Monmouth University’s latest polling suggests that the big blue wave threatening the Republicans’ majorities in the US House and US Senate isn’t as threatened as before. When asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?”, 42% said that they approved while 50% disapproved. Last month, those that approved was only 32% while 56% disapproved. A 16-point drop in a month is gigantic.

In another troubling sign for Democrats, people polled were asked which party they’d vote for if the “election for House of Representatives were held today”, “47% of registered voters say they would vote for or lean toward voting for the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 45% who would support the Republican. This marks a dramatic shift from last month, when Democrats held a 15 point advantage on the generic ballot (51% to 36%).”

In the running for understatement of the year, Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said “Democrats who counted on riding public hostility toward the tax bill to retake the House may have to rethink that strategy.” That ties directly into this poll question:

The trend definitely favors Republicans. A month ago, President Trump’s approval-disapprove rating was -24. This month, it’s -8. A month ago, Republicans trailed Democrats by 15 points on the generic ballot question. Today, Republicans trail Democrats by 2 points.

If this trend continues, and it’s anyone’s guess on whether it continues, Republicans will hold their majority in the House. If President Trump maintains his popularity rating, Republicans will pick up seats in the Senate, most likely in the 4-6 seat range.

One of the Democrats’ talking points is that Republicans face an election with the wind in their face. I’m a contrarian in that I think Republicans face this election with a gentle summer breeze in their face. If that’s how Republicans weather the storm that the Democrats threw at them the past year, I’d suggest that they’re in great shape.

2 Responses to “Monmouth’s bad news for Dems”

  • John Palmer says:

    Remember, the poll is generic district and states since large states on the coasts vote heavily democrat, the large margins of victory in some state’s and HR districts does nothing for races in swing states and districts. The real measure of a projections is how well the poll models each of the individual elections. On that basis, Democrats need a much larger margin of preference to pick up Senate and House seats. Looking at the Senate seats in play, Republicans have a distinct advantage based on the size of the Trump victory in states with senate races.

  • Gary Gross says:

    If you look at states that Trump won handily, I’d expect Republicans to flip North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana & possibly West Virginia & Ohio. Further, I’ve been impressed with Karin Housley both as a legislator & candidate. I think Tina Smith, at minimum, is in danger of losing the Franken seat. Further, I think Bill Nelson in Florida & Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin have tough fights ahead.

    Of the red states where Republicans are supposedly vulnerable, Dean Heller in Nevada is the only one in danger of losing. If Martha McSally wins the AZ primary, which she should, then that race is essentially off the table.

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