According to a tweet by Rep. Ryan Winkler, Republicans will “cave”. It’s a matter of when, not if. Here’s the text of Rep. Winkler’s tweet from last Wednesday:

Rep. Ryan Winkler (DFL-Golden Valley) has said he believes that if courts refuse to fund “core services” during a shutdown, this would force Gov. Mark Dayton and GOP leaders to reach a budget agreement.

The GOP will cave. Only question is if they do it [before] they cause shutdown,” Winkler Tweeted last Wednesday.

If Rep. Winkler were a professional athlete, his tweet would be posted on his opponent’s chalkboard before the next game. It’s what’s known in pro sports as chalkboard material. When a player predicts his team’s win, he’d better back it up by winning. Otherwise, his prediction serves only to motivate his opponent’s team.

Prior to reading Rep. Winkler’s quote, I’d talked with numerous GOP legislators. Frankly, I don’t think they’ll cave. After finding out about Rep. Winkler’s quote and after putting a complete, balanced budget together, I’m betting that Republicans will stand their ground.

The likelihood of Republicans caving goes down if you factor in the Pi-Press’s anti-Dayton op-ed:

Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton has attempted to position himself as interested in compromise. Though both sides have compromised, the governor seems to have had the better of the “I compromised and they didn’t” spin.

But it’s not that simple. Rather than work out differences and sign off on large portions of the budget on which agreement is within reach, Dayton has as of this writing refused to get deals done and preserve operations in those parts of government. This is not compromise. This is hostage taking.

The governor is threatening to unnecessarily shut down portions of government to have his way on other, more contentious budget matters. We understand his desire to bring the greatest possible pressure to bear on the Legislature in support of his promise to raise taxes on higher incomes. Politics ain’t beanbag. But the unnecessary infliction of pain is not consistent with an attitude of compromise.

For a Twin Cities newspaper to say that Gov. Dayton is “threatening to unnecessarily shut down portions of government” is unthinkable most days. In fact, it might be unprecedented.

Regardless of whether it’s unprecedented, it should be enough to stiffen the spines of any wobblies that might still exist. I’ve talked with activists around the state. That they’re calling and emailing their legislators telling their legislators that doing the right thing will be rewarded is making a difference, too.

Rep. Winkler is likely considered a rising star in the DFL. If that’s the DFL’s version of a rising star, the DFL is hurting.

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4 Responses to “Rep. Winkler on Dayton Shutdown: Republicans Will Cave”

  • walter hanson says:

    Gary:

    This is another example of the DFL and their unions AFSCME don’t care. I’m going to be given a layoff notice (at least I hope it’s temporary) because governor Dayton refused to sign the transportation bill which has over 99% of what Dayton wants. I was sent an email by my union president blaming the Republican legislators for not doing their job.

    Um didn’t they pass the whole budget?

    Didn’t they propose to spend 13% more when the people according to a KSTP say 87% of the public wants the budget to remain at $30 billion or cut.

    Dayton, AFSCME, and the others want that tax increase on the rich so bad they don’t care about the damage they are doing!

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  • Greg Lang says:

    “The Revenue Department would keep a skeleton crew – 40 of its 1,400 employees – on the job to collect taxes, but it wouldn’t send taxpayer refunds, including about $90 million scheduled to be paid to 70,000 renters next month.”

    Note: The Circuit-breaker checks for renters are supposed to be out by mid August and are used by many renters for “back to school” supplies. (Homeowner credits go out in mid-October). The renter payments are based on property taxes paid as part of rent and income. More renters than homeowners tend to be democratic. The payment is largest for lower income renter of housing that is not subsidized. The larger refunds to lower income are more important to them than people with higher income. Market renters with lower incomes (IE: tend to vote democratic) are at times LITERALLY banking on this mid Aug…ust money.

    The payments to homeowners is scheduled for mid October. The logic here is that it can be used to pay second half-property taxes due 10-17-11. If a late penalty is applied because people depended on the circuit breaker homestead refund here is the penalty schedule. https://www16.co.hennepin.mn.us/taxpayments/ratestable.jsp

    Basically renters will be affected worse than homeowners by payment delays. The renters are more likely to be vote democratic.

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