The DRL poll showing IP gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner gaining 18 percent of the vote is what junk polling looks like. First, let’s look at the methodology.

According to the Pi-Press’s article, 800 adults were polled between May 28-June 2. Polling that doesn’t screen for likely voters in a midterm election are essentially worthless in predicting the outcome. Polling that doesn’t screen for likely voters and that’s conducted over a holiday weekend won’t show accurate readings for Republicans.

Among the three main DFL gubernatorial candidates, former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton has the biggest lead over Emmer, 40 percent to 28 percent.

House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the DFL-endorsed candidate, led the GOP candidate, 38 percent to 28 percent.

Former House DFL Minority Leader Matt Entenza also topped Emmer, 34 percent to 27 percent.

Tom Horner, the Independence Party’s endorsed candidate for governor, finished third in all three trial heats, receiving 17 percent to 19 percent of the vote.

That last paragraph is the important paragraph because it’s the tipoff that this poll isn’t on the up and up. Let’s start with the fact that Tom Horner’s name recognition hasn’t hit double digits yet and might never hit double digits. This poll would have me believe that people who’ve never heard of Tom Horner would vote for him.

Let’s rephrase that more accurately. According to this poll, Tom Horner is getting twice as many votes as there are people who know him. That’s intellectually insulting.

Let’s look at Sen. Dayton’s numbers, too. Roughly 32-35 percent of Minnesota’s registered voters are Democrats. This poll would have me believe that Dayton’s message of taxing the rich is helping him get every liberal plus a healthy portion of independents but that Tom Emmer’s message of cutting spending, creating a great business climate and restructuring government isn’t playing well with Republicans or independents.

With all due respect, I might’ve been born at night but it wasn’t last night. That part of the results are intellectually insulting, too. This line is worth thinking about, too:

By 53 percent to 42 percent, a majority said they are starting to believe “the problem is not with one political party, but it is with all incumbents.” Based on those responses, Morris said, “People are fed up with partisan gridlock, and they’re looking for alternatives.”

What a startling coincidence. DRL President Bill Morris just happens to be supporting a gubernatorial candidate who’s trying to portray himself as an alternative to the major party candidates. If I didn’t know better, I’d almost think that poll questions were written in such a way as to elicit a certain type of response.

Alas, I’ll never know because Morris hasn’t published the poll questions. Frankly, this ‘polling’ isn’t worth the bandwidth it’s printed on.

Technorati: , , , , , , , , , ,

Leave a Reply