Archive for the ‘MAGA Rallies’ Category

I’ve been consistent in predicting this presidential election since before the Impeachment hearings started. It’s my long-held theory that the first presidential test is the ‘commander-in-chief’ test. This year, there’s another threshold to eclipse. I call it the are-you-out-of-your-mind test.

Another gift that Democrats have thrown President Trump is the Defund-the-Police movement. Never has a major political party given the opposing major political party a bigger gift than that. Establishment Democrats insist that “defund the police” doesn’t mean they want to defund the police. Establishment Democrats insist that they just mean that they want to take money away from law enforcement, then give that cash to other Democrat wish list items. Others insist that they mean to dismantle entire police departments.

A respectable case can be made that Joe Biden can’t pass either test. Too often, Biden is caught looking at his notes while answering questions during interviews with TV hosts. Too often, Biden stumbles, not stutters, in making basic points that a congressional candidate would make with ease. Too often, Mr. Biden can’t string 3 straight coherent sentences together, his cognitive decline on full display:

Biden’s cognitive decline is frequently on full display. This isn’t a surprise to honest people. In the above video, Joe clearly isn’t right when he said “poor people are just as smart as white people.” He’s clearly not thinking clearly when he says that “we choose truth over facts.” He couldn’t even struggle his way out of “we hold these truths … you know, the thing.”

Clearly, Democrats will pick Biden’s running mate because she will be the president within 2-3 months if he wins. At this point, Susan Rice and Elizabeth Warren look like the finalists. Neither is qualified to be president or vice president.

During a crisis, Rice lied to each major Sunday morning talk show to hide the fact that Hillary Clinton didn’t protect the ambassador to Libya. Warren told a story that she was let go because she was “visibly pregnant at the time.” She’s said that she wouldn’t do fundraisers with billionaires because she’s all about fighting for the little guy. Last night, she hosted a fundraiser with some of the richest people in America. You can’t rail that the system is rigged, then hobnob with the people she’s accused of rigging the system.

Meanwhile, the Trump-RNC juggernaut keeps chugging along:

Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale on Monday said they have received more than 1 million ticket requests for President Trump’s first campaign-style rally since the coronavirus lockdowns slated to take place Saturday. “Over 1M ticket requests for the @realDonaldTrump #MAGA Rally in Tulsa on Saturday,” Parscale tweeted Monday, adding safety guidelines for the event.

When I wrote this post, I wrote that “According to Brad Parscale, Trump’s campaign manager, 96.6% of the people who attend a Trump rally wind up voting for him. Additionally, Parscale said that if a person who attends a Trump rally and who makes a contribution, the chances of that voter returning and voting for Trump jumps to 98.4%.” That’s why the #MAGA rallies are the greatest GOTV operation in the history of politics. The other thing that the Trump campaign has touted is that they’re using these #MAGA rallies as voter registration drives. People that think that Trump is using these rallies to pump up his base isn’t paying attention to the reality that he’s using these rallies to expand his base.

The Democrat Parties’ (plural possessive) problem heading into November is visible to people willing to see what’s actually there. What’s actually there are 2 political parties within the Democratic Party. There’s the far left wing of the Democrat Party, represented by Nancy Pelosi. Then there’s the even farther left wing of the Democrat Party. That wing is represented by Ilhan Omar, AOC and, to a lesser degree, Lisa Bender and Jeremiah Ellison.

The Pelosi wing of the Democrat Party are nuttier than a warehouse full of fruitcake. They just pretend that they’re moderates. They aren’t moderates except by comparison with the AOC wing. Two years ago, Democrats crowed about how Conor Lamb was their blueprint for a candidate. This year, Lamb will likely lose to Sean Parnell in western Pennsylvania.

Lamb’s problem is what I’ve called Tarryl Clark syndrome. For those of you outside Minnesota, Tarryl used to be my state senator until 2010. Then she was known as a moderate when she first ran. Then a terrible thing happened to Tarryl. She accumulated a voting record. Included in that record was a vote to literally vote for a tax increase. When she cast her vote, the vote was tied 33-33. Thereafter, she became Taxin’ Tarryl Clark. In 2010, Michele Bachmann beat Tarryl by 14 points, as I predicted. But I digress. Lamb has accumulated a rather leftist voting record, too. He voted for both articles of impeachment. He’s voted with Pelosi 90+ percent of the time.

The AOC wing of the Party wants to defund police departments. They also want to defund ICE, aka the Immigration and Customs Enforcement. This wing of the Democrat Party is vehemently opposed to law enforcement. This is what happens when you don’t worship at the altar of the AOC wing of the Democrat Party:

Brad Parscale, the Trump campaign’s manager, wrote this scathing op-ed that demolished the credibility of most media polls. In it, he wrote this:

To the delight of liberals everywhere, the Atlanta-based hub of fake news recently put out a poll showing Biden with a 14-point lead in the race, with 55% of the vote to Trump’s 41%, a larger share than any presidential candidate has received in an actual election since Ronald Reagan garnered 58.8% in his 1984 shellacking of Walter Mondale.

CNN’s latest wonder is a poll of all adult voters, with no effort made to sort out which people are likely, or even registered, to vote. This method of polling consistently undercounts Republican turnout, as more-reputable polling outfits have long understood, and as CNN should have learned from 2016.

Think of this as a repeat of the battle between the COVID models vs. the COVID data. The same principles apply. The models made a projection based on incomplete data. They were wrong.

Meanwhile, elections have been held over the past month. In the special elections to fill empty seats in Wisconsin and California. Republicans handily won both seats. A week later, city council races were held in Staunton, VA. All 4 Democrat incumbents got defeated. Last week, a presidential primary was held in Pennsylvania, the biggest of the battleground states. Though both candidates had clinched their party’s nomination, turnout was high. President Trump got 861,000 votes. Biden got 734,000 votes. That’s a hard margin of 54%-46% in President Trump’s favor. That isn’t speculation. That’s the results of a real election.

Once the campaign starts, segment like this will hurt Biden to the core:

There’s even a strong indication of pro-Biden skew in the numbers themselves. Only 37% of registered voters who told CNN they were more likely to vote for Biden said they were actually voting for Biden, as opposed to against Trump. That’s a dire figure. For comparison, polls consistently showed that about three-quarters of Barack Obama’s voters were “for” him rather than “against” his opponent.

People are simply not enthusiastic about Biden. Shoot, even Biden doesn’t seem very enthusiastic about Biden most of the time. They are, however, extremely enthusiastic about Trump — even in the supposedly “devastating” CNN poll, about 70% of those who say they will vote for Trump say they’re voting for him, not against Biden.

That’s what’s called an enthusiasm gap. Sleepy Joe’s voters will turn out on election day. The difference is that President Trump’s voters will show up for phone banking, door-knocking and whatever else they’re asked to do. That’s a massive GOTV advantage in President Trump’s favor.

That’s why listening to people who say that this will be a tight race are wrong. Ditto with people who say that ‘anyone who tells you that they know how this election will turn out isn’t telling you the truth’. If you only look at the horserace figure without digging into the methodology, things look difficult for President Trump. Once you start putting the entire campaign together, including the data analytics, the GOTV machine and the fundraising, it isn’t difficult to figure out that President Trump is heading for re-election.

That’s before talking about the greatest GOTV operation in the history of campaigning, aka the #MAGA Rallies. They’re likely returning within the next 2-3 weeks. While Trump rallies attract 35,000-50,000 people both inside the arena and in the overflow, Joe will do remote interviews that attract voters by the dozens. The thought that this election will be close is laughable.