I’ve said before that the Sorosphere bloggers were missing the point on the Cravaack poll showing it to be a tight race. Other warning signs indicate that Rep. Oberstar is in trouble. This information is surely causing Rep. Oberstar alot of heartburn:

Steve Biondich, a 29-year-old maintenance mechanic at the ArcelorMittal Minorca Mine near Aurora, said the United Steelworkers local usually endorses Oberstar as a routine matter. It did again this year, but the August vote was closer than expected after Cravaack visited the mine.

“That was shocking in itself,” Biondich said.

Local 6115 President Ray Pierce downplayed the tally, saying some of Oberstar’s supporters weren’t paying attention.

I talked with Chip shortly after this endorsing meeting. He said that the vote was 28-25 in favor of Oberstar. That’s a 53-47 percent margin that gives Oberstar 80 percent without him working on it.

Mr. Pierce’s statement that “some of Oberstar’s supporters weren’t paying attention” simply isn’t credible. The meeting was called for the purpose of endorsing either Rep. Oberstar or Chip Cravaack. This wasn’t a long meeting with an extensive agenda.

UPDATE: Michele Bachmann just sent out this fundraising letter:

As you may have heard, our neighboring Congressional district has become an exciting race. A recent poll showed conservative challenger Chip Cravaack statistically tied with 35-year liberal incumbent Jim Oberstar. We have the best chance we’ve ever had of taking back a seat the liberals have held for 63 years and we need your help.

Last week at a press conference in Minneapolis, Newt Gingrich said the race in Minnesota’s 8th District was, “going to be one of the great upset stories in the country this year.”

Referencing a poll showing the race in a dead heat Gingrich said, “I was startled by the poll numbers. I suspect Oberstar is startled by the poll numbers.”

Today, Chip has launched his first campaign ad.

On the other hand, Oberstar is a typical big-government entrenched liberal politician. He failed his constituents by voting for Obamacare, Cap and Trade, and a stimulus bill that will burden our children and grandchildren for generations. He claimed he was pro-life and then voted for the pro-abortion Obamacare.

Chip Cravaack needs to get his message out to defeat this entrenched liberal. Will you click here and contribute as much as you can today, whether that be $25, $50, $100, $500 or the maximum contribution of $2,400? We desperately need more constitutionally sound conservatives in Congress, and Chip Cravaack won’t let us down.

Please help me get Chip the resources he needs to defeat entrenched Jim Oberstar. The wind is at his back, now let’s pull together to push him over the finish line!

Michele Bachmann

Based on Michele’s fundraising ability, I wouldn’t be surprised if Chip’s coffers fill up fast. If Chip can start running ads about Oberstar’s voting for Cap and Trade and his indifference towards getting the PolyMet mine running, rest assured that Chip will cast Rep. Oberstar in an extremely negative light.

In fact, I’ll take a big step here. If Chip gets the money to run those ads on Oberstar’s voting for Cap and Trade and his indifference toward getting PolyMet up and running, Chip will win.

That doesn’t mean Chip’s team can coast the rest of the way. They can’t. They’d better keep knocking on doors and making the phone calls and running commercials until a minute after the polls close.

Liberal pundits like Ember Reichgott-Junge who have scoffed at the possibility haven’t paid enough attention to what’s happening on the ground in the Eighth District. They’re ignoring the fact that a healthy portion of the district’s population is the exurban territory just north of Michele Bachmann’s district.

They’re ignoring the fact that unions, traditionally the margin of victory for Rep. Oberstar, have turned against him over his industry-killing vote on Cap and Trade.

This is the IRON RANGE, people. There’s only 2 major industries in northern Minnesota: mining and shipping. Oberstar alienated people in both industries with his Cap and Trade vote.

If you ask how I know this, it’s because I’ve gotten emails from unionists saying that they’re upset with Oberstar and that they’ve marched in parades for Chip.

I can’t blame them. Rep. Oberstar is supposed to represent their interests and look out for their interests. Instead, he voted with Speaker Pelosi in flushing the mining industry down the toilet.

Rest assured that those miners are taking this VERY PERSONALLY. Their representative sold them down the river. People thinking that won’t fire up these people is kidding themselves.

There’s a huge buzz about this race and rightfully so. Oberstar and his liberal pundit friends can ignore the warning signs if he’d like but that doesn’t mean they aren’t there.

I won’t be surprised to wake up Nov. 3 and find that Eighth District voters fired him and told him to go back home to Maryland.

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10 Responses to “Chip Cravaack: Is victory within his reach?”

  • MplsSteve says:

    I was in Duluth over the weekend. As most people do, I drove up there on Highway 35.

    While realizing that lawn signs don’t vote, they can sometimes be an accurate gauge of a candidate’s support.

    I saw a fair amount of Cravaack lawn signs along 35 and in some of the small towns I stopped at along the way. Up in Duluth, Oberstar lawn signs were in stronger evidence – although I did see a stronger than usual number of Cravaack signs in Duluth.

    I didn’t watch much TV up there so I couldn’t say who was winning the battle of the airwaves.

    I see the Iron Range/Duluth Democrats as so reflexively locked into voting Dem that unfortunately, I can’t picture them voting against Oberstar.

    On a side note, I am perfectly willing to be proven wrong and in fact, would like to be proven wrong.

  • Gary Gross says:

    Steve, You’re right that Iron Range Democrats usually reflexively vote for Oberstar. That won’t be the case this time because he voted to kill their industry when he voted for Cap & Trade. About a third of the volunteers for Chip’s GOTV operation are self-described conservative Democrats. I’ve gotten emails from a couple of union workers who were irate that Oberstar voted, in their minds, to kill the mining industry.

  • eric z says:

    Gary, being a carpet bagger did not hamper Kline too much, and it may not hurt this guy.

    Your theme was part of Strib coverage:

    http://www.startribune.com/politics/local/105001184.html?page=1&c=y

    Have a look. Both Kline and this guy are ex-military, and each did move to Minnesota as if given marching orders. But Kline’s set himself up well in a conservative district, and Oberstar’s district is, like Oberstar, conservative.

    It will be a race. Certainly it will keep Oberstar at home, not going to do fundraising for other DFL people elsewhere in the state.

    It’s good you are following the contest.

  • eric z says:

    One other thing, Gary, Emmer at the head of this off-year GOP ticket will not energize many Iron Rangers to switch from generally DFL. The women up there do vote, and Emmer’s biggest weakness is with women voters, who probably view him as someone whose son they’d not want their daughter to marry.

  • MplsSteve says:

    Regarding Eric Z’s previous post…

    Other than his money, I look at Mark Dayton and frankly can’t see much there in terms of wanting my daughter to marry someone like him.

  • Gary Gross says:

    I’ve tried being polite about this but let’s be honest. Mark Dayton hasn’t proven that he’s mentally stable enough to handle the job. Between his recent problems with alcoholism & depression, there isn’t proof that he can handle the stress of being chief executive.

  • Paul Starkovich says:

    When you see Oberstar up here in Ely meeting secretly with the tree huggers,not the Ely people that voted him in,year after year,id say he’s worried!Him and Dayton are so pathetic,there at the junior colleges druming up votes from kids that dont even live in ourstate or district. As a vermillion junior college alumni,it is sad to see certain teachers,hauling kids to vote on our tax dollors. I will never support or volunter to help vermillion junior college again! Paul Starkovich

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