This past Saturday, I watched the Journal Editorial Report on FNC. As with most weekly shows, JER focused on analyzing how deep the GOP gains were. According to moderator Paul Gigot, Republicans gained 680 state legislative seats in last Tuesday’s elections.

According to their map, Republicans control both houses of their state legislatures in 25 states. Here’s the list of states where Republicans control both houses of the legislature:

Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Michigan, Indiana, Alabama, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Maine, Pennsylvania, North and South Carolina and New Hampshire

I’m relatively certain that Florida, Texas, Georgia and the Carolinas will gain seats in the next six weeks. With Republicans controlling both houses of the legislature and the governorships in those states, that’s a huge advantage going forward.

This Politico article offers a preliminary look at which states gain or lose House seats:

A new estimate of House reapportionment gains and losses resulting from this year’s Census reveals a larger-than-expected impact on Florida and New York. According to Washington-based Election Data Services, which reviewed new Census data from a private-sector demographic firm, Florida would gain two House seats and New York would lose two seats.

They would join two other states that already were projected to have multiple-seat changes. Based on the tentative Census data, Texas is expected to gain four House seats and Ohio likely will lose two seats.

According to the EDS estimate, six other states each would gain one seat: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. Eight states would each lose one seat: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.

In addition to the Florida and New York changes, the other major switch in the projected reapportionment is that Missouri will lose a House seat instead of Minnesota, according to EDS President Kimball Brace. He released the study for a redistricting seminar of the National Conference of State Legislature in Providence, Rhode Island, this weekend.

Based on the 2008 election results, states that Obama carried will lose 15 EV’s. That’s before factoring in the likely return of Ohio and Florida to the GOP column. In 2012, Ohio and Florida account for 47 EV’s. All totalled, President Obama has lost 61 EV’s just on these shifts. That’s before factoring in the likelihood of him losing Virginia and North Carolina, worth another 28 EV’s.

In 2008, President Obama collected 365 EV’s. Subtracting 89 EV’s from that total still gives him 276 EV’s as a base, leaving him with no margin for error for re-election.

The GOP gains made in state legislatures and governorships strengthen Republicans going forward, with the additional bonus of making President Obama’s re-election significantly more difficult.

Democrats’ spin about what Tuesday’s results meant were predictable. Still, the depth of progress in terms of state legislative seats gained, legislatures controlled and governorships in GOP control tells a story Democrats likely don’t want to discuss anytime soon.

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