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For most of 2017, the MSM has predicted a “big blue wave.” Saying that I’m skeptical of that is understatement. First, I haven’t seen many predictions of Republicans losing seats in the Senate. Wave elections happen when the people are in a ‘throw the bums out’ mindset. They’re ‘mad as hell and they aren’t about to take it anymore.’ How can people be mad as hell about House Republicans, who passed the full GOP agenda, but be satisfied with the Senate, which can claim tax reform and confirming Neil Gorsuch as their accomplishments?

It’s important that we remember that the House has a bunch of seats that aren’t as vulnerable as they’ve appeared to be. When the 2010 wave hit, it demolished the House map for a decade. I remember writing about it then. I remember that Republicans didn’t just gain 63 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. They demolished Democrats in state legislatures and governorships, too. Half the states had a Republican governor presiding over GOP majorities in the House and Senate for redistricting. That meant Republicans could redraw districts so that vulnerable GOP districts suddenly became solid GOP districts.

In short, it was a game-changer. Then there’s this:

The Republican fundraising edge suggests a reinvigorated political base, which has historically turned out in droves for midterm elections when Democrats have stayed home. According to a recent Pew poll, more than three-quarters of Republicans approve of President Trump, including an overwhelming majority of evangelical voters.

Recent polling does not even account for the expected bump from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which has already spurred Boeing, Comcast and other U.S. companies to set aside billions of dollars in private investment. As hiring increases and paychecks swell, Republicans will certainly reap electoral benefits after passing tax cuts without Democratic support.

Enthusiasm + fundraising ability = a distinct advantage:

That enthusiasm is there. This afternoon, I received a fundraising email from Karin Housley’s campaign. Her campaign started on 12/19. Here’s the eye-popping information from the email:

During the last two weeks of December, we were able to raise over $150,000!

Call me crazy but I think people are excited about Republican Senate candidates. This information is heartwarming, too:

The Republican National Committee (RNC) raised a reported $130 million in 2017, more than twice the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) haul. Much of it came from digital fundraising, as the RNC added more than 1 million email addresses in the last quarter of 2017 alone.

It’s heartwarming if you’re a Republican House or Senate candidate. As the tax cuts take effect and the economy starts creating hundreds of thousands of jobs and people start feeling like their lives are improving, people will notice that the recovery has kicked in. Every economist worth his/her salt will tell people that there’s a time lag between when a recession officially ends and when people feel like the recovery officially kicks in.

These tax cuts will help people feel like the recovery has officially started. Guy Benson has written some stellar articles on the tax cuts. This is another such article. This illustrates things perfectly:

This will definitely help the middle class, too:

Summarizing, wages are increasing, 401(k)s are getting bigger, people’s electric bills are dropping, non-executive employees are getting bonuses and consumer confidence is soaring. Other than that, things are pretty mediocre. What are those poor Republicans gonna run on?

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