While primary election vote totals aren’t perfect general election predictors, the often show whether polling is right. If that’s true again this cycle, then Biden’s lead might be more illusion than fact.

In the all-important battleground states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump beat Biden in each state. In Wisconsin, Trump beat Biden 616,705 to 581,611. In Ohio, Trump beat Biden 682,843 to 623,186. In Pennsylvania, Trump beat Biden 934,524 to 914,904. In Florida, Trump beat Biden 1,163,000 to 1,077,000.

These vote totals suggest that the polling is off by a significant margin. This puts Biden’s campaign in a bit of a pickle. With his dementia, they can’t really afford to put Biden on an aggressive campaign schedule. They can’t afford to play a run-out-the-clock game either.

Another thing that shows up in these primaries is that President Trump’s base is definitely with him. He’s had some difficult weeks according to DC talking heads but that hasn’t translated into voting margins in swing states. Now, with Biden essentially signing onto Bernie’s agenda and the Squad’s #DefundthePolice agenda, he’s in danger of losing the suburbs.

If Democrats lose the suburbs, they’ll lose the House. They won’t defeat Trump. Their uphill climb of retaking the Senate majority gets quite a bit steeper. Rashida Tlaib’s belief that Democrats need to listen to the anti-police activists is misguided.

Trump also has historic support within his own party, so far winning more than two million more votes than his total in the 2016 primaries — a new record for the most votes ever cast for an incumbent president. Trump has also set dozens of records for votes cast for incumbent presidents in their respective state party primaries and has won more than 94% of all votes cast in the Republican primaries.

Joe Biden’s lead won’t last now that he’s signed onto Bernie’s agenda. Kevin McCarthy thinks that this represents a surrender:

“This is not a unity group, this is surrendering to the socialists,” McCarthy, R-Calif., said. He went on to note that Biden “has been in Washington for more than 40 years” and “hasn’t been able to” to accomplish much on criminal justice reform and other things.

He was instrumental in passing the 1994 Crime Bill, which led to mass incarcerations of African-Americans. President Trump started fixing Biden’s mistake with the First Step Act. Now Biden has signed onto a lite version of Defund the Police. That won’t play well with suburbia.

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