Archive for the ‘Polling’ Category

President Trump hasn’t been bashful in calling Nancy Pelosi the “Republicans’ secret weapon” in the 2018 election. Perhaps the President needs to rethink that opinion. It isn’t that Pelosi has quickly gotten popular. She’s still as unpopular as ants at a picnic. It’s that Chuck Schumer’s popularity has taken a significant dip recently.

The latest Quinnipiac University Poll “found that 53 percent of voters approve of the job the minority leader is doing in the Senate, while 35 percent do not approve. That is the lowest approval rating Schumer has received since 1999, just months after he was first elected to the U.S. Senate.”

Sen. Schumer is a major drag on battleground state Democrats. How many Democrat senators he’ll hurt remains to be seen but his decisions have already contributed to the Democrats’ vulnerable situation going into 2018. The #SchumerShutdown hurt immensely. The only thing that’s hurt Democrats more was unanimously rejecting the Trump/GOP tax cuts. As a result, Democrats should consider a net loss of less than 5 seats in the Senate a moral victory.

The latest Democrat mistake is rejecting President Trump’s immigration plan. The Common Sense Coalition’s plan isn’t serious about border security, which I explained in this post:

On Pg. 51 of the amendment, we learn that $1,571,000,000,000 is appropriated to build President Trump’s wall in 2018. Further, $2,500,000,000,000 is available to be appropriated in each year starting in 2019 and going through 2027. Further, the legislative language states that “the amount specified in subsection (d) for each of fiscal years 2019-2027 shall not be available for such fiscal year unless (A) the Secretary submits to Congress, not later than 60 days before the start of such fiscal year a report setting forth a description of every planned expenditure…, (B) a description of the total number of miles of security fencing… etc.

The money isn’t appropriated all at once, meaning that future congresses can stop the building of the wall. Don’t think President Trump won’t campaign against red state Democrats on that issue this fall. I’d bet the proverbial ranch that will be a major thorn in the Democrats’ sides.

Democrats shouldn’t think that they have political cover on this, either. Just because Jeff Flake, Lindsey Graham and Bob Corker signed onto the bill doesn’t provide cover. It simply means the American people reject them, saying a pox on all their houses. The American people want real border security. They aren’t interested in political gamesmanship, which is what the Collins-Durbin-Graham bill was. This video is misleading:

Just $1,571,000,000 is appropriated to build the wall. The rest of the money is promised but not appropriated. Sound familiar?

Democrats are playing a risky game. Don’t bet on it turning out well for them this fall.

UPDATE: This video exposes Democrats:

It’s truly amazing what good policy will do for a political party’s fortunes. Put differently, good policy makes for great politics. It always has. It always will. The Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot question has officially disappeared.

That’s the verdict of “a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll that, for the first time since April, also shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating equaling the percentage of voters who disapprove of his job performance. Fully 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. Nearly a quarter of voters, 23 percent, are undecided.” With almost 9 months left until the midterm election, there’s time for several dozen more swings.

Still, there’s no disputing that Democrats lost ground after voting unanimously against the Trump/GOP tax cuts. What’s worse is that they’re caught in a difficult situation on DACA/immigration reform. If Democrats don’t make a deal on immigration, a major part of their base will be upset with them. What’s worse is that another significant part of their base will be upset if they do cut a deal with President Trump on immigration.

That’s what a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t situation looks like.

I never took the ‘building blue wave’ talk seriously for multiple reasons. First, Democrats haven’t done enough to win back blue collar voters to expand their bi-coastal base. Until Democrats start taking blue collar workers seriously, they’ll be the minority party. It’s that simple.

Next, Democrats made huge strategic mistakes by unanimously voting against the Trump/GOP tax cuts. I can’t emphasize enough how that’s killing Democrats. What’s making that worse is Nancy Pelosi’s bone-headed “crumbs” statement:

That’s what being tone deaf sounds like. It’s this cycle’s “basket of deplorables” moment:

Later, Democrats made the mistake of unanimously voting for shutting down the government. Then Democrats compounded that by voting to re-open government by voting yes for the exact same bill that they voted against on Friday night. Talk about Keystone cops. This can’t make Tom Perez happy:

The new year has also produced a Trump polling bump. In the new poll, 47 percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while the same percentage disapprove.

Just 6 short weeks ago, President Trump was in the upper 30’s. Now, he’s in the upper 40’s in terms of approval rating. These statistics can’t leave the DCCC smiling:

“Not only have Republicans increased support on the generic congressional ballot, they are now trusted more to handle the most important issue when voters head to the polls: the economy,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer. “In mid-December, 39 percent of voters said they trusted Democrats more to handle the economy, compared to 38 percent who said Republicans. Today, 43 percent say Republicans and 32 percent say Democrats.”

