Archive for the ‘Ronna McDaniel’ Category

For months, I’ve heard that this year’s presidential election would be a base election. I’ve been skeptical of that declaration, to say the least. Saturday, President Trump held a rally at the Pittsburgh-Butler Airport. According to the Secret Service, more than 57,000 people attended the rally. According to RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel’s tweet, Democrats have reason to worry:

One-fourth of the crowd at Butler didn’t vote in 2016. That’s almost 14,000 new votes from Butler alone. Newt Gingrich puts things into perspective in this article:

A victory for Donald Trump would be an American populist uprising against all the large systems that would sell out to the Chinese, give up the American dream, and suppress the political right.

But will President Trump be re-elected? I think so. If you examine the crowds at the president’s rallies, you’ll find not only a significant number of people who have never before voted but also many Democrats. Plus, in virtually every state-wide poll, we see Trump, at a minimum, doubling his share of the African-American vote.

President Trump’s share of the Hispanic vote is increasing, too. That’s mostly because of his economic record but it’s also due to his American Dream Plan. While Joe Biden says that he’ll unite the nation, President Trump has brought people of different backgrounds together through prosperity.

President Trump has expanded his base through outreach. It’ll become apparent when votes start getting announced.

It’s becoming obvious that President Trump’s crowds are getting bigger or they’re staying the same. Whether he’s campaigning in Lansing, MI, Goodyear, AZ or Omaha, NE, the people turn out. During his presidency, President Trump would try to do a rally about every other week. It was common knowledge that there were people that would follow him from place-to-place. That helped inflate the attendance numbers a little.

That isn’t happening anymore. At the start of this week, President Trump made 3 campaign stops in Pennsylvania. On Tuesday, he campaigned in Michigan, Wisconsin and Omaha, NE. He made campaign appearences in Bullhead City, AZ:

then Goodyear, AZ:

The day before the Arizona rallies, Omaha’s rally was gigantic:

This picture of Biden’s Soul of the Nation rally in Coconut Creek, FL says everything:

To steal a phrase that former Education Secretary Bill Bennett coined, the crowd at the Biden rally “went on for as far as the arm could stretch.” The statistics from the Trump rallies show that President Trump’s base is expanding. The number of people who weren’t Republicans that attended the rallies exceeded 30,200 people. Both states have large Hispanic populations so it isn’t a stretch to think that 20,000-25,000 of those that weren’t Republicans are Hispanics.

This isn’t a base election. This is a wave election. Specifically, there’s a red wave heading the Democrats’ direction. Happy days will soon be here again.

Thank God for Ronna McDaniel’s twitter feed. Without the statistics from President Trump’s rallies, I’d have nothing but worthless media polls to base my political opinions on. Friday, President Trump made campaign stops in The Villages, FL and Pensacola, FL. According to McDaniel’s reports, both rallies added new Trump voters:

President Trump, aka the Executive Branch’s Energizer Bunny, isn’t slowing down. President Trump has held 2 rallies on Saturday thus far and still plans on holding a third rally tonight. Then it’s more rallies in battleground states each day until Election Day. Chairwoman McDaniel is doing a great job running the RNC and getting out these statistics. President Trump is the best presidential campaigner, at least in terms of energy and enthusiastic crowds.

Based on the size of President Trump’s rallies and Ronna McDaniel’s statistics, it’s pretty obvious that the polls are pretty wrong. The sole exception to that is the Trafalgar Group’s polling.

Next weekend, expect my predictions post. I want to see a few more days worth of data before making another prediction. This I’ll guarantee, though: My predictions likely won’t line up with the MSM’s predictions.

Paul Bedard’s article is another in a lengthy list of articles that dig beneath the numbers put forth by the polls. That’s why it’s such worthwhile reading. Paul’s article starts by saying “In the 13 reelection events since returning to the campaign trail following his COVID-19 diagnosis, President Trump has attracted more than 167,000 rally goers, many of them first-time voters and even more who are not Republicans.” That’s an average of almost 13,000 people per event.

It continues, saying “According to GOP rally data posted by Republican Party Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, the Trump airport campaign events strongly suggest that he is building out his base and that media reports the president is only talking to his core constituency are wrong.” I’m perfectly content if the MSM thinks that this is a fight of the Democrats’ base vs. the Republicans’ base. That isn’t the match-up that’s happening. That’s why most of the polls are wrong. On November 3, the MSM will be wrong again. Here’s what RNC Chairperson Ronna McDaniel tweeted recently:

The thing that’s worth paying attention to is the fact that one-fourth of the people at the Trump rally in Sanford didn’t vote in 2016. The question that hasn’t gotten asked is this: why were they activated to vote in 2020? One-seventh of the people at the Trump rally in Sanford haven’t voted since 2010. Why are they voting now? This video featuring CNBC’s Steve Kornacki is definitely worth watching:

Don’t trust the polls. They’re as worthless as the initial COVID models were. Between the new voters registering and true moderate Democrats voting for Trump, this election has a shot at being a pretty good year for Republicans nationwide.

