The Hill is reporting that Tarryl is gearing up for another run at Congress. They’re asking whether it’ll be a rematch against Michele Bachmann:

Minnesota Democrat Tarryl Clark is showing signs of preparing for another challenge to Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.).

The state senator sent an e-mail to her supporters Thursday urging them to donate to Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.). The team-player move; Ellison won reelection by some 40 points, might be aimed at shoring up her party support ahead of 2012.

“As we regroup and recommit ourselves to organizing for victories in 2012, I would like to take a moment to ask you to join me in thanking my friend, and one of our campaign’s greatest supporters, Congressman Keith Ellison,” she wrote. “Keith has been a progressive voice not just for Minnesota families but for the millions across the country, and the globe, who are without a voice in Washington.”

If Clark does decide to run again, she’ll definitely need all the fundraising help she can get. Bachmann raised $13.2 million in the 2010 cycle and has $1.97 million in the bank, according to Minneapolis Star Tribune, citing her latest Federal Election Commission filing.

Clark raised about $4.5 million for the cycle, according to her pre-election FEC filing.

Bachmann defeated Clark by about 13 points last cycle.

First, it isn’t foolish for Tarryl to maintain her visibility. The reality is, though, that she’s been exposed as a liberal this past election. Though she tried portraying herself as the true conservative in the race, the results speak for themselve.

If the district doesn’t change fairly dramatically, Tarryl will face a stiff, uphill fight against Michele. If the district changes substantially, Tarryl might find herself pitted against Chip Cravaack. Another possibility is that we’re put into the 7th District, where she’d either have to challenge Collin Peterson, which isn’t likely, or she’d be pitted against Lee Byberg.

I wouldn’t rate Tarryl as the favorite against Michele, Chip Cravaack or Lee Byberg. Michele would beat Tarryl like a drum because Tarryl was exposed as a tax-hiking liberal. That isn’t a good position to be in.

Tarryl wouldn’t be the favorite against Chip Cravaack either because the 8th District is largely exurban or rural, with lots of pro-life and 2nd Amendment voters in the district. That isn’t the type of demographic group Tarryl does well with.

Finally, Lee Byberg ran a strong campaign against Collin Peterson. Last year, people didn’t think he stood a chance against Peterson. Now they know different. In 2008, Peterson won by a 72-28 percent margin. It was understandable why people viewed him as unbeatable.

Things changed significantly in 2010, when Peterson defeated Byberg by a 55-38 margin.

Frankly, Tarryl wouldn’t do well in CD-7 because she’s significantly to the left of Collin Peterson. That won’t play well in CD-7.

The bottom line is this: Tarryl fared much better playing in the relatively small pond of the state legislature. I won’t say that her running for Congress is out of Tarryl’s league but it’s definitely a major step up, one she didn’t show well in this time.

Let’s remember that Tarryl got alot of contributions simply because she was opposing Michele. I heard more than a few pieces of scuttlebutt how Pelosi and the DCCC wanted to defeat Michele so badly that they were directing contributions in Tarryl’s direction moreso than she might otherwise have gotten.

Whoever the opponent, Tarryl’s facing an uphill fight.

Technorati: , , , , , , , ,

3 Responses to “Is A Tarryl vs. Michele Rematch in the Offing?”

  • walter hanson says:

    Gary:

    Keep in mind her thinking includes:

    * Obama is on the ballot so a whole lot more Democrats will vote.

    * Bachmann might be the Senate candidate thus it will be a whole lot easier to out fundraise and beat the person in the six.

    * The Republicans will be blamed for the still bad econonmy instead of the Republicans.

    * She’s a politician who doesn’t know how to function in the private sector.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  • Gary Gross says:

    Walter, I hate disagreeing with you but Obama will drive independents away from the DFL, not to them. Michele Bachmann won’t be the Senate candidate. The DFL will attempt to blame the GOP for the bad economy but we’re on the side of the angels on spending & taxes so let the DFL shout to the mountaintops. Tarryl is a terrible fit for the district. PERIOD. She’s staunchly pro-abortion to the point of abortion on demand. That won’t play well in this district anytime soon.

    The only reason why Tarryl did this well with fundraising is because she ran against Michele, which meant Pelosi told Democrats’ donors to funnel huge amounts of money to her campaign. If St. Cloud is suddenly put into the 8th District, she’ll have to run against Chip Cravaack, which is an uphill fight for Tarryl on her best days.

  • walter hanson says:

    Gary:

    Keep in mind I opened my comment her thinking includes. That is what I think Clark is thinking.

    She’s dead wrong, expect maybe for the comment I made that she’s a politician who doesn’t know how to function in the private sector.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

Leave a Reply