This article highlights how tenuous Joe Biden’s lead actually is. Forget what the polls say. Most of them oversample Democrats so they aren’t that predictive.

Nevada has gone Democrat for awhile now. It’s important to remember that Bernie crushed Biden here, mostly with an impressive turnout with Hispanics. Bernie’s win in Nevada got Establishment Democrats panicking. It wasn’t that much longer than Jim Clyburn rescued Biden’s campaign. But I digress.

Biden had a 5-point advantage in the state at the beginning of September, according to a University of Nevada-Las Vegas Lee Business School poll, the first state survey of the general election. But this week, the Cook Political Report shifted the state’s rating from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”

Separately, a New York Times/Siena College survey released on Saturday showed Biden up by 4 points, 46% to 42%, after polling of likely voters taken Sept. 8-11. Democrat Hillary Clinton won Nevada by 2 points in 2016.

Biden’s campaign better hit that next gear soon. If they don’t, President Trump will seize that momentum and ride it through the election.

A surprise win in Nevada, which Trump lost in 2016, could help the president compensate for a loss in another battleground ground state like Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nevada has only six Electoral College votes, compared to Michigan’s 16 and Pennsylvania’s 20, but Trump’s campaign sees a re-election victory path that would entail winning a series of smaller states anchored by Minnesota instead of the Rust Belt states that put him in the White House.

Speaking of Minnesota, that’s getting more interesting each week. According to this video, President Trump has made a bigger-than-major ad buy there:

At the start of the segment, Pete Hegseth said that the Trump campaign has made $14,000,000 worth of ad buys in Minnesota. That’s a monster ad buy for a state the size of Minnesota. Had President Trump spent $5,000,000 on advertising in Minnesota, that would’ve been a major commitment. Trump’s spending 3 times that. That’s before factoring in the army of volunteers and the field staff in Minnesota.

This also explodes the myth that the Trump campaign/RNC is running out of money. You don’t spend $14,000,000 unless there’s promising data showing that there’s a great shot at flipping the state. President Trump obviously thinks he’s got a legitimate shot at winning Minnesota. Let’s remember the ‘experts’ that ridiculed him for stopping in Wisconsin the final Sunday of the campaign. The ‘experts’ said that stopping in Wisconsin was “campaign malpractice.”

Trump will seek to seize on the new advantage with a visit to the Silver State this weekend. The campaign swing includes two rallies, one in Reno on Saturday, followed by another in Las Vegas on Sunday, as well as a roundtable discussion on Latino issues at the Treasure Island casino. He’ll also look to appeal to Latino voters with a roundtable in Phoenix on Monday.

Following the news of Trump being competitive with Hispanic voters in Florida’s Miami-Dade County, appealing to these states makes tons of sense. The Trump campaign understands that they aren’t running a traditional campaign. That doesn’t mean they aren’t making smart decisions. How often have the ‘experts’ ridiculed Trump, only to get served a heaping helping of crow a day or week later?

Let’s remember, too, that President Trump’s chances of flipping New Hampshire and New Mexico aren’t as remote as the ‘experts’ predict. President Trump won 306 electoral votes in 2016. That means he had 36 electoral votes more than he needed. Let’s play a game of ‘What If?’ and say he loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That puts him at 260 EVs. He still reaches 270 by winning Maine, New Hampshire and Nevada. Trump still wins if he loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, then loses Arizona if he wins Minnesota and Nevada, New Hampshire or Maine.

This is far from over but President Trump has multiple paths to victory.

3 Responses to “Donald Trump’s path to the White House has lots of options”

  • eric z says:

    … and not one single path to defeat.

    Other than getting fewer electoral college votes than Biden.

    People don’t hate Joe Biden. This is unlike the Clintons, last cycle. People have seen Trump in action. Making statements against the truth. Serving billionaires. Same constituency Biden has. But Biden is a calming presence.

    Gary, would you buy a used car from Donald J. Trump? Fred Trump’s favored son?

    I cannot say you’re wrong, Gary. I never believed anybody could vote for W, so my opinions unfortunately are not dominant.

    Trump could win four more. Racisism might sell.

  • Gretchen L Leisen says:

    So, you never believed anyone could vote for W? ‘Trump making statements against the truth?’

    What planet are you living on? A better question is this – do you ever listen to anything other than the radical leftist media of CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC and CBS? You are ill-informed.

    I will counter your statement with another – I can not believe that anyone would vote for John Kerry, a loser if there ever was one.

  • Chad Q says:

    You and your progressive pals have so overused the word racism to describe every little thing that offends you that the word no longer means what you think it means.

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