In his latest article, Nate Silver wrote “So here’s a question we can ask with our nifty scenario generator. Is Pennsylvania a must-win for Biden? No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn’t great but is also higher than, say, Trump’s overall chances on Election Day 2016.”

I don’t have the statistical models that Silver has. Silver isn’t some genius that walks on water, though. They got it wrong in 2016. I still remember Brit Hume on the FNC set flipping through betting websites talking about how they were changing as more states fell into the Trump column. Hume also noted after North Carolina was called that 538 changed its odds of Trump winning. But I digress.

Let’s apply some old-fashioned common sense to this election. It’s well-documented that virtually nobody (of any political stripe) is interested in Joe Biden. He’s drawn crowds of dozens of cars to his drive-by rallies. President Obama campaigned for him yesterday and drew 273 cars in Orlando Florida. President Trump held 3 rallies yesterday that attracted almost 50,000 in Omaha, NE:

By now, nearly 70,000,000 votes have been cast early. The previous record was in 2016 with 58,000,000 ballots cast early. When early voting closes, it’s possible that 80,000,000 ballots will be cast early. Some of the people will have stood in line 3-4 hours to vote. COVID is certainly changing those numbers. People are voting against President Trump, too. The average person attending a Biden-Harris-Obama rally has to stand in line 2-3 minutes maximum. How likely is it that they’ll suddenly stand in line 3-4 hours for a candidate that nobody’s that interested in?

By comparison, Trump rally attendees are used to waiting 3-4 hours to get in. How likely is it that they’d stand in line for hours to vote for President Trump? I’d put it at ‘very high’. It isn’t a stretch to think that the polls are off by a country mile. The ABC-Washington Post poll that shows Biden leading Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin isn’t a bad snapshot. It’s intentionally dishonest. Newt explains things beautifully here:

In this article, Newt explains what’s happening in Georgia:

Gingrich, who represented Georgia’s 6th District for 20 years in the U.S. House, told host Bill Hemmer that he is confident Trump will take the state by at least six percentage points. The current RealClearPolitics polling average shows the president and Democrat Joe Biden in a dead heat, with each receiving 47.2%.

However, Gingrich admitted “the state has changed a great deal” in the 21 years since he left office. “It’s more cosmopolitan and suburban,” he told Hemmer. “There is a fantasy that this is the time the Democrats will win. My guess is Trump will carry Georgia by six or seven … The turnout on the Republican side will be bigger than people expect.”

Gingrich also predicted that incumbent Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., will ward off his challenge from former House candidate Jon Ossoff, while the other, more crowded Senate race will go to a January runoff that will be won by the Republican candidate.

It’s time for Republicans to stop wondering if President Trump will win. He will. The next thing is to work hard to give President Trump a unified GOP Capitol Hill. If that happens, which I think is likely, we’ll have a fantastic next 4+ years.

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