This summer, Gov. Dayton, the DFL and ABM (pardon the repetition) have talked up Minnesota’s economy well beyond reality. As part of their schtick, they’ve talked about how they’ve solved Minnesota’s deficits. They’ve done nothing of the sort.
Gov. Dayton’s and the DFL legislature’s appetite for spending is never satisfied. The gap between more and enough never closes. Whatever they’ve spent isn’t quite enough.
Last month’s revenues came in significantly short of the projection. It came in $69,000,000 short of the projection. That represents a 6.6% shortfall. Further, revenues have fallen short of projections 5 of the last 6 months, with July’s shortfall being the biggest shortfall thus far.
While this doesn’t prove that Minnesota is headed for a recession, it means that we’re likely heading for another significant deficit. With the likelihood of another deficit increasing with each revenue shortfall, the question then becomes how Gov. Dayton and the DFL would fix the deficit.
History often serves as a guide. In February, 2007, Minnesota had a $2,200,000,000 surplus. The Rainy Day Fund was full. The DFL legislature spent every penny of the surplus. When the economy slowed, the DFL spent down the Rainy Day Fund.
With revenues falling short of projection and with Minnesota’s economy shedding 4,200 jobs in July (plus revising June’s job numbers down by 3,600), there’s no question a significant deficit is on its way. The only questions left are a) how big will the deficit be and b) how soon will Gov. Dayton and the DFL admit that their budget didn’t fix the deficit.
This has ramifications beyond Minnesota’s economy, too. Gov. Dayton and the DFL have an incentive for not admitting that their policies have failed. If these economic figures got out during a gubernatorial debate at the Great Minnesota Get Together, Gov. Dayton and the DFL would be put on the defensive by Minnesotans.
I hope that Jeff Johnson highlights these economic statistics in his stump speech. If he starts highlighting the fact that Gov. Dayton’s tax increases have led to shrinking revenues and job cuts, he’ll paint Gov. Dayton and the DFL legislature into a corner.
Technorati: Mark Dayton, Deficits, Jobs, Revenue Shortfalls, DFL Legislature, Dayton Tax Increase, DFL, Jeff Johnson, Debates, Great Minnesota Get Together, MNGOP, Election 2014
If Jeff Johnson doesn’t point out these economic stats along with Dayton’s ineptness, he’s a fool. If he or any other republican tries to run a “nice” campaign, they are going to get beat by the DFL machine.
I agree.