This article highlights the matchup of the final 2 weeks of the presidential campaign. The article starts by saying “Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had nearly three times as much cash in his campaign coffers than President Trump at the start of this month, according to the latest fundraising filings from both major party nominees.” Next, it says “The former vice president’s campaign had more than $177 million cash on hand as of Sept. 30, according to a filing with the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday evening. Trump’s reelection campaign reported $63.1 million in the bank.”

The Trump volunteer army numbers 2,500,000. That’s the biggest volunteer army in the history of US politics. They’ve made over 130,000,000 voter contacts thus far. The article doesn’t talk about the power of President Trump’s rallies or the importance of a compelling message. It also didn’t talk about the lazy campaign that former Vice President Biden has run.

This segment of The Story highlights the Trafalgar Group’s polling. What’s important is that Trafalgar doesn’t use the same methods as the network polling. It’s worth noting that the network polling in 2016 was virtually worthless. Trafalgar’s was very accurate. Trafalgar correctly identified the hidden Trump voters in 2016 that the networks didn’t. But I digress.

President Trump was outspent by Hillary 4 years ago. Thankfully, there never was a Hillary administration. What Trump had going for him were his rallies and the RNC GOTV effort. After his election, President Trump installed Ronna McDaniel as RNC Chairperson. That was a brilliant decision. He also started recruiting volunteers for his 2020 campaign. Thanks to these decisions, President Trump started putting together a GOTV operation that’s unprecedented.

All the pundits complaining about the mistakes that President Trump is supposedly making will find out Election Night that they’re wrong again. President Trump’s understanding of the American people is unsurpassed. When President Trump goes after Hunter Biden’s corruption, what he’s actually doing is draining the Swamp. That’s one of his core promises. Promises made, promises kept. They’ll never learn.

In his final address from the Oval Office, Ronald Reagan said that he never won a victory that the American people didn’t win for him first. President Trump is the leader of this populist movement but he didn’t start the movement. Trusting him is the equivalent of trusting the movement he’s leading to victory.

I trust President Trump’s instincts. You should, too.

Katie Pavlich’s latest Townhall column should frighten the daylights out of the Biden campaign. This afternoon, a Biden surrogate said that rally attendance doesn’t equal votes. I disagree with that. I wrote here about something that Brad Parscale said the day before the New Hampshire Primary.

Parscale said “96.6% of the people who attend a Trump rally wind up voting for him.” Additionally, Parscale said that “if a person who attends a Trump rally and who makes a contribution, the chances of that voter returning and voting for Trump jumps to 98.4%.” That sounds to me like attending a Trump rally eventually turns into voting for President Trump. But I digress. Back to the Pavlich article. She quoted RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel’s tweet:

This isn’t a fluke. It’s been happening at Trump rally after Trump rally. If it happens occasionally, it’s a bit fluky. If it happens frequently, it’s a pattern. This fits as a pattern.

This is from today:

One last tweet:

Put these statistics together points to one thing — a solid Trump victory. Hopefully, that equates to unified GOP governance. Finally, what these statistics don’t point to is a blue wave. You can write that wave off.

Saying that President Trump is an embattled president is somewhat accurate, though definitely inaccurate, too. Let me explain with the help of this article. In the article, A.B. Stoddard highlights the fact that the RNC has outraised the DNC by an enormous amount. She also highlights the other advantages that Republicans have. This isn’t a ‘Republicans are doing well here but Democrats are doing well elsewhere’ situation. It’s a situation of the RNC pretty much dominating the entire landscape:

For months Democrats have worried about a potentially lethal combination of Trump’s incumbency advantage coupled with the unparalleled strength of the GOP organization — and that was before their newfound fear that they may not end up with a suitable nominee to take on even a deeply embattled Trump. While he rants on Twitter and holds campaign rallies, Democrats in a primary race get little notice or coverage. Meanwhile the Trump campaign is carpet-bombing Facebook with ads and the RNC is spreading a volunteer army across key swing states, all while breaking fundraising records allowing them to deploy critical resources nearly a year before a Democrat is nominated.

Dynamic fundraising eliminates a ton of sins. This isn’t just about fundraising, though. It’s about how that money is getting used. In this instance, it’s getting used wisely and for maximum impact:

In August, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez acknowledged the threat after the RNC tripled the amount the DNC raised in July. In an email he sent supporters sounding the alarm, he wrote that “our eventual nominee won’t stand a chance against Trump and the GOP’s fundraising machine unless we start making strategic, early investments right now.”

It was clear in September, when the RNC quadrupled the DNC total, that those investments have yet to materialize. September was the best non-election-year month for the RNC in history for either party, raising $27.3 million to the DNC’s $6.9 million. The RNC is carrying no debt; the DNC is carrying $7.2 million. The RNC has $59.2 million cash on hand while the DNC has $8.6 million. The RNC’s 2019 total is $168.7 million while the DNC has raised only $66.5 million this year.

