There’s no question whether we’re seeing a tightening of the presidential race. When it comes to figuring out why the polls are tightening, it’s difficult to dispute with Michael Barone, of the most respected number crunchers in American political history. Michael Barone’s latest column is filled with explanations of why the presidential race is tightening.

Turnout is everything to Hillary’s campaign. If she doesn’t win that fight, she’ll lose. It’s that simple. That’s why it’s difficult to think that it’s good news for HRC when Mr. Barone wrote “There are plenty of signs Clinton is poorly positioned to do that. Black turnout and Democratic percentage is likely to be down, at least slightly, from when the first black president was seeking re-election. Polls have shown Hispanics are less interested and motivated by this campaign than just about any other demographic group.”

Simply put, HRC simply doesn’t excite people. Even the people who will vote for her and who support her do so more out of obligation or loyalty than rallying around their rock star. This isn’t good news for the Clinton campaign, either:

Young voters, while repelled by Trump, are not attracted by Clinton. She ran way behind Bernie Sanders among young women as well as young men in primaries and caucuses. Four-candidate polls typically show Clinton running far behind the 60 percent Obama won among under-30s in 2012, with as many as 20 percent preferring Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green candidate Jill Stein.

These demographic groups don’t paint a great picture for HRC. Still, it’s foolish to think that Trump doesn’t have difficulties of his own. Still, it’s difficult to picture someone with a more daunting task than Hillary has.

Think of it this way. People think that she isn’t honest or trustworthy. They don’t think she’s terribly competent, either. They’re certain that she’s gotten preferential treatment with the email scandal. (They’re right about that, BTW.) Finally, there’s this:

The kid gloves treatment she got from the FBI — no recordings, allowing aide and co-conspirator Cheryl Mills in the interview — confirm the impression, created by the intended-to-be-secret meeting of Bill Clinton and Attorney General Loretta Lynch days before, that the fix was in. So does the fact that Clinton and her aides in court-ordered interviews claimed loss of memory 378 times.

The alphabet media will do their best to prop HRC up from now until Election Day. I just don’t know that that’s enough for her to win. This answer won’t help Hillary:

Hillary was asked by a military veteran about her mishandling of classified and top-secret information. Her story changed another time. This won’t help Trump as much as it’ll hurt Hillary. At this point, all that Mr. Trump has to do is look like a legitimate alternative to Hillary. If he pulls that off, then Hillary’s fighting an uphill fight.

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