The latest polling in the Walker-Burke race show Walker expanding his lead:

MILWAUKEE (News Release) – A new Marquette Law School Poll in the Wisconsin governor’s race finds Republican Gov. Scott Walker receiving the support of 50 percent of likely voters and Democratic challenger Mary Burke receiving 45 percent support. Another 3 percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they will support, while 1 percent say that they will vote for someone else. Likely voters are those who say they are certain to vote in the November election.

This is important because a) it’s the first time Gov. Walker has topped 50% and b) it’s a likely voter screen, which is typically the most predictive polling.

The Walker surge still isn’t complete. There’s still time for more momentum swings before the election. Still, there’s no denying that Burke’s credibility has been hurt. There’s no question that the turning point was the plagiarism scandal. Since then, she’s been on the defensive.

Ms. Burke wants to change the subject. That isn’t happening because the media keeps finding discrepancies between her statements and new documents. Those documents show how extensive the plagiarism was. That’s gonna hurt Burke until Election Day, in my opinion. Apparently, people have tuned her out because they can’t trust her. It’s one thing when the people think of politicians as corrupt. It’s another when they’re given verifiable documentation that the politician has lied repeatedly to them.

The trust that a candidate has built can crash in an instant because of a lie. If the candidate lies multiple times, that trust becomes difficult to rebuild. In this instance, it’s led Gov. Walker out of a 3-point deficit and lifted him into a 5-point lead.

It’s taken a little over 3 weeks to swing the polls. While I think Ms. Burke is damaged goods whose hopes are diminishing, that doesn’t mean I think she can’t mount a comeback. Gov. Walker should still run like he’s 2 points down with 3 weeks to Election Day. He’s just jumped into the lead. He needs to finish the race strong. That’s the best way to fight complacency and arrogance.

Technorati: , , , , , , ,

Leave a Reply