Six days ago, KSTP announced that Michele Bachmann led her opponent by 9 points:

In an election today for the U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, high-profile incumbent Republican congresswoman Michele Bachmann is re-elected, defeating DFL challenger Jim Graves 50% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

This morning, the Star Tribune’s poll shows Michele Bachmann leading by 6 points:

Bachmann, who is waging one of the most expensive House campaigns in the nation against a political newcomer, is favored by 51 percent of likely voters in Minnesota’s sprawling Sixth Congressional District, which stretches from west of St. Cloud into Woodbury. Another 45 percent would choose Graves, a St. Cloud native and owner of Graves Hospitality Corp., an expansive hotel chain. Four percent of voters are undecided.

It’d be foolish to say that this race is over. It isn’t foolish to say that Michele’s opponent is facing an increasingly uphill fight, though.

Michele is getting over the magical 50% mark, which definitely puts a smile on Michele’s campaign manager’s face. It doesn’t mean Chase Kroll’s life is all peaches and cream. It just means his client’s is in a positive position.

With closing arguments starting, and with Michele’s lead solidifying, it’ll be difficult for Michele’s opponent to get the traction he’d need to mount an effective rally.

This information is welcome news for Michele’s campaign:

The Graves campaign has been hitting Bachmann on economic issues, including the recent shutdown at the Verso Paper Corp. mill in Sartell, and working to cast Graves as the pro-business candidate in the race. But when asked which candidate would be more effective at working to improve the economy and create jobs in the district, 49 percent of poll respondents named Bachmann, 43 percent picked Graves and 7 percent were undecided.

This was supposed to be the logic behind Graves’ campaign. Instead, Michele’s viewed as the better choice for business. That’s probably because she’s vowed to work on fixing everything that’s fatally flawed with Dodd-Frank but it’s mostly because Michele’s promising to repeal the AHCA.

The strategy could resonate in a district where 55 percent of voters have said they wanted to see the Affordable Health Care Act repealed and only 38 percent want to keep it in place.

In short, Michele’s positioned herself well for her district. Her opponent, on the other hand, isn’t saying what he’s for. That’s why it’s impossible to tell whether he’s positioned himself well on the issue in the Sixth District.

With a little more than 2 weeks left in the campaign, Michele’s in a solid position. Defeating isn’t impossible, though it’d take an act of God to defeat her.

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6 Responses to “Michele Bachmann solidifies lead”

  • #6 says:

    This is very bad news for the Graves campaign. If a Democrat poll conducted by the Star Trib shows him down by 6, it’s probably worse than that.

  • walter hanson says:

    #6 I was going to say what was the breakdown since it was the Star Tribune. I basically think after surviving in 2006 (first race) and 2008 (when she got every Democrat to want to donate against her) that she can easily win any race now for House.

    I realize it’s not President, but how about Senate in 2014?

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  • eric z says:

    Proving what? That CD6 is without a soul?

    Do you put any credibility in today’s Strib online, a poll with Nolan leading in CD8?

    Bachmann is like a national disease.

    Walter, Senate in 2014, Pete Hegseth will elbow anybody else out of his way, and if elbows do not work … The guy is already working on that campaign now. Go figure.

    Walter, I am 100% with you, though, favoring Bachmann in the Senate Tea pot derby. I expect Franken would agree.

  • Gary Gross says:

    Proving what? That CD6 is without a soul?

    Proving that CD6 has a brain.

  • walter hanson says:


    Where to begin with you?

    The Star Tribune predicted governor Dayton by something like 10 points the day before the election so I don’t take any credibility in their polls.

    Bachmann is a great congresswoman who is doing her job. If you want to think of a congressman or senator who is a disease for not doing their job there is Amy K, Al F, Tim W, Mary M, the guy who pretends to be the congressman for my district, and Collin P.

    As for 2014 if there is a candidate who wants to run hard to win that is what I’m looking for to be the candidate that takes Franken on. The fact that you don’t like either Bachmann or Pete is proof they will be a far better Senator then Al.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  • #6 says:

    The only time the strib poll was anywhere close to accurate was in 2006 with the US Senate race. Their over sample of Democrats voting was accurate of the electorate in that election. So unless it’s a Democrat wave election, their poll isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.

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