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This evening, KSTP dropped a bombshell when they reported the results of the poll they commissioned SurveyUSA to do. Here’s the opening bombshell:

Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%
If the election for President were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

40% Mitt Romney (R)
46% Barack Obama (D)
7% Other
7% Undecided

Ben Golnik tweeted this important information:

Romney leads with Indies, 38 to 34. Partisan makeup for poll: 38% DFL; 32% GOP; 28% Indy

I’m certain Ben’s information is accurate. That means this race is significantly tighter than the horserace figure indicates. Factor in the MOE and the partisan makeup of the sample with the horserace figure and you’ve pretty much got a toss-up presidential race.

Two other significant statistics from the poll were positive news for conservatives and thoughtful independents and Democrats:

Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot defines marriage as between one man and one woman. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

52% Vote For
37% Vote Against
5% Not Vote
6% Not Sure

The amendment is actually more popular now than it was in April. That can’t make the DFL happy. This polling certainly must make the DFL, especially Mark Ritchie and Joe Mansky, upset:

Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%
An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot would require voters to show photo I.D.’s in order to vote on Election Day. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

65% Vote For
28% Vote Against
2% Not Vote
4% Not Sure

The DFL’s only hope of Photo ID becoming law is by preventing it from being on the ballot. If it’s on the ballot, it’ll be in Minnesota’s Constitution.

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3 Responses to “SurveyUSA poll: Minnesota is battleground state”

  • walter hanson says:

    Obama is definitely on the defensive. In 2008 he was on the offense against somebody with limited resources.

    Here he has to defend a bigger, have less resources, and literally everywhere he is less popular than in 2008.

    Minnesota in play shows just how much trouble he is in.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

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