There are few political consultants that have a bigger tin ear than Bob Shrum. That’s why I’m beseeching Democrats to follow Shrum’s advice in his latest column:

The President may speak and even seek bipartisanship, but he’ll be met with a closed fist. So Democrats in Congress need a strategy of their own that goes beyond “every man for himself”, or every woman, in the case of Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. They can’t be on the defensive; they can’t save themselves by fleeing their president or their principles. They have to draw clear dividing lines on their own terms with the Republican opposition. Put a series of big issues to a vote, giving the other side its chances to cooperate, or manifest its true character.

On the day when the Democrats lost their supposedly filibuster-proof Senate, and official figures showed an unexpectedly high number of new unemployment claimants, the still-majority party actually fought back. They issued a series of jobs proposals and announced that they intend to vote on them in the Senate next week. If the Republicans filibuster in lock-step, Democrats should attack that as a “no” vote on jobs, pure and simple. And maybe the newly minted lawmaker from Massachusetts, who claims that he’s a “Scott Brown Republican,” will realize that if he becomes a party-line vote for Mitch McConnell, he won’t be reelected in 2012. He just might decide not to filibuster jobs.

First, let’s note that President Obama can talk about bipartisanship (or any other subject) all he wants but the American people want positive results. Second, let’s understand that President Obama’s and Speaker Pelosi’s whining about “the failed policies of the last eight years” has lost its potency. The reality is that people haven’t seen positive results, except if they’re members of a public employees’ union, from the stimulus bill or from President Obama’s budget.

Most importantly, people are transitioning to a belief that today’s economic woes aren’t the result of “the failed policies of the last eight years” but of the “the failed policies” of the past year. The people understand that President Obama didn’t get us into this recession but they know that they hired him to direct us out of it.

Mr. Shrum’s advice runs contrary to Scott Rasmussen’s polling on what’s getting people upset:

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Americans say the size of the federal budget deficit is due more to the unwillingness of politicians to cut government spending than to the reluctance of taxpayers to pay more in taxes.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that just nine percent (9%) of adults put more blame on the unwillingness of taxpayers to pay more in taxes.

Ninety-four percent (94%) of Republicans and 91% of voters not affiliated with either major party place the blame on politicians, and two-thirds (66%) of Democrats agree.

Polls vary about which issue is the most important issue but the deficit, the economy and jobs consistently poll as the most important issues. Shrum’s advice of telling Democrats to run on another pork-filled stimulus bill is telling Democrats to run contrary to the will of the people.

That’s certainly their right but it’s a foolish strategy, one that isn’t in touch with today’s reality:

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Americans are at least somewhat concerned about the size of the federal budget deficit, including 65% who are very concerned. Only 12% are not very or not at all concerned about the size of the deficit.

The bad news for Democrats is that running with a strategy that’s centered on the belief that we aren’t spending enough in this environment is stupid. The worst news is that changing courses now will be exposed as an election year attempt to get re-elected. I’ve said before that credibility matters.

In fact, I’m willing to say that credibility and consistency on fiscal discipline will matter more to voters this fall than all other issues combined. Election year epiphanies won’t play well with people seeking consistency with regards to fiscal discipline. They aren’t in the mood for gimmicks. They’re demanding the real thing.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of voters also think the unwillingness of politicians’ to cut government spending is a bigger problem than taxpayers’ unwillingness to pay more in taxes.

Families and small businesses are in the habit of setting sensible priorities. The Obama/Pelosi/Reid leadership team hasn’t bothered with setting sensible priorities because they’re mostly interested in passing everything on their special interest allies’ wish lists. That’s a shortcut to electoral disaster.

That’s why I’m encouraging Democrats to take Mr. Shrum’s advice. The more kool-aid that they drink, the bigger the disaster will be this November.

Technorati: Bob Shrum, Spending, Stimulus, Stim II, President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, Harry Reid, Wedge Issues, Democrats, Polling, Election 2010

Cross-posted at California Conservative