When King and I talk about opposing political perspectives, we refer to it as a testable theory, meaning that it represents an opportunity to see which theory is right and which theory isn’t. This morning, thanks to Ruy Teixeira and Michael Graham, we’ve got such an opportunity. First, it’s Teixeira’s position that Tuesday night didn’t representa repudiation of President Obama or his overreach:

TO hear Republicans tell it, Tuesday’s elections, in which their candidates captured the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey, were a repudiation of President Obama and indicated a voter shift toward their party. They should calm themselves down. The results don’t show this and, in fact, suggest some rather daunting challenges for the Republicans.

Fair enough. If Mr. Teixeira wants to defend that position, we’ll give him that opportunity. It’s Mr. Graham’s position that President Obama’s ability to deliver Democratic victory after Democratic victory is diminished after Tuesday night:

One year ago today, pundits were writing off the American right for the next election cycle, the next decade; some even said the next generation was lost to the Republicans. And now, just 10 months into the Obama presidency, what’s really been lost?

Virginia (Obama, plus five in 2008), New Jersey (Obama, plus 15) and probably the massive health reform bill (Obama, plus 28 speeches, press conferences and town halls, to no effect).

Graham also notes a specific person who should worry in 2010:

Tuesday’s election proved that one of the other things Obama can’t win is another term in the corner office for Deval Patrick. Instead, it looks like New Jersey deja vu all over again.

You remember New Jersey, where an unpopular and largely inept governor was relying on Obama’s star power and his state’s solid Democratic majority to get him re-elected. That, and Gov. Jon Corzine’s ability to spend $30 million, $12 million more than his opponent.

And if all that didn’t work, Corzine had an independent candidate pulling votes away from his challenger, too.

Sound familiar? If you work in the Massachusetts governor’s office, it should. Except Deval Patrick doesn’t have Corzine’s millions, and Obama won’t be able to spend as much time in Massachusetts during the national 2010 midterms as he was able to in New Jersey.

These competing theories can’t both be right. My job is to determine which is wrong.

In New Jersey, this analysis makes no sense. While an approval rating isn’t the same thing as the percentage of votes received, both figures are good measures of a politician’s overall standing. So it’s significant that Mr. Obama’s approval rating among 2009 voters (57 percent) was identical to the percent of the vote he received there in 2008. In Virginia, while the president’s 2009 approval rating was 5 points less than his 2008 voting result, the 2009 electorate was also far more conservative than last year’s. Besides being far older and whiter than in 2008, the voters in Virginia on Tuesday said they had supported John McCain last November by 8 points, meaning they were not favorably inclined toward President Obama to begin with. In fact, given that only 43 percent of these voters said they supported Mr. Obama last November, his 48 percent approval rating among them does not indicate a shift away from him but rather toward him.

First, Mr. Teixeira’s fuzzy math doesn’t ring right. First, independents agreed with Gov-elect Christie and Gov-Elect McDonnell by a 2:1 margin:

Exit polls showed independents, who made up nearly one-third of voters in both Virginia and New Jersey, went for the Republicans by a margin of nearly 2-to-1.

Nearly a third of the voters Tuesday night identified themselves as independents. While it’s true that people didn’t say that President Obama’s policies directly influenced their decisions, it’s foolish to think that President Obama’s policies didn’t contribute to the growing anti-Washington, ‘politicians-can’t-get-anything-right’ mood.

In Virginia, national issues like health care were cited as driving forces for independents voting for McDonnell. Since the Virginia legislature isn’t debating a health care bill, that means that independents were talking about Pelosicare and Obamacare.

Let’s look at another factor that Mr. Teixeira isn’t talking about. In both Virginia and New Jersey, President Obama campaigned frequently for Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine. He didn’t have any effect on the Virginia election. Having a president be a total non-factor isn’t the type of thing that White Houses brag about. Instead, they’d rather sweep that under the proverbial rug, which Mr. Teixeira does by ignoring it.

In New Jersey, President Obama didn’t play a role in the race tightening. Looking at the polling, Corzine didn’t make it a closer race either. That’s because the main reason why Corzine closed the gap was independent candidate Chris Daggett. It’s interesting to note that people started returning to the Christie camp after Democrats admitted that they were paying for robocalls for Daggett.

Democrats essentially said that their candidate couldn’t win on his own and that President Obama was powerless to reverse the tide. At minimum, we can say that President Obama was impotent in winning these high profile elections.

The conventional wisdom is that Creigh Deeds lost because he ran a bad campaign and because he didn’t embrace President Obama enough. I’ll respectfully disagree. Ten months into his administration, President Obama’s agenda has made him unpopular with independent voters. Cap and Tax doesn’t sit well with Virginia’s coal-mining industry. Obamacare worried suburban voters mightily.

Mr. Teixeira, please explain how you can say that Tuesday’s elections weren’t a repudiation of President Obama’s policies when they fed into the growing angst voters feel, especially if they’re recently unemployed. Tell me how the public’s realization that ARRA is a failure isn’t a reflection on President Obama.

Mr. Teixeira can cite exit polling statistics if he’d like but the proof is in the major swing in voters in a single year.

The good news is that we’ll have another testable moment next year. The bad news for Democrats is that the results quite likely won’t change much.

Technorati: Elections, Chris Christie, Bob McDonnell, Independent Voters, GOP, Jon Corzine, Creigh Deeds, President Obama, Obamacare, Democrats, Ruy Teixeira, Michael Graham, Activists

Cross-posted at California Conservative