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30th Day Enrollment Numbers Don’t Look Good For SCSU
by Silence Dogood

The first issue of the HuskyData Newsletter listed some of the reporting of data by the university and MnSCU. The thrust of the first graphic focused on headcount and it shows that the headcount enrollment increases from the 10th day to the 30th day to the final enrollment.

From the data shown in the bar graph in the HuskyData Newsletter, the average increase from the 10th day to the final enrollment is 2,319 students. If this number of students is added to the 10th day enrollment, it would project a final enrollment of 15,827. The Fall’13 final headcount enrollment was 16,768. This would be a decrease of 941 students. If the decline was expressed as a percentage, it would be a 5.6% decline.

If the increase in headcount that occurs after the 10th from Fall’12 to Fall’13 (2,256) is used rather than the average increase, the projected final enrollment would be 15,764, a decrease of 1,004 students and or a 6.0% decline.

The 30th day enrollment profile was released October 8th, 2014—a portion of which is reproduced below.

The 30th day enrollment profile shows that the headcount enrollment is 15,416. As a result, the increase from the 10th day enrollment to the 30th day enrollment is 1,908 students. Although the numbers are not easy to discern from the graph in the HuskyData Newsletter, it looks as if for the past four years, enrollment from the 10th day to the 30th day increases by approximately 2,000 students. As a very rough calculation for Fall’14, with an increase of 1,908 instead of 2,000, this looks like a 5% decline in the projected increase.

Given initial projections of 5.6% to 6.0% based on the 10th day numbers, the 30th day numbers make it look more like the final enrollment will be nearer the 6.0% estimate than the 5.6% estimate. Of course, until the numbers are final it can always be argued that my projection is better than yours!

Given that summer enrollment was down 9.4% (FYE), if fall enrollment is down 6% (FYE), the chance of Spring Semester’s enrollment being up enough to only show a 4-5% annual decline predicted by the Data Analytics group this summer is about zero. Almost certainly, enrollment will be down at SCSU more than 5.0%, which means that SCSU’s enrollment will have declined more than 5% for four years in a row. Certainly, this is a record that a university president will not list on their resume. The good news for the next SCSU President is that it might not take much to look good! Imagine a situation where being down 2.5% is considered GOOD!

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