The latest MPR-Humphrey Institute poll isn’t worth the bandwidth it’s printed on. Here’s the poll’s least credible finding:

Party Allegiances Strained, Emmer Coalition Crumbling
The usual party coalitions that unify nearly all Democrats and Republicans behind their Party’s standard bearer have broken down in the 2010 gubernatorial contest. In an extraordinary breach, 4 out of 10 Republican voters have not yet declared for Emmer. Dayton is also struggling but not as extensively as his Republican opponent; a third of Democrats are not supporting him at this time.

In a dramatic breakthrough, Horner is now drawing 22% of Republicans, starting to fulfill his plan to raid the GOP base. He is drawing far less Democrats (10%) while also taking a fifth of independents.

According to the graphics, Tom Emmer is only drawing 59% of GOP votes. That isn’t credible after seeing poll after poll showing Rep. Emmer and Sen. Dayton getting 70+ percent of their parties’ support.

Not surprisingly, the MPR-Humphrey Institute overpolled Democrats, with 48 percent identifying themselves as Democrats, 38 percent identifying themselves as Republicans and 12 percent not identifying with either party.

This summer, a report said that Republicans and Democrats were almost at parity.

This information flies in the face of the horserace numbers:

Among the 18% of likely voters who are undecided, they are predominantly Democrats (51%) rather than being Republican (25%) or independent (24%).

Compare that statement with this statement:

Minnesota voters have awoken from their summer slumber. More than 8 out of 10 Minnesotans are interested in the November elections, a substantial increase that is being propelled by the energizing of formerly turned-off Democrats.

According to the first statement, of those people who remain undecided, half of them identify themselves as Democrats. In the second statement, Minnesota Democrats are energized. It’s impossible to reconcile those statements. How can someone say that Democrats are both energized and undecided?

It seems to me that people don’t get energized if they don’t have something to be energized about. If that seems incoherent, check this out:

The sharp shift from the deadlocked race in August to Dayton’s lead a month later stems in part from Democrats being more likely to vote. In the August survey, 46% of likely voters were Republican compared to 41% who indicated they were Democrats and the 13% who said they were independent. By late September, there were more Democrats (48%) than Republicans (38%) who were likely voters; independents remained largely unchanged at 12%.

This indicates a bad sample. There’s no way Republican intensity dropped 8 points in a month. Talking with contacts around the state, intensity with Republicans is increasing.

Another reason why this poll doesn’t have any credibility is because independents aren’t punishing Horner or Dayton for their unserious budget plans. Independents aren’t partisan by nature, meaning they demand competence.

Sen. Dayton’s “work in progress” budget hasn’t balanced in two tries. In addition, he initially committed to increasing education funding and that it’d happen “without exception and without excuses.” When his budget fell short the second time, Sen. Dayton admitted that he’d have to postpone repaying the education shifts until 2014.

Breaking promises isn’t the way to prove you’re competent. Bungling your budget twice isn’t the way to prove you’re competent, either.

Rasmussen’s latest polling refutes the MPR poll in terms of Republican support for Rep. Emmer:

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Minnesota Republicans support Emmer, a state legislator who has been endorsed by Sarah Palin. Dayton, a former U.S. senator, has the backing of 82% of the state’s Democrats. Horner, a public affairs consultant and former Republican, is favored by three percent (3%) of GOP voters and 10% of Democrats.

It’s one thing to have support be off by 10 points between polls. It’s another when there’s a 29 point gap. Since Rasmussen is one of the most reliable pollsters out there, I’ll trust his numbers before I’ll trust the MPR-Humphrey Institute’s numbers.

The KSTP-SUSA poll says that Horner is taking as much support from Dayton as from Emmer. Their horserace number is 38 percent Dayton, 36 percent Emmer. Rasmussen’s horserace number is 42 Emmer, 41 Dayton.

Now I’m supposed to believe that Emmer’s horserace support has dropped 12 points while Dayton’s horserace support has stayed the same? I don’t think so.

This race is tipping in Tom Emmer’s direction, though it’s still far from a done deal. This poll, along with the Minnesota Poll, aren’t worth the bandwidth they’re printed on.

Technorati: , , , , , , , ,

2 Responses to “MPR’s Junk Poll”

  • Aaron Brown says:

    So what’s the bandwidth used on this post worth then?

    Just joshin’, just joshin’

    Humphrey polls have been suspect in the past, but I still see a slight advantage for Dayton. Probably another Mid-40s to Mid-40s election with the IP at 12-15 … unless something dramatic happens one way or the other.

Leave a Reply