Though we’re still fifteen months away from the 2010 midterms, I’m already looking for indicators of how much trouble the Democrats are in. I’d say I found an indicator in this post. Here’s what I read that left me a little astonished:

House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers (D-Mich.) could face a tough reelection race in 2010, according to a new, independent poll released this weekend.

40 percent of Conyers’s constituents said he deserved reelection, according to a poll conducted earlier this month by the Lansing, Mich.-based Deno Noor Polling, in conjunction with the Rossman Group and Perricone Group. 44 percent of Detroiters represented by Conyers said they would prefer to elect someone else. 15 percent were unsure or didn’t know.

These are difficult numbers for an incumbent. Anytime the incumbent is that far below 40 percent, re-election is difficult, assuming Republicans can find a competent candidate to run against him.

I’m not guaranteeing this will be a GOP pickup. In fact, I could easily picture Conyers retiring in favor of a younger man that isn’t carrying Monica Conyers’ baggage on his back.

Whatever happens with Conyers, Democrats shouldn’t expect much help from President Obama. Though his supporters try to put a positive face on things in this article, there’s no way to take them seriously:

Democratic activists said that Mr. Obama’s election last fall provides ample proof that he is capable of overcoming gaffes and bad poll numbers. Whether he will do that this fall, though, remains clouded by a health care debate that is staggering in its complexity.

Deputy press secretary Bill Burton said the administration has long recognized that it could see dents in the widespread support the president garnered when he first took office if it undertook an initiative as potentially divisive as health care reform.

“If getting health care reform done were a matter of making easy decisions and doing politically popular things, it probably would have gotten done a long time ago,” Mr. Burton said.

What these spinners aren’t mentioning, though, is that then-Sen. Obama made his comeback while people still trusted him and before they saw his extremist agenda. President Obama was touted as a political healer with all the right policies to cure what ailed the United States.

Independents are abandoning him like he was radioactive. That’s because President Obama isn’t trusted like he was last year. After the election, I said that President Obama should be frightened because prior to his election, he was seen as successful because of his speaking ability. I said in January that he’d be judged on whether he got things done that have improve Americans’ lives.

Thus far, he’s failed that test miserably.

Rasmussen has tracked President Obama’s slippage since President Obama’s inauguration. Yesterday, Rasmussen’s polling showed President Obama with a -14 rating:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 27% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14. These figures mark the lowest Approval Index rating yet recorded for this President. The previous low of -12 was reached on July 30.

By comparison, President Obama’s Approval Index was +30 on January 22.

Democrats smiled with confidence when they ran against President Bush in 2006. Now the tide has turned. Now they get to find out what it’s like to run with an unpopular president tied around their necks.

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Cross-posted at California Conservative

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