Archive for the ‘Election 2020’ Category

Larry Jacobs thinks that Amy Klobuchar has reached her prove it point in the race. After a strong debate performance in New Hampshire, she translated that into a mini-fundraising windfall. Then she finished a strong third place there.

I wrote here that Klomentum has disappeared. She had a disappointing debate performance Wednesday. The RCP average of polls shows her in sixth place for the Democrat presidential nomination. There’s no momentum and she’s campaigning in Colorado 2 days before the Nevada Caucuses. Those aren’t the signs of a confident candidate.

At this point, St. Amy’s campaign is just about finished. Prof. Jacobs, political science professor and department head at the University of Minnesota, notes “This is a state where the DFL, the base of the DFL, are probably more progressive than Amy Klobuchar. So I think there’s a real risk that she’ll lose Minnesota. Amy Klobuchar cannot be everywhere at the same time.” About Super Tuesday, Jacobs said “She’s going to need a good showing. We’re getting very close to the ‘prove it’ point.”

I question whether Sen. Klobuchar will still be in the race by Super Tuesday. She’s in 6th place in Nevada the day before that state’s caucuses:

She’s in 6th place in South Carolina, too:

After that campaigning gets expensive in California, Texas, North Carolina, etc. People are hinting that, at this point, she’s really running for VP but I question that. How appealing is she to Bernie or Bloomberg, the 2 likely ‘finalists’ for the Democrat presidential nomination?

If this article sends any message, it’s that Sen. Klobuchar has written off Nevada’s caucuses. This isn’t surprising, considering the fact that she turned in her worst debate performance at the worst possible time. Getting into a food fight with Pete Buttigieg made both look petulant.

The fact that Sen. Klobuchar is campaigning in Colorado, a Super Tuesday state, 2 days before the Nevada Caucuses isn’t a sign of strength. It’s proof that she’s giving up on Nevada. Caucuses take organization, something that Sen. Klobuchar doesn’t have. In New Hampshire, she had a great debate. That catapulted her to a strong third place finish. Her fundraising picked up after that debate, too.

According to RealClearPolitics averages, Sen. Klobuchar hasn’t shown any Klomentum:

The truth is that Sen. Klobuchar’s campaign is essentially dead. After Nevada’s caucuses is South Carolina’s first-in-the-South Primary. She isn’t doing well there, either:

I suspect that South Carolina will be the end of the road for Sen. Klobuchar. Based on this polling from California, I’m betting that Sen. Klobuchar’s fundraising will dry up totally before California:

California is an expensive media state so she wouldn’t be competitive there. If she’s a team player, she’ll drop out after South Carolina. In this video, Klobuchar and Buttigieg both flame out:

Both candidates came across poorly, though I thought Buttigieg came across as a snot-nosed little punk. I thought Klobuchar lost her composure but Buttigieg came across as thoroughly unlikable.

Money won’t erase the memory of Mini Mike’s evasive answer when Elizabeth Warren prosecuted Mini Mike about lawsuits. CNN pundit Van Jones said that Bloomberg looked like the Titanic while Sen. Warren looked like the iceberg. That sums it up pretty nicely. Watch this and decide for yourself:

Obviously, this was a great moment for Sen. Elizabeth Warren. This was likely Sen. Warren’s finest debate performance. Bloomberg’s reply was entirely defensive and evasive. While Sen. Warren demanded specifics, Bloomberg spoke about statistics and awards that his organization had won.

The question that remains is whether this temporarily hurts Bloomberg or whether it sinks his ship. Will he organize a press conference and surround himself with women as character witnesses? Or will voters agree with Sen. Warren that voting for Bloomberg is voting for an out-of-touch billionaire? I suspect that we won’t know the answer to that until Super Tuesday.

Considering the fact that the Democrats’ establishment is frightened to death of Bernie, another thing to watch is whether the Democrats’ establishment will try to resuscitate Bloomberg’s campaign. Prior to last night’s debate, Bloomberg had moved up in the polls by running a pretty decent campaign. The campaign got high marks for their commercials.

