According to Stuart Rothenberg’s hotlist, Michele Bachmann and Erik Paulsen were dropped from the list:

Total seats in play: 79
Republican seats: 11
Democratic seats: 68

Dropped from the list:
MN-3 (Paulsen, R), MN-6 (Bachmann, R), OH-2 (Schmidt, R), CA-44 (Calvert, R), CA-47 (Sanchez, D), GA-8 (Marshall, D)

This isn’t surprising considering Michele’s monstrous Q1 fundraising total and Erik Paulsen’s strong Q1 fundraising total. Both incumbents have well in excess of $1,000,000 CoH at this point.

This isn’t looking like a decent year for Republicans. Based on everything that I’m hearing, it’s more likely that it’ll be an historic year for Republicans. Consider some facts from Doug Schoen’s and Patrick Caddell’s op-ed:

Recent polling shows that despite lofty predictions that a broad-based Democratic constituency would be activated by the bill’s passage, the bill has been an incontrovertible disaster. The most recent Rasmussen Reports poll, released on April 12, shows that 58 percent of the electorate supports a repeal of the health-care reform bill, up from 54 percent two weeks earlier. Fueling this backlash is concern that health-care reform will drive up health costs and expand the role of government, and the belief that passage was achieved by fundamentally anti-democratic means. Already we are seeing the implications play out with the retirement of Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), who had effectively become the face of the last-minute, closed-door negotiations that resulted in passage.

Put simply, there has been no bounce, for the president or his party, from passing health care.

In fact, Monday’s Gallup report showed the president’s weekly job approval rating at a low of 47 percent. And as the Democratic Party’s favorability has dropped to 41 percent, the lowest in Gallup’s 18-year history of measuring it, this week’s Rasmussen Reports survey shows the Republican Party with a nine-point lead in the generic congressional vote. Moreover, independents, who are more energized than Democrats, are leaning Republican by a 2-to-1 margin.

Democrats put themselves in a mess by voting for health care. Everyone knows that the Democrats’ bill won’t lower health care costs and it won’t shrink the deficits. If Democrats thought that it would shrink the deficit, they wouldn’t need to talk about adding a VAT onto the tax increases in the bill on top of the huge tax increase that will happen when the Bush tax cuts expire.

Michele’s message of repealing Obamacare is resonating with people. Others preaching that gospel are getting traction, too. The fact that almost 60 percent of likely voters want repeal of the Democrats’ health care law says that, in addition to not liking the bill, people don’t appreciate the Democrats’ unwillingness to listen to We The People.

One reason people hate Obamacare that isn’t discussed often is the huge listof new tax increases that were signed into law. That total, according to the Republicans’ House Ways and Means Committee website, reaches $670,000,000,000. If people read the Republicans’ detailed list of new taxes, they’ll be furious long before they finish the list.

Erik Paulsen and Michele Bachmann fiercely opposed the Democrats’ health care bill. Now that it’s law, they fiercely oppose the taxes included in the law. As a result of that, they’re moving into a stronger position going into campaign season.

What I’ll be looking for from Rothenberg, Charlie Cook and others in the months ahead is how the tax issue and the health care issue are playing. Last night, Fred Thompson said something that’s worth repeating: that they didn’t think a tidal wave was coming until mid-September. This year, pollsters and political analysts are already sounding the alarms that this might be an historic year for Republicans.

Rep. Bachmann and Rep. Paulsen are benefitting from being on the right side of this wave.

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