I’m sure Franken’s campaign would disagree with me on this but I’d say his campaign faces a stiff, uphill battle. According to this Strib article, it’ll take a miracle to win the recount:

To win his case before the state Canvassing Board, Franken must prevail on more than 6 percent of his challenges of Coleman votes even if Coleman fails to succeed on any of his challenges, a Star Tribune analysis shows.

If the outcome of past election disputes provides a clue, Franken will have a hard time reversing enough votes to win, said one veteran elections official who has been involved in the Senate recount.

“Based upon the kinds of challenges I’ve been looking at in the last two weeks, I think that’s just not going to happen,” said Joe Mansky, Ramsey County elections manager.

The likelihood of Sen. Coleman not winning any challenges is practically nonexistent. I also think that the ballots in the infamous fifth pile will be tiny. (Minnesota election law contains 4 provisions for rejecting absentee ballots.) The reason I think that is because they’re starting with 12,000 rejected absentee ballots, which sounds like alot but it isn’t.

Of those 12,000 rejected absentee ballots, it’s my opinion that the vast majority will be rejected for valid reasons. That’s my opinion because the people dealing with absentee ballots are professionals. I’ll be surprised if there’s 1,000 absentee ballots that were improperly rejected. I wouldn’t be surprised if that number was more like 250-500. That’s before you start considering which candidate got more votes.

Each step outlined above diminishes Franken’s margin for error.

If that isn’t daunting enough, consider that that’s before Scott County, one of the reddest counties in Minnesota, does its recount. It’s also important to remember that Sen. Coleman’s lead is currently at 282.

Add up those hurdles and it isn’t easy to see Franken’s path to victory.

Mr. Mansky agrees with me on this point:

“Franken’s best [and perhaps his only] chance will be in court, not with the recount,” Mansky said.

That’s what I opined in this post.

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2 Responses to “Uphill Isn’t the Word”

  • Chuck says:

    Sounds good to me Gary. Hope you’ve got it figured out. I’m still hopeful but still a bit aprehensive too.

    Never trust Franken and his ilk to do anything right, honest, or honorable.

    Still in an undisclosed but secure location. :)

    Chuck

  • eric z says:

    fyi – Gary and readers.

    Tomorrow, Dec. 2, IS the Georgia runoff election date.

    Presuming it is not close enough to get into recount matters, it WILL be decided before Minnesota matters are final.

    I think Gary is right, if Saxby Chamblis is reelected, there’s less cause for making greater noise in Minnesota.

    It will be interesting to see the test of that idea – in actual practice, depending on what Georgia voters do.

    Gary – Do you have a good website link to give to monitor this runoff? If so, please post it. If I find one, I’ll suggest it in a comment, and put it up on Crabgrass.

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