Then came last night. No amount of slick ads can eliminate last night’s performance. Further, Bloomberg had gotten hit with one opposition research dump after another that made him look elitist and out-of-touch. His demeaning talk about farmers was particularly disgusting, especially after watching Paul Harvey’s ‘So God made a farmer”:

The farmer in Paul Harvey’s story is strong, virtuous, compassionate, hard-working and the type of man that others look up to. Mini Mike is none of those things. He’s an elitist city slicker who’s hiding something.

To say that Wednesday night went perfectly for President Trump is epic understatement. During his Phoenix rally, President Trump gave the jam-packed arena audience an update on the Democrats’ presidential debate being held in Las Vegas. When he spoke about the Democrats’ presidential debate, Trump said “Now they have a new member of the crew, Mini Mike. No Boxes, we call him No Boxes. I hear he’s getting pounded tonight. I hear they’re pounding him. I think he spent all this money, he has maybe 15 points. Hey, fake news, how many points does he have? They won’t tell you the truth.”

Yes, Mini Mike got pounded Wednesday night. Elizabeth Warren had her best performance by starting strong with this shot:

Wow! Bloomberg looked flummoxed, pissed and uncertain. His face was frozen. (He needs to work on his poker face.) He wasn’t happy being the center of attention. Most importantly, gone was Bloomberg’s TV ad persona. It’s easy to look polished when you aren’t facing live bullets. It’s another thing to look polished when there’s live ammunition coming at you starting in the first minute.

Meanwhile in Phoenix, President Trump had a triumphant rally. He brought the Arizona congressional delegation onto stage. Included in the delegation was Gov. Doug Ducey. Minutes later, President Trump brought up “special guest” Sen. Martha McSally. First, President Trump gave McSally his full endorsement. Then he asked her to speak:

McSally got the crowd on their feet when she said that Mark Kelly “finally admitted” that he’d support Bernie Sanders if he was the Democrats’ nominee. She also ripped into Kelly for his gun-grabbing agenda. It’s difficult to picture Arizonans picking a gun-grabbing socialist over a tax-cutting capitalist who voted to acquit President Trump.

According to this article, Elizabeth Warren was Wednesday’s winner, mostly at Bloomberg’s expense:

Winner: Elizabeth Warren
The Massachusetts senator had performed poorly in the first two primary contests, declined in the national polls, and faded into the background in the past few debates. It looked like her campaign was on death’s door.

It seems like Warren needs a miracle to save her campaign, and while strong debate performances haven’t always translated into good polling in the past, Wednesday night was still one hell of a start. Warren dominated the stage, delivering striking answers in one of the best performances I’ve seen from a presidential candidate — not just in this cycle, but ever.

Then there’s this:

Loser: Mike Bloomberg
Up until Wednesday, Bloomberg’s campaign had been a grand experiment. It eschewed the typical marks of a political campaign — public events, speeches, actual interactions with voters — in favor of an unprecedented ad blitz funded by the former mayor’s seemingly unlimited personal fortune. Bloomberg has spent more than $400 million of his own money on political ads. As my Vox colleague Ezra Klein noted, “if you ignore Tom Steyer, the other self-funding billionaire chasing the Democratic nomination, Bloomberg has spent more than three times as much as all the other Democratic candidates combined.”

President Trump must’ve been smiling Wednesday night. Not only did Trump have fun at the rally but he got great news from the Democrats’ debate.

I first learned about Agnes Gibboney’s story in April, 2018. For LFR readers who aren’t familiar with my post about Agnes, make sure you check it out. After you do that, check out Agnes’ campaign website and learn about Agnes.

Having had the privilege of getting to know Agnes, I can state emphatically that Agnes is the personification of a patriot. When I spoke with her this afternoon, the first thing that impressed me about Agnes is that she isn’t a politician. She’s a doer. She’s running for the congressional seat currently occupied by Congressman Pete Aguilar. The comparison couldn’t be more stark. Agnes’ opponent is a cookie-cutter politician.

