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Last spring, the Potter administration predicted that attendance at St. Cloud State would be down by 2.8%-3.2%. When I wrote this post based on a report put together by Dr. Tom Fauchald on Aug. 16, 2013, FYE enrollment for the fall semester at St. Cloud State was down by 18.4%. By comparison, Makato’s enrollment was down by 11.4% while Moorhead’s enrollment was down 9.1%.

FYI- Dr. Fauchald’s reports are based on MnSCU’s enrollment figures. Dr. Fauchald’s figures are the only figures I’ve used in my posts. Finally, all of Dr. Fauchald’s reports are based on FYE (Full-year Equivalents) enrollment figures.

The next post I wrote about was from the Aug. 22, 2013 report. According to that report, St. Cloud State’s enrollment had improved. Still, it was down by 15.6% compared with Mankato’s enrollment still being down by 8.4% and Moorhead’s enrollment down by 5.7%.

Thursday afternoon, I got the MnSCU report dated Sept. 4, 2013. Moorhead’s FYE enrollment is still down 3.8%, followed by Winona State at 3.3% and Mankato State by 2.1%. The bad news from the report again belonged to St. Cloud State, which is still down by 12%. This is from Dr. Fauchald’s report:

The state universities are getting close to what they will be winding up for enrollment, with the exception of Southwest, which will see an additional 700 PSEO FYEs in Sept. With the exception of St. Cloud the state universities are looking fairly good, given that enrollments across the entire system are down. St. Cloud is, of course, a major problem in that it looks like they will have a decrease in enrollment of 10% (in the past, St. Cloud hasn’t had a great deal of PSEO credits).

That’s startling news, though it isn’t a big surprise for SCSU. It’s likely that the next report will be the official 10-day report from SCSU. After that, the next (and last) enrollment report will be the 30-day report.

While it’s likely that the 10- and 30-day enrollment figures will be better for SCSU, it’s impossible to picture the 30-day enrollment report to not show at least a 10% drop in enrollment from last year’s 30-day enrollment report. According to Dr. Fauchald’s report, St. Cloud State should expect $5,300,000 less in tuition revenue for the 2013 Fall Semester.

Finally, if SCSU’s fall semester enrollment is off another 10% this year, it will mark the third straight year of sharply declining enrollments for St. Cloud State. If these figures hold, FYE enrollment at St. Cloud State will have shrunk by over 20% in 3 years.

That certainly isn’t the recipe for success.

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10 Responses to “President Potter’s enrollment nightmare, Part III”

  • Jethro says:

    The numbers tell a disturbing story. Losing 1 out of 5 students at a major university is alarming. No fuzzy math here.

  • Greg Jarrett says:

    I would like to see the actual numbers of students broken out. White, African American, Somali American (Muslim), Asian etc. I would suspect that that the swelling of the Muslim category(and related tensions /crime) has a direct correlation.

  • Paul Rooney says:

    If your students continue to be assaulted , robbed and in other ways feel unsafe, of course they will seek other alternatives to higher education.

    Too many FLUFF courses? Not enough real world training?

    Who know? BUT there is a perception that college and university curriculums today are the grown up versions of skateboarding

    Now it’s coming back to bite and it HURTS

  • Gary Gross says:

    Mr. Rooney, I’m questioning whether there’s been an uptick in violent crime. It’s one thing when the crime logs & anecdotal evidence support that. It’s another when it’s just a theory.

  • Greg Jarrett says:

    St Cloud PD has made a deal with SCSU for officers and patrols and maybe more.. Has it helped? Why was it needed in the first place?
    Answer those 2 questions.. Its not a theory…its fact

  • Bob Goreland says:

    The proper name is Minnesota State University, Mankato. The name change has been around for the better part of a decade get with the times LFRB.

  • Bob J. says:

    Moorhead is a Minnesota State too, Bob. Do you have anything to say about Gary’s comments, or just third-grade snark?

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