Rob Davies isn’t conducting the Strib’s Minnesota Poll. These results just make it look like he is. Let’s be clear about this: this poll is fiction. This headline gives that away:

Franken bypasses Coleman as voters react to attack ads

Here’s what the poll is reporting:

DFL U.S. Senate candidate Al Franken has moved into his first solid lead over incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.

The survey, conducted Tuesday through Thursday by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among 1,084 likely Minnesota voters, shows Franken leading Coleman 43 to 34 percent. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley is supported by 18 percent of respondents.

This memo from Glen Bolger nails it perfectly:

Let me walk you through the facts.

In the September edition of the Star Tribune Minnesota “Poll,” Senator Coleman led Al Franken 41% to 37%, with former Senator Barkley pulling up the rear with 13%.

Three short weeks later, Franken pulls ahead with 43%, Senator Coleman at 34% and former Senator Barkley at 18%.

Coincidentally, or not, in this poll not only did Franken’s standing increase by a net of 13 points, the sample saw a net increase 13% for the Democrats.

I’ve long maintained a rule of thumb with polls is that media polls are generally junk. The only polling done for media companies that have been accurate have been the SurveyUSA polls done for KSTP-TV. Speaking of which, they have a poll out that flips the totals:

Q1: If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for: (choices rotated) Republican Norm Coleman? DFL candidate Al Franken? Or Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley?
A: Norm Coleman 43%, Al Franken 33%, Dean Barkley 19%, 5% undecided.

Here’s what I find interesting in the SurveyUSA poll:

Norm Coleman gets 83% of Republicans, a healthy 10% of Democrats and 39% of Independents. By comparison, Al Franken is only getting 65% of Democrats, 6% of Republicans and 26% of Independents. It isn’t that shocking that Al Franken gets less support amongst Independents than Dean Barkley. What’s shocking is that Dean Barkley gets 19% of likely DFL voters.

This is worth remembering:

The reality is that since mid-July there have been 11 public polls conducted on the race for the United States Senate in Minnesota. During that time, all but 3 of those polls have shown Norm Coleman leading Al Franken in the race for the U.S. Senate.

Of the last 5 polls that have been conducted, Norm Coleman has held leads in each and every poll–including the most recent KSTP/SurveyUSA poll that has Norm up by 10 points.

It has not been since August that a single public poll (up until the Star Tribune poll) had Franken leading Norm Coleman.

Mr. Bolger is right in calling the Minnesota Poll the “outliers of outliers.”

Let’s not forget that Doug Johnson, an influential Democrat from northern Minnesota, just endorsed Sen. Coleman. That’s sure to carry alot of weight with DFL voters in northern Minnesota.

Let’s remember that Al Franken posted pathetic numbers in the Sept. 9th DFL primary. He even lost 4 counties from western and Central Minnesota. As I pointed out here, he only pulled 55% of voters from Stearns, Benton and Sherburne counties. Most of the voters that voted against Franken are cultural conservatives. It isn’t likely they’ll support someone as far to the left as Franken.

I’ll leave you with a question worth pondering: Considering the fact that the Minnesota Poll is the only poll to put Franken in the lead in several political lifetimes and considering the fact that most of the other polls have had Sen. Coleman leading by high single digits to low double digits and considering the fact that the Minnesota Poll’s history is questionable at best, shouldn’t we ignore the latest Minnesota Poll?

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5 Responses to “Different Pollster, Same BS”

  • J. Ewing says:

    We should never ignore the Minnesota Poll. It tells us what we too many seem to too often forget, which is that the Star and Tribulation is a leftist rag. Besides, we can generally just add 10 points to the Republican or conservative side of the issue, and come fairly close to the right answer. In this case, that would have Coleman leading Franken 39-38. About right.

  • Gary Gross says:

    Jerry, I don’t need to read a Minnesota Poll to remind myself that the Stribulation is a leftist rag.

    I do agree, though, that adding 10 points to the candidate with the R behind their name is a legitimate rule of thumb.

  • kb says:

    Just to remind folks, the old pollster’s last name is Daves, not Davies.

  • Freealonzo says:

    While I don’t think Franken will beat Coleman by 10, you have a couple of exaggerations in your post. First Doug Johnson is not that influential. If you’re banking on Northern Minnesota going R in the Senate race because of the Doug Johnson endorsement, you’re going to be very sorry on November 5.

    Second the Survey USA/KSTP poll is known to be as right leaning as the Strib Poll is left leaning, with it’s internals showing a nearly parity in R’s and D’s. Few can argue that there are more voters who call themselves D’s than R’s right now in Minn. (although not to the extent in the Strib poll).

    Based on the toxic level associated with the Republican brand, I am guessing that Franken holds a 3-5 point lead.

  • Gary Gross says:

    If you’re banking on Northern Minnesota going R in the Senate race because of the Doug Johnson endorsement, you’re going to be very sorry on November 5.

    I don’t expect northern Minnesota to go GOP this November. We don’t need it to. It’s all about keeping margines in Franken’s strong areas as low as possible.

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