Last night on Special Report, Jonathan Swan and Jonah Goldberg said something that caught my attention. First, Swan said that Sen. Schumer’s capitulation (my words, not his) was a short-term victory for Democrats. Then he opined that it was a long-term victory for Democrats. Shortly after that, Goldberg said that he agreed with Swan. Frankly, I think they’re both wrong. In fact, I think they’re missing something huge that’s playing in the Republicans’ favor in terms of winning the budget fight.

Both men said that Republicans had given away a major bargaining chip by giving in on CHIP. It’s indisputable that Republicans sweetened the pot for Democrats with CHIP so it’s foolish arguing that point. The point that they’re both missing is that the next deadline will require lifting the caps on the military budget. Only a tiny fraction of military units have the spare parts required to be fully ready. Training of National Guard troops is lacking, too.

If Democrats think Republicans won’t beat them over the head with that during the next round of budget talks, they’re kidding themselves. Lindsey Graham is a dove on border security but he’s a hawk on defense spending. If Democrats think that they can shut down the government again without increasing defense spending, they aren’t in touch with reality. That’s a budget fight Democrats will lose if they choose to engage. After Sen. Schumer’s Monday capitulation, there’s little reason to think he’d want to drag the Democrats into another unwinnable fight.

As for building the wall and ending chain migration and the visa lottery, Democrats have already signaled that they’re caving on the wall. Luis Gutierrez, the most passionate open borders advocate on Capitol Hill, told CNN that he’d help build the wall if it meant protecting DACA recipients:

Add onto that the fact that Sen. Schumer told President Trump that he’d be willing to fund the wall during their negotiating session this weekend. Once something is offered in negotiations, it’s impossible to be taken off the table later.

It’s worth noting that the American people are overwhelmingly with President Trump on ending chain migration. Mark Krikorian made an insightful statement when he said “The result is chain migration, in which yesterday’s immigrants decide who tomorrow’s immigrants will be.” Democrats will have a difficult time fighting that image.

Finally, Republicans have an edge in negotiations because President Trump is a skilled negotiator, the American people are with him and he’s got the biggest megaphone on the planet. The Democrats’ losing is just beginning.

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