This statement from MNsure makes it sound like MNsure will meet its goals:

MNsure 96% to Goal with 10 Days Remaining in Open Enrollment
More than 130,000 enrolled, only 5,000 sign-ups remain to meet 135,000 goal

Reading those headlines, you’d think that MNsure was staging a comeback for the ages. It isn’t:

To date, MNsure has enrolled 35,610 in a Qualified Health Plan, 26,297 in MinnesotaCare and 69,570 in Medical Assistance.

If you’re asking where that 135,000 figure comes from, you’re on the right track. If you look at pg. 7 of HF5’s fiscal note, you’ll find that the medium projections 217,000 enrollments while the high end projection is for 270,000 enrollments. The lowest projection called for 164,000 enrollments in qualified health plans.

Compare that with MNsure’s announcement from last Friday. That statement admits that “MNsure has enrolled 35,610 in a Qualified Health Plan.” MNsure just admitted that they’re 21.7% of the way to accomplishing their low-end goal. They’re only 16.4% of the way to the mid-point goal. What’s worst is that they’re only 13.2% of the way to hitting their high-end goal.

Based on what the DFL sold the public when they passed the HIX bill, MNsure is dramatically underperforming. Despite all of MNsure’s happy talk, the reality is that the 135,000 figure is what they adjusted after seeing MNsure repeatedly crash during October and November.

What’s more is that the number of people enrolled in QHPs is only about a third of the people who’ve enrolled in various programs. Here’s the easiest way of thinking about this. Two-thirds of the people signing up via MNsure don’t pay into the system.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg. Yesterday, I wrote this article about another way MNsure is failing:

Estimates are that 40 percent of enrollees need to be in that demographic to provide baseline ACA funding. As of Wednesday, only about 20,400 (16 percent) were ages 26-34, well short of the ideal goal of 54,000.

Here’s the easiest way of explaining the importance of this statistic. Yesterday, I called into Ox in the Afternoon to talk with King Banaian about this. King was sitting in for Ox yesterday. King said that he’d recently seen a report that said this adverse selection would trigger a 55% increase in premiums for next year. King said he thought the report was from the CBO but he wasn’t 100% of that.

Simply put, if young healthies don’t enroll in sufficient enough numbers, the insurance companies won’t collect the revenues needed to pay the increased claims from older, less healthy people. That, in turn, will either drive insurance companies out of business or it’ll cause them to dramatically increase premiums.

Everything in the reported data says MNsure isn’t a success. Everything points to it being a failure that people aren’t buying into. Of course, that isn’t something that the DFL will admit but that’s their political problem. When those higher premiums hit next fall, the DFL will have their hands full politically.

Most importantly, more people will be hurt by MNsure/Obamacare than will be helped by it. Spending more than $150,000,000 on something that hurts more people than it helps is depressing.

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