If this poll is right, then Mitt’s in trouble:

In the three days leading up to Thursday’s debate at the University of North Florida, First Coast News and St. Augustine-based Dixie Strategies commissioned the Dixie Strategies/First Coast News Public Opinion Survey, a poll of Republicans throughout the state who described themselves as “likely” voters in the Jan. 31 primary.

When asked, “If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today, for whom would you vote?,” 35.46 percent of the 2,567 likely voters polled selected former House speaker Gingrich, and 35.08 percent selected Romney.

I’ve never heard of this polling company but 2,500 likely voters are 2,500 likely GOP primary voters. That’s a huge sample, one with a tiny MOE, possibly in the 2.5-3 range.

I think there’s a decent chance it is true. Wednesday, Mitt Romney and the GOP Establishment took aim at Newt. Thursday and Friday, 4 of conservatism’s biggest voices, Rush, Sarah Palin, Mark Levin and Michael Reagan, blasted Mitt’s team for their disgusting assault against Newt’s Reaganite credentials. Bloggers dispersed that message far and wide Thursday and Friday.

Most importantly, the message that Newt was a steadfast supporter of President Reagan’s policies and priorities, along with steadfast TEA Party support, certainly has the potential for being a game-changing force.

Mitt’s Alinskyite attacks, coupled with Sarah Palin’s and Mark Levin’s harsh criticism of Mitt and the GOP Establishment might well be all that’s needed to push Newt to victory in the Florida GOP Primary. If that happens, expect the Establishment’s long knives to get longer and sharper.

In their mind, this is an existential fight. They’re right about that. It’s time to get rid of their corruption, cronyism and appeasement.

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6 Responses to “If this is right, Mitt’s in trouble”

  • J. Ewing says:

    I might add that the establishment’s central focus is to not rock the boat, even when the boat is headed over the falls. They don’t want to actually have to work hard and make tough decisions, but that’s what MUST happen ASAP.

  • eric z. says:

    Reading that, thirty percent must have simply held their noses.

    GG/JE – Neither of you have been all over Romney’s being the “establishment candidate” in terms of who is giving him money. Reporting is a few days old, but it is at http://www.mcclatchydc.com:

    “Big banks have picked their candidate, and it’s Romney

    “By Andrew Dunn | Charlotte Observer

    “CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The country’s biggest banks are overwhelmingly supporting Mitt Romney’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination, an analysis of federal campaign contributions shows.

    “Employees at the five largest U.S. banks by assets, including Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co., had given Romney about $600,000 through the first three quarters of 2011, according to the most recent filings available from the Federal Election Commission.

    “The second-largest recipient of bank employee contributions, President Barack Obama, had far less, about $200,000, the analysis showed. The Republican presidential hopeful with the second-highest total, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, dropped out of the race in mid-August.”

    Three of your GOP guys get less big-bank respect.

    Make what you will of it, but if the five largest banking conglomerates, to failed to be big, are for Mitt – it seems “establishment” to me. Any disagreement?

    Pawlenty’s big score? Bill Cooper likes him.

  • eric z. says:

    JE/GG – Reading that Bob Dole stuff, and the other apocalyptic predictions of Romney supporters – if Newt is the candidate down-ticket GOP chances will die; my question is, I don’t remember but I think the ending was the sky did not fall on Chicken Little; so, can either of you refresh my mind?

  • LadyLogician says:

    The only concern I have with that poll is that it was taken BEFORE Thursday’s disastrous debate. As close as the numbers are, it won’t take too many flaking off to change the outcome.

    LL

  • Gary Gross says:

    Granted, the poll was taken before Thursday night’s debate but let’s remember this: Romney did ok but, if I had to pick a winner, it wouldn’t be Romney. It’d be Santorum. I thought Santorum hurt Mitt badly on the health care exchange.

    Let’s also remember that Friday wasn’t a good day for Mitt with Levin, Rush & especially Palin bitchslapping Mitt around over his coordinated attacks against Newt.

  • LadyLogician says:

    True enough. The fact that Limbaugh and Hannity virtually devoted 12 full broadcast hours over two days to slapping down the “Newt is anti-Reagan” meme is outright incredible…and will do a lot to help. But was the damage already done? We just don’t know and won’t know until Tuesday.

    Meanwhile the Romney supporters are turning up the heat. I have had a couple take me to “task” for my post on the attacks – never mind that I defended their guy in the previous post…..

    LL

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