Following the NRSC’s annointing Charlie Crist as the next senator from Florida, the conventional wisdom was that it was a fait accompli that Crist would win the primary going away and be Mel Martinez’ replacement in the Senate. This is why I frequently reject conventional wisdom.

I understand why the conventional wisdom picked Crist as their odds-on-favorite to replace Sen. Martinez. He had proven fundraising ability and high name recognition. That’s alot to conventional thinkers. It’s immaterial, though, to TEA Party activists and 21st Century campaigners.

Another thing that the CW didn’t take into account was that Crist is more liberal than Olympia Snowe and Dede Scozzafava combined. This article does a good job highlighting Crist’s biggest problem:

Six months on, however, Crist looks vulnerable. His poll numbers are down, though he still has a sizable, if shrinking, lead over Rubio. What he does not have is the enthusiasm of the state’s Republican activists, who have repeatedly indicated their preference for Rubio in straw polls.

What Crist is lacking is support within the Florida GOP, which is everything in determining who wins the GOP primary. Rubio’s supporters will run through walls for him. Crist’s supporters will sip lattes and bemoan the lack of civility and moderation within the Republican Party.

The only thing that’ll matter at the end of August, 2010, is that Marco Rubio will be the odds-on-favorite to be the next senator from Florida.

If Rubio can convince enough of those voters that he deserves their vote, and raise enough money to put a dent in Crist’s six-to-one fundraising advantage, Rubio could effectively steal the nomination out from under Crist, and in the process help put the GOP on a path that some fear will lead to its marginalization.

I can’t say that Crist’s fundraising advantage isn’t meaningless. What I will say, though, is that Jon Corzine outspent Chris Christie by a huge margin and still lost. Crist’s problem isn’t corruption like Corzine’s was. his problem is even worse: He’s a liberal running when GOP activists are insisting on fiscal conservatives.

The Washington strategists and party bosses haven’t figured out that moderation is what caused Republicans to become Democrat lites. The DC strategists still haven’t figured out that the American people are worried that the debt will cripple this nation and destroy our economy.

There’s a reason why Republicans have led in the Generic Ballot polling since June 28. There’s a reason why TEA Party rally attendance is getting the news media’s attention. While it’s true that independents and conservatives attend the TEA Parties, it’s equally true that they’re looking for people who don’t believe in government controlling more and more of our lives. They’re looking for principled leaders, not triangulation specialists like Crist.

Rubio has aggressively hammered Crist (left) for supporting the president’s $787 billion stimulus package, offering up a photo on his Web site of the two at a February rally in support of the bill. (The two literally hugged at the event.) In an interview Monday, Rubio said he was “disturbed” by Crist’s recent claim that he didn’t actually endorse the legislation.

“I think it’s part of a broader problem in American politics, and that is people who will say or do anything in order to win an election…including lie about their record,” Rubio said.

There’s another thing that the American people, TEA Party activists included, don’t like and that’s politicians who’ll say anything to get themselves out of a tight spot. That won’t work in this TEA Party, YouTube world.

The final analysis of Charlie Crist is that he’s liberal, that he doesn’t have a set of core principles and that he’ll say anything to get out of a difficult position. I might be wrong but I’m betting that that isn’t the way to win a conservative primary.

Technorati: Activism, TEA Parties, Fiscal Restraint, Marco Rubio, Core Principles, Conservatism, GOP Primary, Charlie Crist, President Obama, Stimulus, Pork, Mel Martinez, RINOs, Triangulation, Election 2010

Cross-posted at California Conservative