Are Democrats staring at a perfect storm-nightmare scenario in 2020? Obviously there’s too much time between Thanksgiving, 2019, and Election Day 2020 to make a prediction but it isn’t too early to speculate. First, let’s talk about a potential storm brewing on the topic of K-12 education.

The article starts by saying “The night before Democratic presidential candidates took to a debate stage here last week, black and Latino charter school parents and supporters gathered in a bland hotel conference room nearby to make signs they hoped would get the politicians’ attention. ‘Charter schools = self-determination,’ one sign read. ‘Black Democrats want charters!’ another blared.”

Then it continues, saying “At issue is the delicate politics of race and education. For more than two decades, Democrats have largely backed public charter schools as part of a compromise to deliver black and Latino families a way out of failing district schools. Charters were embraced as an alternative to the taxpayer-funded vouchers for private-school tuition supported by Republicans, who were using the issue to woo minority voters. But this year, in a major shift, the leading Democratic candidates are backing away from charter schools, and siding with the teachers’ unions that oppose their expansion. And that has left some black and Latino families feeling betrayed.

This is apparently ruffling a few feathers in Atlanta and other major cities across the nation. Couple this perceived betrayal with record low minority unemployment and rising wages in minority communities and it isn’t a stretch to think that there’s a great opportunity for a pro-GOP realignment within minority communities. That’s what appears to be happening:

A Rasmussen poll released last week showed that 34 percent of black likely voters approve of Trump’s presidency, an increase from last year when it was in the 20s and a finding that lines up with an Emerson poll which showed 34.5 percent approval as well as a drop in support for impeachment.

If President Trump gets one-third of the African-American vote, Democrats will lose in a landslide. (In 1980, then-Candidate Reagan won 44 states and 489 electoral votes.) If Trump gets to 350-375 electoral votes, that’ll be the biggest GOP landslide since George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988.

If Trump does well, it’s impossible to believe that it won’t be a big night for Republicans up and down the ticket. Going into this cycle, Democrats were facing difficult headwinds in maintaining control of the House because Democrats are defending seats that Trump won. That’s why Republicans will likely retake the House majority.

2 Responses to “The Democrats’ worst nightmare?”

  • John Palmer says:

    Gary you got caught in some cynical thinking when you wrote: Charters were embraced as an alternative to the taxpayer-funded vouchers for private-school tuition supported by Republicans, who were using the issue to woo minority voters. Not all Republicans desire taxpayer-funded vouchers since with vochers come strings. Many Republicans do not want any chance for government control over private education. I can not speak for Republicans but I can remind you that the concept of school choice was heavily advocated by Milton Friedman in “Free to Choose”. The reason Friedman pushed school choice was to improve education for all students. Improved education outcomes like an improving economy raises all boats. If school choice also has political benefits that is a beneficial side effect but should not be the only calculous used in improved educational outcomes.

  • Gary Gross says:

    That’s just a quote. Competition is what’s important. Since Democrats insist on a failed monopolistic system that was developed in the 20th century, I insist on the opposite. We talk about the states being the “laboratories of democracy.” Fair enough. I’d modify that, though, & say that conservatism should be where we try new ideas when things aren’t working. With K-12 & higher education, I think in terms of trying new systems in the same way that hockey coaches think of pulling their goalie when they’re a goal or 2 goals down with 2 minutes left in regulation. Their thought is simple: why preserve a 1-goal or 2-goal loss? Let’s play at least for a tie & possibly for a victory?

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