On immigration, Agnes’ opponent said “Both parties need to come together to pass comprehensive immigration reform that keeps families together, provides a pathway to citizenship, protects people who were brought to the United States as children from deportation, while also protecting the border and our national security.” Later, he exposed himself as an open borders Democrat:

We need an immigration policy that builds bridges, not walls and keeps families together instead of tearing them apart.

By comparison, Agnes was born in “Budapest, in Soviet controlled communist Hungary.” They wanted to live in the United States “but they were not allowed that choice. They eventually immigrated to Brazil, waiting thirteen years for the family’s US immigration application to be accepted.” Eventually, Agnes became a US citizen.

Agnes is an Angel Mom, having lost her son Ronald when he was 29. Ronald “was murdered by a previously deported illegal alien gang member.” Immigration isn’t just a policy issue. It’s part of who she is. Agnes told me that she wants to “be part of the solution” that finally fixes the US immigration laws, including the asylum laws. While she is a proponent of President Trump’s wall, she admits that a wall by itself isn’t enough.

Agnes said that this presidential election will be a choice between President Trump and a socialist. Agnes plans to help President Trump keep the economy strong. By comparison, Agnes’ opponent said that “I stood up to Republican efforts to give a massive tax cut to the wealthy while leaving middle-class families to foot the bill.” That’s an outright lie. Guy Benson’s tipsheet article notes this:


It’s time to fire career politicians like Pete Aguilar, Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi. These politicians couldn’t tell the truth if their lives depended on it. Follow this link to contribute to Agnes’ campaign. Be part of the team that fires Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. It’s the right fight at the right time. Join with Agnes because she’s the right person to fight this fight.

Bernie Sanders’ Democrat presidential campaign just won a major endorsement ahead of the Nevada Caucus, the South Carolina Primary and Super Tuesday’s slate of events. According to the article, “Mijente, a grass-roots organization that mobilizes Latinx and Chicanx voters, decided to make its first-ever presidential endorsement in response to President Donald Trump’s rhetoric and policies targeting Latinos. The endorsement adds to the growing collection of progressive groups coalescing around the Vermont senator, after earlier expectations they would be divided between him and Elizabeth Warren.”

Politico reports that “Marisa Franco, director and cofounder of Mijente, said the group’s members picked Sanders after a lengthy process that included sit-downs with multiple candidates. In January, its members voted on four options: endorsing Sanders, Warren, both of them, or no endorsement at all. In the end, 70 percent of its members voted to endorse Sanders.

This isn’t insignificant. It’s big news right before the Nevada Caucuses, where Hispanics comprise a significant portion of the voters. If Bernie does well with Hispanics in Nevada, that gives him momentum with that bloc of voters going into Super Tuesday. The biggest prizes on Super Tuesday are California, with 416 delegates, Texas, with 228 delegates, and Florida, with 219 delegates:

Super Tuesday might be a major determining factor for the Democrat nomination, with a total of 1,345 delegates to the Democrat National Convention being up for grabs that night. Democrats require 1,991 delegates to win their nomination.

If Bernie wins Nevada, that means he will have won the popular vote in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. With that type of momentum from the first 3 states, the rest of the states set up nicely for Sen. Sanders. The other thing that’s helping Bernie is the fact that he’s got enough cash to compete with Bloomberg. He can’t match Bloomberg dollar-for-dollar but he doesn’t need to. After all of the opposition research that’s come out against Bloomberg in the past week, Bernie is in a strong position to capitalize on the situation.

Tonight’s debate will play a larger-than-usual role in shaping the race. It wouldn’t surprise me if Bernie captures a strong victory in Nevada on Saturday. It isn’t the delegates that are most important; it’s about maintaining the momentum. If Bernie wins and Buttigieg finishes second, that essentially eliminates the Biden, Warren and Klobuchar campaigns.