That’s a huge swing in 2 months. With the economy growing and showing no signs of slowing down, it isn’t foolish to think that the generic ballot question might cast the Republicans in a more positive light by Memorial Day.

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Monmouth University’s latest polling suggests that the big blue wave threatening the Republicans’ majorities in the US House and US Senate isn’t as threatened as before. When asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?”, 42% said that they approved while 50% disapproved. Last month, those that approved was only 32% while 56% disapproved. A 16-point drop in a month is gigantic.

In another troubling sign for Democrats, people polled were asked which party they’d vote for if the “election for House of Representatives were held today”, “47% of registered voters say they would vote for or lean toward voting for the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 45% who would support the Republican. This marks a dramatic shift from last month, when Democrats held a 15 point advantage on the generic ballot (51% to 36%).”

In the running for understatement of the year, Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said “Democrats who counted on riding public hostility toward the tax bill to retake the House may have to rethink that strategy.” That ties directly into this poll question:

The trend definitely favors Republicans. A month ago, President Trump’s approval-disapprove rating was -24. This month, it’s -8. A month ago, Republicans trailed Democrats by 15 points on the generic ballot question. Today, Republicans trail Democrats by 2 points.

If this trend continues, and it’s anyone’s guess on whether it continues, Republicans will hold their majority in the House. If President Trump maintains his popularity rating, Republicans will pick up seats in the Senate, most likely in the 4-6 seat range.

One of the Democrats’ talking points is that Republicans face an election with the wind in their face. I’m a contrarian in that I think Republicans face this election with a gentle summer breeze in their face. If that’s how Republicans weather the storm that the Democrats threw at them the past year, I’d suggest that they’re in great shape.

Recently, the Republicans’ deficit in the generic ballot polling has seen significant improvement. It still isn’t where I’d like it to be but it’s trending in the right direction. What’s got to worry Democrats, in addition to their losing ground on the generic ballot polling, is the improvement in President Trump’s approval rating.

According to the article, a “Fox News Poll conducted at the end of President Trump’s first year in the White House finds more voters rate the economy positively today than have in nearly two decades. And they give the White House credit for that: nearly twice as many say the Trump administration has made the economy better than made it worse: 40 percent vs. 22 percent. One-third says the administration has not made a difference (34 percent).”

Democrats will have a difficult time explaining away why the economy has dramatically improved since President Obama left office. They’ll have difficulty explaining the question “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues? Economy: Approve 51%, Disapprove 41%, Not Sure 8%”

Overall, President Trump’s approval rating has improved:

The “condition of the economy” has improved, too:

In fact, it’s improved quite dramatically. As I’ve said before, in the past, recessions have ended without people feeling like it’s ended. The Great Recession ended during President Obama’s administration but people didn’t notice their lives improving. Thanks to the Trump/GOP tax cuts and the Trump/GOP deregulation and mostly because companies are handing out big bonuses and/or pay raises or improving employee benefits.

BTW, those pay raises and bonuses aren’t crumbs like this buffoon thinks:

Finally, Democrats will have a difficult time explaining why they voted unanimously against the Trump/GOP tax cuts. Anyone that thinks there’s a big blue wave building that’s going to swamp Republicans should take another look at what the polls are saying.

This article is good news for GOP gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie, saying “The new poll of likely Virginia voters by Republican firm Optimus/Firehouse Strategies over Wednesday and Thursday shows Gillespie leading his Democratic opponent Ralph Northam by 40.4 percent to 37.4 percent.” The thing that’s most encouraging, though, is that the Latino Victory Fund ad enraged independents and fired up Republicans.

As a result, turnout should be high for the GOP candidate. Meanwhile, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam is having difficulty turning out the Obama coalition. Those 2 things should help deliver a victory for a victory to Governor-Elect-in-Waiting Gillespie.

Turnout for Northam might be hurt because he’s played into Republicans’ hands on sanctuary cities. The article says “Northam has also received criticism among party members and progressive voter groups for his break with party rhetoric on so-called sanctuary cities, which do not comply with federal immigration laws, saying he would sign legislation banning them ‘if that bill comes to my desk.'” First, that’s taking a defensive position, which isn’t good anytime but especially troubling the last week of a campaign.

Then there’s this:

Following headliner Stephen K. Bannon, executive chairman of Breitbart News, populist-nationalist 2018 U.S. Senate candidate Corey Stewart addressed the Remembrance Project National Conference in Washington, DC, Saturday. The event, at the capital’s famous Willard Hotel, featured a “who’s who” of leaders in the fight against illegal immigration, including headliner Bannon, Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton, and Colorado gubernatorial candidate Tom Tancredo, in Remembrance Project’s largest annual event to honor Americans killed by illegal alien crime and the “angel families” they left behind.

