After reading this article, it didn’t take long to decide which candidate I’d side with.

The expected announcement Tuesday by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist that he’s running for the Senate would seem to be a rare bit of good news for beleaguered Republicans. But while Crist is a brand-name recruit with sky-high approval ratings and bipartisan appeal, his path to keeping the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez in GOP hands has at least one significant roadblock: Sunshine State conservatives.

Despite Crist’s widespread popularity, he faces a primary in which he will have to make his case to a restless GOP base dissatisfied with his high-profile advocacy for President Barack Obama’s stimulus and his handling of the state’s budget woes.

And he will be facing a vigorous fight from former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, a young, outspoken Hispanic conservative who is capturing the attention of activists in Florida and across the country.

Rubio began telegraphing his attacks against Crist even before the governor’s formal announcement. In an interview with POLITICO, he singled out Crist for abandoning conservative principles and compared the governor to moderate Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine and Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania.

Why would we support another Chuck Hagel? Look at what Ed posted about Gov. Crist:

The Stimulus. Crist was in favor was in favor of Obama’s economic stimulus package, and in fact campaiged with the President for its passage.
Cap-and-Trade. Crist supports cap-and-trade and signed a bill to create a statewide cap-and-trade system in Florida. This isn’t necessarily that radical a stance for a Florida politician, a state which has relatively few jobs in carbon-intensive industries and conversely might suffer disproportionately from rising sea levels and stronger Atlantic hurricanes (Mel Martinez, Florida’s outgoing Senator, was one of seven Republicans to vote in favor of cloture on last year’s climate change bill). Crist also somewhat notoriously reversed his former opposition to offshore drilling during John McCain’s 2008 election campaign. Nevertheless, he is likely to be a reasonably reliable Democratic vote on environmental issues.
National Health Insurance. Unclear. Last May, Crist signed a bill to provide for low-cost, no-frills health insurance for the roughly 20 percent of Floridians who are uninsured. The bill does not contain an individual mandate, but does prohibit insurance companies from discriminating on the basis of age or pre-existing conditions. The smart money is that Crist would be a gettable vote on health care but would balk at a public option.

If Crist were elected, how would we differentiat between Crist and Dianne Feinstein? A vote for Crist is a vote for a filibuster-proof Senate. It’s replacing a squishie with a RINO. What’s troubling is that the NRSC endorsed Crist today:

“I am pleased today to endorse Gov. Charlie Crist for the United States Senate. With his record of reform in Florida, I know that Gov. Crist will bring a fresh perspective to Washington in our efforts to fight for lower taxes, less government and new job creation for all Americans. Charlie Crist is a tireless advocate on behalf of all Floridians and one of only three Governors who earned an ‘A’ from the CATO Institute for his efforts to restrain spending and cut taxes last year,” Cornyn said.

In addition to his supporting the Porkulus bill and Cap and Trade, Crist willingly supported tax increases. In other words, Crist is to the left of Mel Martinez, the man he’s running to replace.

Crist’s other problem is Marco Rubio. Here’s what Michael Barone wrote about Rubio:

First, Rubio is a smart guy, with good political instincts. He has been a policy innovator and has the capacity to make a case for conservative public policies.

Second, the primary is limited to registered Republicans, a pretty broad-based electorate but one that still leans to the right on policy issues. And there’s reason to believe that registered Republicans really hate the stimulus package. In Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter, who beat Pat Toomey 51%-49% in the 2004 Senate primary, saw his numbers against Toomey drop to the 27% level after he publicly supported and cast a critical vote for the stimulus package. Not even his quick and nimble move to oppose the card check bill restored his standing among Republicans. Hence his party switch. Crist’s enthusiastic embrace of the stimulus package could be a real liability for him in a Republican primary.

While Crist has instant name recognition, he’s a liberal through and through. Meanwhile, Rubio is charismatic, articulate and conservative. In a post-Tea Party world, being conservative matters. Frankly, this is an easy pick in the GOP primary. With people getting fed up with Washington’s out-of-control spending, voters are looking for people who opposed Porkulus. It’s impossible to picture Rubio voting for Porkulus. Crist not only enthusiastically supported the bill, he campaigned throughout Florida with President Obama to waste $800,000,000,000 on a bill that guarantees tax increases, high inflation and interest rates that will choke the US economy.

John McCormack’s endorsement of Rubio is worth reading, too. Here’s the part that jumped out at me:

Florida politicos say Crist is “unbeatable” in a Republican primary, and a Quinnipiac poll from early April suggests as much: In a primary match-up between Crist and other potential GOP candidates, the governor trounced Rubio 54 percent to 8 percent. The same poll, however, found that 78 percent of Florida Republicans didn’t know enough about Rubio to have an opinion about him.

That will change between now and the August 2010 primary, as the media flock to cover the most prominent conservative-versus-moderate Republican primary campaign in the country. When Republicans in Florida get to know Rubio, they will discover a dynamic speaker with an appealing biography and a deeply held conservative philosophy.

Crist currently has a fundraising advantage but that might change soon. RedState already has a post outlining why Crist shouldn’t run and why Rubio should be the candidate. Here’s their best shot at Crist:

Rubio is everything older Republicans like Crist should be encouarging: he’s young but already experienced as a leader, he’s telegenic and a good speaker, he’s conservative, and yes, he’s Latino, a demographic that a more inclusive Republican party would be reaching out to, not spurning.

Crist has some important things that candidates need to win elections, mostly name recognition and a fundraising operation. What’s holding him back, though, is his being wrong on the most important issues of the day and the charisma gap between himself and Rubio.

We saw in 2008 that it’s foolish to underestimate the candidate with the advantage in charisma.

Technorati: RINO, Charlie Crist, Tax Increases, Cap And Trade, Porkulus, President Obama, Conservative, Marco Rubio, Hispanic, Charisma, Election 2010, Primary