The DC pundits who’ve been talking about how the votes for ‘moderate’ Democrat presidential candidates outnumber the votes for radical Democrat presidential candidates likely will be surprised by this poll. Hidden deep within the poll is this statistic:

When the Democratic field is reduced to just Sanders and Bloomberg, Sanders holds a 20-point national lead, 57 percent to 37 percent.

The conventional wisdom has been that Elizabeth Warren’s voters would migrate to Bernie and that Joe Biden’s voters would migrate to either Klobuchar or Buttigieg. Apparently, those voters aren’t getting the memo.

Perhaps it’s true that Democrat primary voters realize that there isn’t that big of a difference between Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar and Buttigieg. Stylistically, there’s a little difference but substantively, the difference is quite tiny. This is good news for President Trump, too:

Turning to the general election in November, 47 percent of all registered voters say they approve of Trump’s job performance, up one percentage point from last month and tied for his all-time high in the NBC News/WSJ poll.

By the time the Democrats pick their nominee, President Trump’s GOTV operation will likely be running at full strength. President Trump’s rallies are part of that GOTV effort but it isn’t all of it. President Trump’s rallies serve as a registration drive, too. After each rally, the Trump campaign announces how many registrations happen, what percentage of the registration were former Democrats, what percentage were minorities and what percentage of registrations hadn’t voted in the last presidential election.

President Trump’s message resonates with people. Bernie’s tax hikes galore won’t resonate outside his base. Bloomberg’s $5,000,000,000,000 tax hike will frighten people. You can’t turn out people who reject your message.

Politico has noticed how effective the Trump-GOP turnout machine is. Their article started by saying “President Donald Trump doesn’t have much of a primary fight on his hands — but Republican voters are nevertheless turning out in droves for him, a warning sign for Democrats in November.”

It expands on that theme, saying “The efforts are paying off, with Republicans turning out in historic numbers. Trump received more than 31,000 votes in the Iowa caucus, surpassing the 25,000 Democrats who turned out during Barack Obama’s successful 2012 reelection bid. Trump’s share was more than four times the number of Republicans who caucused during George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign. The vote totals in New Hampshire were even starker. The president received 129,696 votes, more than doubling Obama and Bush’s totals.”

John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster, said “There is a personal vote for Donald Trump that is unshakeable.” Couvillon then said “Republican voters are willing to go out” to vote for Trump even though he doesn’t have a formidable primary challenge. That presents multiple challenges to the Democrats’ eventual nominee.

First, Trump has already identified his voters. Next, he’s testing his GOTV operation months before the general election. By the time November hits, President Trump’s campaign will be functioning at peak efficiency. Third, President Trump will have plenty of time to define his general election opponent long before his opponent will define himself.

The question is whether President Trump should define Bloomberg as the minority-hating mayor who thinks that he should throw minority students against the wall or whether he should define Bloomberg as a city slicker who thinks that farmers are idiots. My thought is that they should pick both. They both fit.

Does Bloomberg understand that he’ll need to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win the White House? At the rate he’s going, he’ll be lucky to win Minnesota.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Democrats’ presidential candidates are competing with each other in their race to Battleground State irrelevancy. Whether it’s Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren wanting to kill fossil fuels, or Mike Bloomberg insisting that farming is simple, city slicker Democrats apparently think that they can win the White House without winning midwestern battleground states.

While this won’t hurt Democrats with primary voters, it’ll sting the Democrats’ nominee in the general election, especially if Mike Bloomberg is the nominee. Picture the reaction Bloomberg would get across the Midwest when this video goes viral:


This is Bloomberg’s ‘Basket of Deplorables’ moment. That video can be deployed in multiple settings. First, it can be used to show he’s simply hostile to farmers. Next, it can be used to show that he really isn’t interested in uniting the country. Third, it can be used to ask how many other things he’ll have to apologize for. He’s already apologized for Stop-Question-and-Frisk.