Finally, there’s this observation:

“MS-13 is not just a Northern Virginia problem. It’s not just in Northern Virginia and tidewater,” Stewart told Breitbart News on Saturday. “It is spreading down the [Interstate] 81 corridor and is becoming a statewide issue … It’s an issue that will drive not only conservatives but independent voters who are concerned about it.”

The winner of the big elections is the candidate that finds the issue that evokes the most visceral reaction. I think MS-13 is this year’s visceral issue. We’ll see Tuesday night whether I’m right.

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When I wrote this post early Monday morning, I was stunned at what Doug Schoen, Bill Clinton’s former pollster, said on Fox Report with Harris Faulkner. What caught my attention is what half-frightened Ms. Faulkner. Mr. Schoen said “As you know, I have been a supporter of Secretary Clinton… But given that this investigation is going to go on for many months after the election… But if the Secretary of State wins, we will have a president under criminal investigation, with Huma Abedin under criminal investigation, with the Secretary of State, the president-elect, should she win under investigation. Harris, under these circumstances, I am actively reassessing my support. I’m not a Trump –”

At that point, Faulkner replied “Whoa, whoa, wait a minute. You are not going to vote for Hillary Clinton?”

When I saw this video, I saw that it was a rather lengthy video at over 13 minutes. Immediately, I thought it was the video of the entire Political Insiders segment, something that I’d wanted to see. When I started watching the video, though, it was immediately clear that this wasn’t from Sunday night’s show. That was confirmed when Ms. Faulkner said that it was streaming live on Facebook. First, here’s the video:

It’s a lengthy video but it’s worth watching it from beginning to end. Right at the start, Ms. Faulkner had a discussion with Mr. Schoen over what happened on Sunday night’s Fox Report. Here’s a partial transcript of that opening conversation:

HARRIS FAULKNER: But first, the man who made news on Fox Report Sunday night, last night, by saying that, after all the many years, decades, that he’s known Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, he’s had a change of heart and I want to bring in Doug Schoen. So, first of all, it’s great to see you.
DOUG SCHOEN: It’s great to see you, too.
FAULKNER: We’re sitting on set last night and we’re always on our devices and I didn’t realize this was happening but you made an announcement. What was it?
SCHOEN: Here’s what I said. I said that after working very harmoniously and I think very successfully for Bill Clinton for 6 years in the White House, and having been a steadfast supporter of Hillary Clinton — I helped her in her Senate campaigns, been a supporter of her first presidential campaign and, until last night, her second presidential campaign, I said ‘given what’s happened, I just cannot continue to support her candidacy. I’m not changing to become a Trump supporter. My world view is the same but I can’t vote somebody who can yield or produce an immediate constitutional crisis.

This isn’t the script for Mrs. Clinton’s coronation. Mrs. Clinton still might win but I’m guaranteeing that this won’t yield the coronation DC’s pundits predicted after the first presidential debate.

I’ve been searching for a liberal who was an American first for years. There’s no disputing that Ron Fournier is an American first. I hadn’t found another one until Sunday night. That’s when I found 2 of them: Patrick Caddell, Jimmy Carter’s pollster in 1980, and Doug Schoen, Bill Clinton’s pollster for 6 years.

The unanswered question is whether Schoen’s shocking announcement gives other DLC Democrats ‘permission’ to abandon Mrs. Clinton. We’ll find out in a week.

Stewart Mills’ supporters in the Eighth District should be cautiously optimistic after KSTP announced the results of their latest poll of the district. According to the poll, “Stewart Mills leads Democratic incumbent Rick Nolan by four points in Minnesota’s 8th District, 45 percent to 41 percent, in our exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. However, a significant number of voters remain undecided, 14 percent, and could swing this election either way.” Stewart Mills’ supporters should be cautiously optimistic because Mills led Nolan by 8 points at this point in 2014 and wound up losing by 3,000+ votes.

This year, the dynamics have changed significantly, though. First, Hillary Clinton is dragging Nolan down. According to KSTP’s poll, “the top of the Democratic ticket, Hillary Clinton, appears to be very unpopular in the 8th District. Our poll shows Republican Donald Trump with a 12-point lead over Clinton, 47 percent to 35 percent.” Stewart Mills is hammering Nolan on that fact in his stump speeches and in his advertising. This ad highlights Mills’ argument beautifully:

Here’s the transcript of the ad:

MILLS: I’m Stewart Mills and I approve this message.
NARRATOR: Hillary Clinton promises to kill mining jobs all across America.
HILLARY CLINTON: We’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.
NARRATOR: Here in Minnesota, Rick Nolan is doing the same. Nolan supports Hillary’s war on coal. He voted for anti-mining regulations that are destroying Minnesota jobs and sticking middle class families with higher energy bills. Rick Nolan and Hillary Clinton are job killers.

