I’ll bet that most people don’t pay much attention to the impact that illegal immigrants might have on the census that’s taken in 2010. Those that don’t know are about to find out because its potential to change the electoral landscape is getting noticed:

A University of Connecticut study concluded Arizona, Texas and Florida could all see their House delegations increase due to rising populations that include sizable numbers of illegal immigrants.

Although they can’t vote, such aliens are included in the census. The San Jose (Calif.) Mercury News predicted Tuesday the pending 2010 headcount could be the subject of a political fight as Democrats and Republicans jockey for position before House seats are reallocated.

The Connecticut study also predicted California and New Jersey would likely keep their current number of seats while states with fewer immigrants, including New York, Illinois and Ohio, will lose a seat or two.

Don’t think that demographers for both parties aren’t taking note of this. I’m certain that they’re putting together plans for redistricting.

This could have big longterm ramifications in presidential elections. Subtracting electoral votes from New York and Illinois means that Democrats would have to flip some states in 2012 that currently are red states. Couple that with adding electoral votes to ‘safe’ states like Florida and Texas compounds the problem. It isn’t insurmountable but it makes things dicier for Democrats.
It’s impossible to predict what effect this will have in House races until we see how the districts are drawn. Rest assured, though, that we’ll see lots of heated skirmishes once the census information is compiled and distributed.

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Cross-posted at California Conservative

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