Is Joe Biden poised to surprise Bernie Sanders in a couple of big Super Tuesday states? Based on RealClearPolitics aggregation of polling in Texas and North Carolina, the answer is yes. I’m not predicting the outcome of those states’ primaries but I’m seeing some late changes in the polling. Let’s start with the Texas polling:

If Biden can pull off the upset in Texas, something that’s still very much in doubt, that changes everything delegate-wise. Even if Biden and Bloomberg don’t win but have strong showings, those are delegates that Bernie very much wants and needs. Then there’s North Carolina:

Notice the margin in the final polling. It looks like an outlier but I’m not certain of that. Remember Biden’s wide margin of victory in South Carolina. Biden doubled up Bernie’s support so I’m totally willing to accept this as legitimate. If it’s a wipeout in North Carolina and if Biden and Bloomberg grab a bunch of delegates in Texas, that mitigates a large portion of the California damage from Bernie.

3 Responses to “Biden’s Super Tuesday surprises?”

  • eric z says:

    Below the Mason-Dixon line is where Biden gets primary strength. Solid red states; meaning a thumb on the primary scale translates to zippo in the general. Strange politics about four more and stopping Bernie. They want to do it without having to go nuclear via superdelegates. They do not care if progressives stay home in November. They care more of derailing Bernie than derailing Trump. Proprietary in attitude, the young can wait and be winnowed.

  • Chad Q says:

    The smart democrats (oxymoron I know) know what a disaster a Sanders nomination would be not only for them but for the US. I’m not sure why anyone is for a guy who has literally done nothing his entire life except bitch about the US and praise communists.

  • Gary Gross says:

    Biden didn’t campaign in MN & only spent $11,000 in Massachusetts & won both states. Credit the establishment for that. Biden didn’t win those states.

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