This is interesting, too:

Nolan might also be facing resistance from voters over his support of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and his desire to go even further and implement “universal,” or government-run health care. Our KSTP/SurveyUSA poll indicates 45 percent of those surveyed in the 8th District favor repeal of the ACA, 30 percent say there need to be changes to the program and 13 percent say they favor universal health care.

Gov. Dayton isn’t doing Nolan any favors by switching his position on the ACA seemingly on a daily basis. Each day, Gov. Dayton either talks about the need for a special session or says something provocative or he flip-flops. The point is that Gov. Dayton has kept this story alive for over a week. Here’s what the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll found were the Eighth District’s priorities:

When asked which issue is most important to them when deciding their vote, health care came in as the top choice at 26 percent. Another 25 percent cited terrorism and national security while 13 percent said taxes. Mining came in at six percent, education at 5 percent and foreign trade at four percent.

Last night, Mills and Nolan squared off in a debate. Mills did an effective job of prosecuting his case against Nolan on energy and mining. Approximately 4 minutes into this video, Mills rattles off a series of points against Nolan’s green agenda:

It’s apparent that Mills learned some important lessons from his 2014 campaign. Let’s hope that the results are better this time.

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Much internet bandwidth has been used on who won Monday night’s presidential debate. Two of the best political thinkers think that Trump won. Pat Caddell, Jimmy Carter’s pollster, has some interesting statistics that indicate some interesting things that contradict conventional wisdom. In this article, Caddell notes that “48 percent said Clinton did a better job, compared to 43 percent, who said Trump did the better job” before noting “95 percent of the people we contacted told us they were not going to change their vote based on the debate.”

Caddell then noted that “Trump won on the most critical factor, on whether Clinton or Trump was more ‘plausible’ as president, 46 percent to her 42 percent,” saying that “that, for him, was what this debate was really about.” Dovetailing off of that is the fact that, according to Caddell, “forty-eight percent of respondents said in the debate Trump showed he would be a strong leader, compared with 44 percent for Clinton.”

That’s the statistical side of things. Newt Gingrich’s op-ed provides the analysis:

The Intellectual Yet Idiot class that dominates our news media fell all over themselves critiquing Trump and praising Holt and Clinton. In doing so, they repeated the mistake they have made about every debate since August 2015.

Trump wins strategically because in a blunt, clear style, he is saying things most Americans believe.

With 70% of the country thinking that we’re heading in the wrong direction, it’s a major victory for a candidate to win the people’s trust. That’s confirmed by Salena Zito’s reporting, which Gingrich cited here:

Salena Zito is one of the country’s most perceptive journalists, in part because she is grounded outside of Washington and New York. Her column about the debate, “How Trump Won Over a Bar of Undecideds and Democrats,” should be required reading for everyone who wants to understand why Trump strategically won the debate.

After that, Gingrich mocked the elitists:

Trump has a hard time with media elites because they earn a living by talking. The media values glibness. In their world you can speak nonsense if you do it smoothly and convincingly. Trump is a blunt, let’s-make-a-deal, let’s-get-the-building-built, let’s-sell-our-product businessman. The first debate showcased a blunt, plain spoken businessman and a polished professional politician.

In other words, the fight was word salad vs. leadership. Here’s how that worked out:

Time: Trump 55 Clinton 45
Fortune: Trump 53, Clinton 47
N.J.com (New Jersey): Trump 57.5, Clinton 37.78
CNBC: Trump 68, Clinton 32
WCPO Cincinnati: Trump 57, Clinton 37
Variety: Trump 58.12, Clinton 41.88
Slate: Trump 55.18, Clinton 44.82
WKRN Nashville: Trump 64.58, Clinton 35.42
Las Vegas Sun: Trump 82, Clinton 18
Fox5 San Diego: Trump 61.45, Clinton 33.69
San Diego Tribune: Trump 65, Clinton 35


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It isn’t difficult to find articles telling us that the presidential race is essentially finished and that Hillary will be our next president. Thus far, what’s evident is that Mr. Trump has righted himself to a certain extent. That’s mostly attributable to hiring Kellyanne Conway. She’s brought a focus to the campaign that’s been quite noticeable.