The truth is that Mr. Bloomberg has said some rather heartless things. When he talked about throwing minorities up against the wall, he was either in his late 60s or early 70s. Shouldn’t he have known the ramifications of his statements? It isn’t like he was a reckless teenager when he said that.

Sen. Warren’s policies aren’t that appealing and she lies about virtually everything. At a time when people crave authenticity, she’s a phony. This weekend, Amy Klobuchar started flip-flopping while pandering for vote. How will that work? Joe Biden has been disparaging people while calling them disgusting names. He’s told them to vote for other candidates, too. Based on Iowa and New Hampshire, they’ve taken his instructions to heart.

Then there’s Bernie. He wants to eliminate private health care at a time when Democrats can’t even do simple math at their caucuses. Democrats still haven’t finished recanvassing the Iowa Caucuses results, which was 2 weeks ago. They want us to think that they’re proficient at figuring out complexities in the health care laws? I don’t think so.

Bernie will have difficulty defending President Trump’s attacks. Bernie wants to keep his money but he wants other millionaires to pay their fair share. Bernie’s policies will cripple this booming economy. How popular will that be with voters? Hint: The answer to that question rhymes with ‘it won’t.’

Apparently, with Democrats, once just isn’t enough. Having totally screwed up Iowa’s caucuses, Democrats aren’t satisfied. According to PJ Media’s reporting, Nevada Democrats are intent on taking the fun out of dysfunctional:

In interviews, three caucus volunteers described serious concerns about rushed preparations for the Feb. 22 election, including insufficient training for a newly-adopted electronic vote-tally system and confusing instructions on how to administer the caucuses. There are also unanswered questions about the security of Internet connections at some 2,000 precinct sites that will transmit results to a central “war room” set up by the Nevada Democratic Party.

What could possibly go wrong? Here’s what might go wrong:

Some volunteers who will help run caucuses at precinct locations said they have not been trained on iPads that the party purchased to enter and transmit vote counts. Party officials scrambled to streamline their vote reporting system, settling on Google forms accessible through a saved link on the iPads, after scrapping a pair of apps they’d been planning to use until a similar app caused the fiasco in Iowa two weeks ago.

The Democrats’ problem isn’t the caucuses. The Democrats’ problem is that they don’t run things. Democrats don’t fix things, either. Democrats aren’t skilled problem-solvers. The Democratic Party was stronger when they had lots of governors. Bill Clinton was a governor who ran things. Barack Obama was a professor, then a senator. He didn’t run things. He just talked a lot. President Clinton made life better for people. President Obama didn’t make life better for people.

Bloomberg has run things but he’s cozied up to the nastiest people on earth. He’s done his best to ignore the Chinese leadership’s corruption. He’s even said that “Xi Jinping isn’t a dictator.” Seriously, he said that:

Bloomberg isn’t an idiot. He just plays one on TV when he’s trying to pander to the Chinese. Bloomberg is just a globalist who will sell out his nation so he can keep China open for business. His business. He’s President Trump’s opposite. President Trump stood up to China. Then he got them to cave on forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft. What about Bloomberg? He didn’t care how many Americans he had to sell out. He just cared about profits.

How will Bernie’s Bros take that? Bloomberg didn’t just sell us out. He’s attempting to buy the White House so he can sell us out. I’m not ok with that. I’m totally not ok with that. It’s ok to make profits. It isn’t ok to sell out this incredible nation.

Back to Nevada, though. Democrats have had 3+ weeks to put a system in place. They still haven’t put that fool-proof system together. I don’t know if they ever will. These Democrats are the ‘Gang who can’t think straight.’ Bill Clinton at least kept the trains running on time. Obama didn’t care if there were trains that ran. Bernie doesn’t care about anything except stealing everyone’s private health care. Trusting him with running our nation’s health care is as stupid as trusting an arsonist to put out a fire.