There’s a reason why Bob Shrum has never managed a winning presidential campaign. He’s a tone-deaf true believer. That’s certainly apparent in his latest column, in which he states emphatically this:

Republicans had assumed they were harnessing the energy of the Tea Party movement. Instead, with the ABC-Washington Post poll now registering majority disapproval of the Tea Party, Republicans find themselves in an accelerating march of folly. As a result, they have diminished their moment and will capture fewer seats in 2010.

In Nevada, Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid saw his strongest potential opponent impale herself on the far right’s opposition to health reform, proposing to “repeal and replace” it with a barter system of chickens for medical care. Instead, Republicans nominated Sharron Angle, who sounded less weird than Chicken Lady but who is, in fact, decidedly more extreme—determined to dismantle Social Security, Medicare, and the Department of Education just for starters. Angle’s now whitewashing all that from her website, but Reid will hold her to it—and likely hold his Senate seat, which should have fallen to Republicans.

Perhaps Mr. Shrum should’ve read Scott Rasmussen’s polling before writing something as foolish as this:

Sharron Angle, following her come-from-behind Republican Primary win Tuesday, has bounced to an 11-point lead over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada’s closely-watched U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Nevada, taken Wednesday night, shows Angle earning 50% support while Reid picks up 39% of the vote. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

As bad as those numbers are, these statistics will make any thoughtful campaign manager start writing a resignation letter:

Despite their hotly-contested primary, Republicans already appear to be solidifying behind Angle who now earns 88% support among voters in her party. Reid draws 68% support from Democrats. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Angle by 10 points.

The Senate Majority Leader only gets two-thirds of his own party in his own state to support him? That’s political death. I’ve thought that it’s kinda impossible to beat your opponent when your own party is abandoning you but that’s just me. What do I know?

From Kentucky, where Senate nominee Rand Paul has pushed the GOP over the ideological edge, to California, where GOP voters pushed their newly minted nominee Carly Fiorina onto an ideological outcropping from which she almost certainly can’t defeat Democrat Barbara Boxer, the party is squandering its best chances for November.

I just watched Hannity interview Rand Paul. I can’t say that I was immediately a Rand Paul fan but, after tonight’s interview, I’m certain that Rand Paul will be an outstanding senator.

Meanwhile, Carly Fiorina will defeat Sen. Boxer because the three biggest issues facing Californians are jobs, jobs and jobs. Sen. Boxer’s credentials in creating jobs are nonexistent. Sen. Boxer’s only credentials on anything are in the area of global warming and ‘reproductive rights’.

The last I looked, neither issue is skyrocketing to the top of California’s voters priorities list.

On the other hand, Fiorina’s understanding of free market principles and capitalism make her a natural choice for California voters, especially those voters in California’s central valley where the water’s been shut off because the federal government is protecting a minnow rather than helping farmers.

Anyone thinking that Sen. Boxer won’t get pummeled in that part of the state is foolish. What’s foolish, though, is this type of thinking:

Obama’s real danger, and it was Carter’s true weakness in 1980 as well, is a faltering economy. The recovery could stall or plunge into a double-dip recession. That’s why the anemic job numbers for May drove the Dow down, and had to dismay even the most optimistic White House aides.

What recovery? Yes, we had a couple reports say that our economy was expanding. Yes, we had a couple jobs reports that weren’t negative. I didn’t think that those statistics were proof that the economy was expanding, at least not without the government priming the pump with 10s of billions of dollars of printed money, aka debt.

That isn’t a recovery, at least in the traditional sense. If you’d like to argue that it’s a hopeful blip, I might be willing to agree with you. Anything beyond that, though, and I’ll pass.

Bob Shrum should be applauded for being a loyal true believer for the past half century. He shouldn’t be applauded, however, for his grasp of reality because it doesn’t exist.

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Cross-posted at California Conservative

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