The other thing that’s led to this tightening is how pathetic Hillary has looked. I’m reminded of an old song that they played on Hee Haw. The song said “if it weren’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all.” While I can’t attribute HRC’s fall to bad luck, I’ll certainly attribute her fall to bad news cycle after bad news cycle. Charles Krauthammer put it perfectly, stating “Look, I don’t think this is really complicated. She’s been in the news. It’s all been bad since the Comey press conference. Every bit of news is always about emails, about the Clinton Foundation, the corruption. That’s the only news we are getting. Of course, it’s her numbers that are declining. Trump has been up and down but he’s been relatively stable and that’s why we are where we are today.”

It’s still far too early to predict anyone as the victor. It’s definitely too early to predict that for Trump, especially, though, because it isn’t clear that he’s passed the commander-in-chief test. If Mr. Trump passes that test relatively soon, then the race will take a different perspective. At that point, if it happens, Trump will become a fully plausible candidate.

Finally, it’s foolish to count on this stretch of terrible news cycles to propel Mr. Trump to victory — yet. It isn’t foolish to think that Hillary isn’t capable to performing terribly. Just remember Hillary’s disastrous book tour a couple years ago.

And now, those words from Charles:

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Donald Trump’s acceptance speech last night has been characterized as being scary or dark by Democrats. Mo Elleithee, a former Hillary campaign spokesman, said that this was a dreadful week for the GOP. That’s spin but not very good spin.

Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s pollster, said that she expects Trump and Hillary to be tied in all of the major swing states when the swing state polls start coming out. While it’s wise to take anything from a candidate’s pollster with a grain of salt, I’ve watched Mrs. Conway since she was Ms. Fitzpatrick. She isn’t a spinner. She’s earned the benefit of the doubt with me.

As for Trump’s speech, it was different in important and profound ways. He stripped away the façade that the Obama administration has hidden behind for 8 years. It started when Mr. Trump said “It is finally time for a straightforward assessment of the state of our nation. I will present the facts plainly and honestly. We cannot afford to be so politically correct anymore. So if you want to hear the corporate spin, the carefully-crafted lies, and the media myths, the Democrats are holding their convention next week. Go there.”

Think of that as Trump’s way of telling the elitists in the media and in the Democratic Party (pardon the repetition) that America would hear the truth. Here’s an example of that truthfulness:

These are the facts:

Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement. Homicides last year increased by 17% in America’s fifty largest cities. That’s the largest increase in 25 years. In our nation’s capital, killings have risen by 50 percent. They are up nearly 60 percent in nearby Baltimore.

In the president’s hometown of Chicago, more than 2,000 have been the victims of shootings this year alone. And almost 4,000 have been killed in the Chicago area since he took office. The number of police officers killed in the line of duty has risen by almost 50 percent compared to this point last year.

Democrats say that the speech was dark. Let’s ask this question: Are those the type of statistics that should make us feel happy? Or are they the type of statistics that make your heart ache? If that wasn’t enough information to make a decision on, this will help thoughtful people make the right decision:

One such border-crosser was released and made his way to Nebraska. There, he ended the life of an innocent young girl named Sarah Root. She was 21 years old and was killed the day after graduating from college with a 4.0 grade point average. Her killer was then released a second time, and he is now a fugitive from the law. I’ve met Sarah’s beautiful family. But to this administration, their amazing daughter was just one more American life that wasn’t worth protecting. One more child to sacrifice on the altar of open borders.

There’s no spinning that story. If I were to put it in tennis language, that story would be “Game. Set. Match. Championship.” Thoughtful people can’t hear that story and think we need to continue this administration’s immigration policies.

This is a powerful indictment of Hillary’s incompetence:

In 2009, pre-Hillary, ISIS was not even on the map. Libya was stable. Egypt was peaceful. Iraq had seen a big reduction in violence. Iran was being choked by sanctions. Syria was somewhat under control.

After four years of Hillary Clinton, what do we have? ISIS has spread across the region and the entire world. Libya is in ruins, and our ambassador and his staff were left helpless to die at the hands of savage killers. Egypt was turned over to the radical Muslim Brotherhood, forcing the military to retake control. Iraq is in chaos. Iran is on the path to nuclear weapons. Syria is engulfed in a civil war and a refugee crisis that now threatens the West. After 15 years of wars in the Middle East, after trillions of dollars spent and thousands of lives lost, the situation is worse than it has ever been before.

This is the legacy of Hillary Clinton: Death, destruction and terrorism and weakness.

That’s a devastating and accurate before and after portrait of Hillary’s incompetence. Think of it as the indictment the Justice Department didn’t attempt to get.

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