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This NYTimes article highlights in detail the difficulty Keith Ellison finds himself in.

It states “But in recent weeks, Mr. Wardlow has received one of the biggest political gifts of the midterm election cycle, in large part because of his opponent’s fall from grace, after Mr. Ellison’s former girlfriend said that he mistreated her. The charges, which Mr. Ellison denies, have snapped voters to attention across the state. The race has shifted dramatically in Mr. Wardlow’s favor. Last month, Mr. Ellison had a five-point lead among likely voters, according to a Star Tribune/Minnesota Public Radio News poll. But the numbers have more than flipped: Mr. Wardlow has taken a seven-point lead, according to the group’s new poll taken last week.”

Clearly, Ellison’s trend-line is working against him. That’s the least bad news for Ellison. When I wrote this post, I noted this:

Voters in Hennepin and Ramsey counties preferred Ellison in the new poll, but Wardlow was ahead in every other part of the state. Wardlow’s support also grew among voters aged 18 to 34. That age group went for Ellison by a wide margin in the September poll, and while he still leads among such voters, the percentage that backed Wardlow more than doubled.

That isn’t the worst of it. Ellison has virtually 100% name recognition. There’s still lots of potential voters who are undecided. If Ellison hasn’t closed the deal with them, he isn’t likely to.

Here’s the big picture view of the race according to the Strib-MPR Poll:

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