While others stumble, Gov. Scott Walker, (R-WI), keeps getting stronger in Iowa:
DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) —Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker holds a 7-point advantage among Iowan voters over the rest of the crowded Republican field in the scramble for the party’s 2016 nomination for president, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll finds.
The poll, released late Saturday afternoon, shows Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee rounding out the top five in the state, which, as the first-in-the-nation caucus, is a critical battleground for presidential hopefuls.
This isn’t good news for Mike Huckabee or Jeb Bush. It’s terrible news. Jeb isn’t gaining traction in Iowa, perhaps because he isn’t taking it seriously. This is terrible news for Gov. Huckabee, too. Last week, he officially jumped into the race. Predictably, he got a bump when he jumped in. In all likelihood, this is Huckabee’s high water mark, or at least fairly close to it.
This isn’t good news for Sen. Paul, either:
Paul and Carson were tied for second place with 10% of the vote. The Kentucky senator with a strong libertarian streak was most successful among the candidates in attracting moderate Republicans, independents who plan on attending the GOP caucuses and likely party caucus-goers under the age of 45.
The poll found, however, that Paul has seen his favorability rating drop by 9 percentage points in the state since January.
I predict that that drop is just the beginning. Coupled with Sen. Paul’s statements that GOP hawks caused the rise of ISIS and his plan to force the expiration of the Patriot Act, Sen. Paul’s approval rating will continue dropping. On his best days, Sen. Paul was within striking distance of being a top tier candidate. These aren’t his best days. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sen. Paul announced that he was getting out of the presidential race the day after the New Hampshire Primary to focus on running for re-election to the Senate.
This is terrible news for Jeb Bush:
Another telling tally: More than a third of likely Republican caucus participants indicated they’d never vote for Bush; 43 percent view him favorably while 45 percent view him unfavorably.
The Republican candidate will need to either win Iowa or be competitive in the general election. At this point, Jeb isn’t even competitive. Gov. Walker isn’t just competitive in Iowa, he puts Wisconsin in play, too. The thought of flipping Iowa and Wisconsin from blue to red has to be appealing to the RNC. According to this map, flipping Iowa and Wisconsin from blue to red would flip 16 electoral votes:
Republicans have some work to do to flip enough states from blue to red. Still, the Democrats are doing them a major favor by running Hillary. If they weren’t running a candidate that’s scandal-ridden and mistake-prone, they’d have a good chance of winning a third straight term.
Anyone that thinks Hillary will excite the base is kidding themselves. Check out this article:
A focus group of 10 Iowa Democrats this week voiced distaste over some of Hillary Clinton’s tactics and ethics, but agreed she represents the Democrats’ only hope of retaining the White House. Some of the five women and five men assembled at Drake University in Des Moines acknowledged concerns about issues such as Clinton’s paid speeches, her Wall Street ties and the controversy over her use of private email while secretary of state. But they repeatedly praised her experience, especially on foreign policy. Despite acknowledging flaws, most said they like her on balance or don’t see a viable alternative.
This video isn’t good news for Hillary:
That’s the equivalent of saying that they’ll vote for her but they’d rather be watching paint dry or grass grow. If Republicans pick a great young candidate, their enthusiasm gap will be significant.
Gary;
A couple of points on flipping that map. If I have my count right the blue states have 8 Republican governors (including Walker) which means that if you have the right candidate arguing Republican values, those states can easily flip.
Also part of those wins were based on the demographics of blacks, women, and young voters. With no Obama on the ballot the blacks aren’t likely to come out in the record numbers which can help in some of those states.
Throw in proper chasing of the Hispanic and the youth vote a lot of these states can flip.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Some states with Republican governors will never flip. Illinois & Massachusetts are 2 of those states. Having Republican governors just means that those candidates ran great campaigns, nothing more than that.
Gary:
While IL and MA flipping are the last of the states to flip lets start with some other states.
Iowa was carried by the previous Bush and Joni won a race based on the national issues that will be run on in 2016. Flip state #1.
Colorado was carried by the previous Bush and Senator Garner won his race based on the national issues that will be run on in 2016. Flip state #2.
Scott Walker was elected twice (so if he’s the Republican nominee) and showed he was a strong leader not to mention he’s taken the worst punches the democrats can throw makes Wisconsin flip state #3 if he is the nominee.
Obama’s success in Virginia in both 2008 and 2012 can be tied in part because he got more blacks to vote than voted for Kerry. If the Democrat candidate loses lets say 200,000 black votes there goes Virginia.
John K. has won two races for governor. Given that Hillary has shown she might be a weak leader (at least Obama can he looked like a strong leader) Ohio can flip.
New Mexico and Nevada flipping away from Bush to Obama is probably because of the heavy courting of the Hispanic vote by Obama. Rubio just as a Presidential candidate let alone the possible VP and strong Republican governors in both these states having laid the ground can flip them to the Republicans.
Michigan has a strong Republican governor and a Republican candidate making the case hey the policies the democrats are calling for helped create all the problems Michigan has. That makes it possible flip state.
Lets not forget Florida which Democrats are counting on a massive edge from Hispanics and blacks. If the margins go down that makes life difficult for Hillary or the democrat. Throw in that Rick Scott has shown tough leadership that makes the Republican look better.
That’s like nine states that can flip. The thing that I will want the Republican nominee to do and I think Walker can do it far better than the other to explain to the youth hey this is how you will be better off. Republicans have also been given an open door to get blacks to seriously think voting Republican if they make the case hey look at how the democrats have let you down.
What will hurt the democrats a lot of these votes are votes they have already put in the bank. Imagine the damage if the Republicans can pull off that robbery.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN