Archive for the ‘Redistricting’ Category
John Feehery’s op-ed talks about 2018 in a way I hadn’t seen prior to tonight. Feehery opens his op-ed by saying “Money, message and ultimately the map, in equal measures. That’s what wins political campaigns.” I couldn’t agree more.
Back in 2011, I wrote lots of articles about redistricting. The effects of redistricting didn’t highlight themselves in 2012 because that was a presidential election. In 2014, they showed up when Republicans flipped the House. This year, redistricting is likely to kill the national Democrats’ wave. The GOP landslide of 2010 wasn’t just about winning 63 net seats in the US House. It went well beyond that. When I wrote this post, I wrote about watching the Journal Editorial Report. During the show, they said “Republicans gained 680 state legislative seats in last Tuesday’s elections.
According to their map, Republicans control both houses of their state legislatures in 25 states. Here’s the list of states where Republicans control both houses of the legislature: Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Michigan, Indiana, Alabama, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Maine, Pennsylvania, North and South Carolina and New Hampshire.”
That meant Republicans had full control of the redistricting process. That, in turn, meant that they could strengthen the marginal districts that they just won. Fast forward to Feehery’s op-ed, in which he said this:
Finally, there is the map. Republicans have a distinct national advantage going into this election. As Mother Jones reported in March, “A new report from the Brennan Center for Justice calculates just how much of a landslide Democrats will need in order to win in districts that were drawn specifically to withstand Democratic waves and elect Republicans. The result, report co-author Michael Li says, should be a ‘reality check’ for Democrats.” To win the House, the Democrats would have to win the popular vote by 11 points, according to this left-leaning organization.
Is that possible? Yes. Probably? No.
Let me rephrase that in my own way. Is that possible? No. Is that possible? Not a snowball’s prayer in hell.