That’s only part of the story. Here’s the important part of the story:

Impeachment has been a boon to GOP fundraising and grassroots organizing. Since the official start of impeachment, $10.3 million has been spent between the RNC and the Trump campaign in ads on air and online and the RNC has held 60 events in swing or Trump districts held by Democrats, and in Senate and gubernatorial races, just since Sept. 30.

For the 2020 campaign, RNC has staff deployed in 19 states including New Hampshire and New Mexico, with five regional communications directors and nine regional political directors. By Election Day there will be 2 million volunteers coordinated by 60,000 “fellows,” who are trained grassroots volunteers. In 2016 the RNC had 5,000 fellows, then in 2018 that grew to 25,000, and more than 30,000 additional fellows are being trained up now. Volunteers download an app, then go door to door in assigned teams that break down by state, then “turf,” then neighborhood. “We don’t care about offices,” said RNC spokesman Rick Gorka.

Watching Trump’s rallies, coupled with reading this article, it’s interesting to see how both things fit together. Most of the rallies have substantial numbers of people who haven’t been to a Trump rally before. Couple that with the data gathered and you’ve got a powerful 1-2 punch getting built.

In Arizona, now a swing state after decades trending red, the RNC will be tracking 207,284 so-called “disengagers” statewide, that is, people who voted in 2016 but not 2018. They already know, for example, their specific goal in “turf 24” outside of Maricopa County: to reach 14,537 swing voters they need to win over.

This money is being spent to build a strong GOTV operation. It’s also doing things that few other presidential campaigns have done. For instance, they’re doing voter registration drives to strengthen congressional and Senate candidates and incumbents. President Trump and the RNC want this to be a wave election up and down the ticket.

Though I haven’t seen anything communicating this goal, I’m betting that the RNC’s and the Trump campaign’s goal is to re-elect him, strengthen the Republicans’ majority in the Senate and retake the majority in the House. At this point, I think accomplishing all 3 things is possible. This isn’t a pipe dream. It’s a legitimate goal.

Anyone that watched President Trump’s 2016 campaign know that it was a shoestring operation. That year’s campaign doesn’t resemble this year’s campaign whatsoever. This article highlights in detail what the Trump-RNC alliance is doing:

Trump Victory, a joint operation comprised of the Trump campaign, the RNC and state Republican parties, kicked off a “National Week of Training” on Friday in a bid to train more than 6,000 volunteers and register voters in 14 states that Republicans have set their sights on for 2020.

Almost a month ago, Brad Parscale, President Trump’s campaign manager, told Martha MacCallum that they were attempting to build a 2,000,000 person army for door-knocking and manning the phone banks. If they accomplish that goal, they’ll be able to expand their targeted states by leaps and bounds.

Expanding Trump’s map puts Democrats on the defensive. It’s one thing if Democrats are just trying to flip Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan back into the blue column. It’s another thing if they have to flip those states while putting precious resources into states like Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire.

I don’t doubt that Democrats will have a well-funded candidate. I’m skeptical, however, that they’ll have a top-tier candidate to support. Each of these candidates is, more or less, a check-the-boxes candidate. Enthusiasm that’s solely driven by hatred of the other party’s candidate isn’t unifying enough. That’s enough to solidify the Democrats’ base. It isn’t nearly enough to attract independents.

It’s difficult to picture any Democrat building the ground game that Trump’s campaign has already built. In 2016, they were just learning. This time, Trump’s campaign team has worked feverishly to build a muscular operation. Team Trump is already light years ahead of 2016. Watching this interview will give you a better understanding of the Trump campaign:

Ronna McDaniel told FNC’s Sandra Smith something that must’ve startled Democrats and excited Republicans. During the interview, McDaniel told Smith that “Listen, women right now can’t vote, but they can vote with their pocketbook. Over 50 percent of the smaller donations coming to the Trump campaign are from women. That’s more than any other Democrat.”

What makes that so significant is that the Trump campaign is getting tons of small-dollar contributions. Also, the Trump campaign is on target to raise the most money in the history of presidential campaigns. McDaniel made a bold prediction that’s worth noting when she predicted that “When the president goes to them in November of 2020 and he says, ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’ women are going to look at their lives and they’re going to say yes I am and they’re going to vote for him.'”

The Democrat nominee will be well-funded but they’ll be at a disadvantage, thanks in large part to the volunteer army that the campaign is recruiting, but also because they’ve already staffed their offices in DC and New York but also in each state across the nation. The Trump/RNC data operation is top notch, too.

On Tuesday Lara Trump told the crowd, “You don’t have to agree with everything that Donald Trump tweets. You don’t have to agree with the way that he delivers every single message. But you sure as heck are going to like the fact that you have a bit of a better life now thanks to this president.”

That’s one hell of a closing argument in 2020.