Donald Trump has defied political gravity this entire summer. No matter what offensive thing he said, no matter who he offended, Mr. Trump’s poll numbers stayed high or, sometimes, increased. Based on this NBC-Wall Street Journal-Marist poll, that incredible run appears to have ended in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

This poll doesn’t appear to show that Mr. Trump’s numbers have leveled off. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, Mr. Trump’s numbers have dropped — significantly. Iowa’s results highlight this perfectly. In this month’s poll, Mr. Trump leads with 24%, followed by Dr. Ben Carson with 19%, Carly Fiorina with 8%, Jeb Bush with 7%, with Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal getting 6% each. That’s a sharp drop-off from September’s poll, which had Mr. Trump leading with 29%, Dr. Carson with 22%, Jeb Bush with 6% and Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul with 5% each.

It doesn’t get better for Mr. Trump in New Hampshire:

It isn’t coincidence that Trump got exposed at the last debate as not having much of a command of the issues, especially compared with Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina. Put differently, Mr. Trump is failing the ‘commander-in-chief test’.

In interviews afterwards, Mr. Trump said he didn’t want to say what, specifically, he’d do in the Middle East because he wanted Putin and Assad to worry what he’d do. It sounded to many like he was dodging the question because he didn’t have a plan.

Mrs. Fiorina in particular didn’t have a problem telegraphing her strategy. In Mrs. Fiorina’s case, she wanted Putin to know what things she’d do to Russia if she became president.

One Response to “Trump’s slump starting?”

  • eric z says:

    They haven’t yet even started the mud slinging ads, and polls show fickle short term momentary preferences.

    On the Republican side, learn to like John Ellis “Jeb!” Bush. Each party will have its organized elite doing a cramdown. It will be an unpleasant offering, each party. Situation normal …

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