A month ago, it looked like Scott Brown’s second Senate bid was in trouble. According to this article, stories of Brown’s demise are definitely premature:

In the WMUR/UNH survey released Thursday night, Shaheen led Brown by 46 percent to 44 percent, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

This latest numbers show a dramatic swing in Brown’s direction from the previous WMUR/UNH poll, which was conducted a month-and-a-half earlier and showed Shaheen leading Brown by 12 points.

It’s understatement to say that the trend isn’t Shaheen’s friend. It’s probably overstating things to say she’s in trouble but I don’t think it’s wrong to say that she’s got some tough campaigning ahead. This statement from Sen. Shaheen’s campaign manager is definitely overstatement:

In a statement released after the survey’s results were released, Shaheen campaign manager Mike Vlacich said that the incumbent has been “ready for a competitive race since day one. Jeanne Shaheen is still leading all of her potential opponents because Granite State voters know and trust her,” he said.

The first question I’d ask Mr. Vlacich is pretty straightforward: If New Hampshire trusts her, why aren’t they showing it?

Going from a 12-point lead to a 2-point lead isn’t how people normally express confidence in a candidate.

Conventional wisdom says that Republicans don’t have to defeat Shaheen to retake the majority in the Senate. It’s thought that Democrats can’t maintain their majority if they lose Shaheen’s seat.

At this point, I’m thinking a Brown victory over Shaheen would be nice icing on the GOP’s cake. Similarly, while I’m not predicting anything at this point, I’m thinking that winning 8 seats is possible for the GOP.

Technorati: , , , , , , , ,

One Response to “Brown closes gap with Shaheen”

  • walter hanson says:

    Gary:

    I think the more important thing about this poll is that Sheenan is below 50%. That is the magic indicator that the person is in trouble to be reelected.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

Leave a Reply