If you’r the Obama campaign, this is the scariest political headline of the morning:
Big Obama Spending Fails To Move The Needle
It wouldn’t be a big deal if President Obama was cruising along with a 12-point lead. The bad news for President Obama is that he doesn’t have a 12-point lead. The worst news is that his campaign isn’t cruising. Tuesday night’s results from Wisconsin and California spell trouble for him and his big labor allies.
In May, the Obama campaign devoted $25 million to campaign ads, most of it to a slew of positive spots highlighting his record on issues from health care to the auto-bailout. One featured an Ohio autoworker hailing Obama for “sticking his neck out” for the industry. In another, Obama explains why he decided to bail out the car companies. A third is simply an animated chart showing job growth under Obama’s tenure in office, ending with a text overlay “Do we really want to reverse course now?”
The investment has not paid off, by the standard measure of ads’ effectiveness, polling. While Mitt Romney’s numbers jumped in May, largely the result of him solidifying support among Republicans after the primary, Obama’s numbers barely moved in some surveys; in others, they went down. Obama averaged a 47-percent job approval rating in May, the same as in April, according to Gallup surveys. In a head-to-head with Romney nationally Obama’s numbers remained within the margin of error. And in a series of swing states like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado, Obama ceded ground to Romney. The Republican candidate also pulled even with Obama in swing states like Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa in the latest NBC News/Marist poll.
The recent polls “would suggest that the [Obama] ads had no effect or the opposite effect,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayers.
Whit Ayers is one of the elite pollsters in the GOP. His analysis is taken seriously by people of all political persuasions. His statement that President Obama’s ads have “had no effect or the opposite effect” is a killer for a couple reasons.
First, the highly-touted billion dollar fundraising figure for President Obama isn’t happening. It’s falling far short of that figure. In 2008, Democrats flooded the airwaves with ads. They overwhelmed the system. Now they’re caught with a situation where the GOP nominee, the GOP superPACs and the RNC will overwhelm Democrats.
That’s especially troublesome in a year when Democrats are heading into strong headwinds.
What’s important, though, is that President Obama made tons of speeches. Initially, people talked about what a great orator he was. The rhetoric was soaring, the pundits told us. That phase came to a crashing halt because conservative bloggers started citing the emptiness of intellectual content his speeches were.
He’s relied on his oratory skills to the point that he didn’t listen to what the American people wanted policy- and solution-wise. His policies have failed.
As a direct result of his tiresome rhetoric and his miserable results, people are tuning him out. There’s no there there. This advertisement is where most people are at:
The TEA Party movement made people thirsty for sensible solutions. They’ve made demanding real solutions to pressing problems fashionable. People have concluded that, with President Obama, there’s no beef under the big, fluffy bun.
That’s why President Obama’s re-election chances are shrinking.