This article suggests that Democrats’ worst nightmares are right around the corner:

Polling in recent weeks suggests turnout on Election Day could be very low, even by the standards of recent midterms. That’s bad news for Democrats because core groups in the liberal base are more likely to stay home than are people in the demographic segments that lean Republican.

A Gallup poll last week found that voters are less engaged in this year’s midterms than they were in 2010 and 2006. Only 33 percent of respondents said they were giving at least “some” thought to the upcoming midterms, compared to 46 percent in 2010 and 42 percent in 2006. Even more troubling for Democrats, Republicans held a 12-point advantage when those paying “some” attention were broken down by party.

The news isn’t all bad for the Democrats:

Turnout should be higher in states with high-profile competitive races. Michael McDonald, an associate professor at the University of Florida who specializes in elections, said that turnout may be low nationally simply because most of the county’s largest states, such as California and Texas, don’t have major competitive races.

This isn’t that great of news for Democrats. Most of the late-breaking races are breaking in the Republicans’ direction. It appears as though Harry Reid has given up on Sen. Udall:

This is potentially huge. Senate Majority PAC, the SuperPAC aiming to help Democrats keep their Senate majority, is cancelling $289,000 worth of broadcast-television advertising next week.

There’s such a thing as a domino effect late in elections. If people are noticing that the alphabets (DSCC, DNC, DCCC) are cancelling ad buys, it isn’t a stretch to think that they’re giving up on those races. It’s thought that pulling ad buys says that they’ve got better places to spend limited resources.

Similarly, races that aren’t attracting big names hint that they aren’t part of the top tier races.

This isn’t good news, either:

This election’s worst kept secret is that things aren’t breaking the Democrats’ direction. Cancelling ad buys in North Carolina and Colorado doesn’t indicate strength on the Democrats’ behalf.
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