With Super Tuesday literally just days away, the question that all of the pundits are asking is whether Joe Biden will get a bounce from his victory Saturday night. A quick scan of the RCP average of polls for Super Tuesday primaries shows Bernie Sanders with leads in most of the states, including delegate-rich Texas and California. Sen. Sanders also leads in Virginia and Massachusetts. The RCP average shows Sen. Sanders running away with Colorado and Utah.

If things go well for Sanders on Tuesday night, he’ll be in a dominant position to win the Democrats’ presidential nomination. That’s what I’m expecting. Further, I’m expecting Biden to do just well enough to continue but not well enough to contend. I expect Klobuchar, Warren and Buttigieg to drop out of the race, with Klobuchar having the best shot at doing well enough to stay in the race.

California will send a harsh signal to the Democrats. Here’s why:

There’s an outside possibility that Sanders will be the only candidate who will win California delegates. If that’s what happens, Sanders will be virtually unstoppable. Sanders also leads in Texas:

This doesn’t sound like the type of performance Biden and the Democrats’ Establishment needs. If things go according to the RCP average in each of these states, Bernie will be the prohibitive favorite to be the Democrats’ nominee. After that, expect to hear about lots of article with ideas on how to steal the nomination from Bernie.

One Response to “Will Biden get a bounce after SC?”

  • eric z says:

    South Carolina’s pattern is to favor inner party hacks over something else in the Democratic primary and then to deliver the general election to the Republicans because the primary picked an unpopular party-regular creep. 2016 and 2020 look similar, except 2016 was choosing between two candidates and not a crowded field where the South Bend mayor drew more votes than either woman running. And Status Quo Joe outdrew the pair of women, either of which represented a sounder choice. Strom Thurmond’s home state being itself really does not matter, and will not quell the Bern. But the press will spin as if it is major and capable of trending. As if it is “transformational.” What the state did is to give Biden his Lazarus day in the sun.

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