It’s ages before next November’s election but it’s starting to look like Tarryl Clark and Maureen Reed face steep uphill fights if they hope to defeat Rep. Michele Bachmann. According the Politico’s article, Tarryl and Reed are trailing by high double digits:

According to a PPP automated survey of 719 district voters, conducted Dec. 17-19, conservative GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann has a 53 percent approval rating, compared to 44 percent who disapprove. Six percent were not sure.

In a head-to-head matchup with Democratic frontrunner Tarryl Clark, Bachmann gets 55 percent to Clark’s 37 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The numbers are roughly the same when Bachmann is paired with Democrat Maureen Reed.

Andrea Mokros, Tarryl’s spokeswoman, gave this reply in response to the polling:

“It’s plenty early. In a district with the state’s highest unemployment rates and the highest foreclosure rates, people need more than a ‘polarizing’ figure, with almost half of those asked saying she’s more interested in being a conservative leader than an advocate for them. Ask this question again when we’ve had a chance to cut through Congresswoman Bachmann’s relentless FOX News spin and introduce ourselves to voters, and remind them of her efforts to block jobs and much-needed reform, and take a pass on any and all efforts to deliver real results for the district,” Mokros said.

“Tarryl has already been elected in a district that is a microcosm of the 6th, proving she can win over Democrats, Republicans and independents. When people get to know Tarryl, this will be a race.”

Tarryl’s name recognition will improve, though I don’t think that it’ll be a determining factor in this race. The reality is that Tarryl’s a bad fit ideologically for this district. Minnesota’s Sixth District is fiscally and socially conservative. Tarryl is neither. She isn’t even moderate, though that’s the image she’s tried creating.

Ms. Mokros said that will warm to Tarryl when they get to know her, which will make this a competitive race. I’m sure she’ll gain some support but I’m thinking that it’ll be limited. Tarryl can’t hide from the fact that she’s enthusiastically voted for the 5 biggest tax increases in Minnesota history, including several tax increases when Minnesota had a $2,200,000,000 surplus.

When people find out that she voted for these tax increases after telling supporters that there wasn’t enough money “to do many good things”, voters in the Sixth district will get the picture.

When people find out that Tarryl’s been part of the DFL leadership that focused on finding ways to fund government instead of figuring out how to improve Minnesota’s business climate, I’m betting that people will understand that Tarryl’s a typical liberal.

When small business owners are reminded that they’ve been targeted by Tarryl’s tax increases, I’m fairly certain that these entrepreneurs won’t support Tarryl.

Combine Tarryl’s deficiencies with Michele’s commitment to fiscal discipline at a time when the nation is crying out for fiscal sanity. If voters contrast Tarryl’s commitment to green energy and Tarryl’s tepid support for fossil fuels with Michele’s commitment to American energy independence, including the lifting of the moratorium on nuclear power, I’m betting that more people pick Michele’s view.

It’s inevitable that the race will tighten. I’m just not convinced that it’ll tighten to the point that it’s among the most competitive races in the nation.

Technorati: Polling, Michele Bachmann, Energy, Nuclear Power, Small Businesses, Fiscal Restraint, Conservatism, Tarryl Clark, Tax Increases, Spending, Special Interests, DFL, Election 2010