Archive for the ‘Polling’ Category

In Election Day 2016, 538 predicted that Hillary Clinton had an 85% chance of winning. I’m still waiting for Hillary Clinton’s first executive order. This year, they’ve stated that Joe Biden has a 90% chance of winning the presidential election. This year, they’ll be badly wrong again.

Inside this article, it says “The electoral math is pretty simple. Biden needs to find 38 electoral votes on top of the 232 in the contests that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. He’s likely to win the one from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Remember, the state of Nebraska allocates an electoral vote to the winner of each of its congressional districts.”

This isn’t just partisanship. It’s sloppy work. Joe Biden was in Nebraska once. Ditto with President Trump. The difference is that President Trump’s event attracted 43,651 people to it. Of those 43,651 people, 40.2% of them weren’t Republicans. Biden’s event attracted reporters and a handful of supporter. Further, Nebraska is a deep red state.

On top of that, Biden holds clear and significant leads in two states Trump won by less than a point in 2016: Michigan and Wisconsin. A CNN/SSRS poll on Saturday put Biden up 12 points in Michigan among likely voters, while Biden led in Wisconsin by 8 points in a CNN/SSRS poll and 11 points in a New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday.

A week ago, Trafalgar, which got 2016 right, had Biden leading by 1. That Biden lead is gone now. Wisconsin is trending Trump now. Insider Advantage has Trump trailing by 2 in Michigan. Trafalgar has Trump leading by 2 in Michigan.

This is ridiculous:

Biden could also get to 270 electoral votes with North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes. A CNN/SSRS poll had Biden up by 6 points there yesterday, while the polling average puts the race closer to a 3 point edge. This is a race that Biden is favored to win, though one where an average sized polling error (about 3 points in competitive presidential races dating back to 1972) would be enough for Trump to emerge victorious.

Trump wins NC by 2-3 points. This tells me that the CNN poll is worthless and shouldn’t be counted.

In terms of vote counts from battleground states, it’s likely to be a close race. From an electoral vote count, though, Trump will finish with 306-330 votes.

Former President Barack Obama rallied 273 cars in Orlando this morning. Appearing on FNC’s Outnumbered, former Reagan Education Secretary Bill Bennett said that President Obama’s crowd went back “as far as the arm could stretch.” By comparison, there are twice as many people in a single section of stands at a Trump rally than there are in an entire Obama rally.

President Obama scolded the nation for electing President Trump, saying he didn’t expect President Trump to follow his policies, then saying that he’d hoped he’d take the job seriously. That’s a breathtakingly dishonest statement, especially coming from a former president. The Trump administration has negotiated more peace deals involving Israel in the past 3 months than all previous US presidents did combined. President Trump and the GOP Senate have appointed and confirmed 250 judges and 3 Supreme Court justices.

Does President Obama think that sounds like an unserious man? I don’t think that. President Obama is fighting for what little is left of his limited legacy. A Trump re-election would wipe out President Obama’s legacy and put smiles on people’s faces. I had the opportunity to watch this speech live:

I’m thankful I opted not to watch. President Trump’s list of accomplishments is lengthy, covers multiple subjects and won’t be undone anytime soon.

Emma Trittin, a University of Central Florida senior, said her age group of 18-29-year-olds was coming out in force this year, with more than 400,000 voting early. “I think Floridians are really fed up with how the past four years have gone with the Trump administration,” she said. “Youth are really stepping up and voting because they know that they have power in their voice.”

Ms. Trittin is ill-informed. According to pollsters Matt Towery of Insider Advantage and John Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group, people in the 30-44 age group have moved towards President Trump since last Thursday’s presidential debate. They attribute the exodus to Biden’s lockdown language.

Despite DFL Gov. Tim Walz’s total failure during the COVID-19 crisis, his approval has increased. While that’s disappointing, it’s understandable. Because the Twin Cities media hasn’t asked Gov. Walz a single hard-hitting question, much less a difficult follow-up question, all Gov. Walz has to do is not totally disintegrate to have his approval improve.

To the Twin Cities media, it isn’t relevant that hundreds of lives have needlessly been lost in long-term care facilities. The Minnesota Department of Health, aka MDH, can be utterly incompetent but that apparently doesn’t impact Gov. Walz’s approval rating, either. Who cares that 500,000 Minnesotans have lost their jobs as a direct result of Gov. Walz’s tight-fisted lockdown order? After all, they’re just jobs. It isn’t like they’re important to people.

Gov. Walz is still letting COVID patients into nursing homes. That’s led to a high percentage of COVID-related deaths coming from long-term care (LTC) facilities. Unfortunately, that’s the only category Minnesota leads in.

Minnesota’s economy is tattered. The percentage of COVID-related deaths in LTC facilities is the highest in the nation. Gov. Walz’s orders have been supported by the DFL. Most importantly, those policies haven’t worked. Some policies have been reversed just days after implementation. Bankruptcies are increasing rapidly. Life savings have gotten lost. Family businesses have gotten shut down.

What part of that sounds like something worthy of a 65% approval rating? It sounds more worthy of a 35% approval rating. Gov. Walz is a failure from a medical and financial standpoint. He’s especially failed from a constitutional standpoint. Initially, Gov. Walz “had said churches would have to wait before reopening for large, in-person services until subsequent phases in his reopening process, but gave no date for when that would happen.” This past Saturday, he changed his mind. Perhaps this is why:

A U.S. District Court judge in Minnesota will conduct a hearing Tuesday about a temporary restraining order on behalf of Minnesota churches to suspend enforcement of Minnesota’s Stay Safe MN order as it relates to religious services. The telephone hearing is scheduled for 1 p.m. Tuesday. It will address the Governor’s current phase of the Stay Safe MN order, which restricts church services to 10 people or fewer.

Check out this headline:

Gov. Tim Walz to let Minnesota churches open at 25% occupancy

This is why the Twin Cities media constantly doesn’t understand the Constitution. Gov. Walz isn’t letting anything. He’s being forced into changing because that’s what the Constitution requires. When you have constitutionally illiterate idiots writing things like that, it isn’t surprising that Gov. Walz isn’t getting asked difficult questions.

Equal application of the law is essential. Gov. Walz failed that test. I’m not surprised.

It’s fair to ask if Democrats are reaching the wrong conclusion. At this point, a legitimate argument can be sustained that the pundits aren’t reading things right. Chris Cillizza’s article highlights the latest Gallup Poll, which finds that “Trump’s job approval is back to 49%, matching the highest it’s ever been, while his disapproval is at 47%. That marks a 6-point improvement on Trump’s approval number from the last Gallup tracking poll. And that improvement comes exclusively from independents, 47% of whom now approve of the job Trump is doing, the best he has ever done among that group in Gallup polling.”

One way to look at this data is by eliminating the partisans from both sides, then focus on independent voters. Independent voters aren’t tied to ideology. They’re focused on who’s solving problems and who’s looking to taking the next step in ending this China-induced nightmare. That’s clearly been President Trump. I won’t dispute the fact that President Trump’s made mistakes. In a crisis, that’s inevitable. Still, his mistakes have happened while trying to move the nation to a better place. He’s worked hard in getting more ventilators built. He’s built hospital space in California, New Jersey and New York. Testing has increased dramatically. He’s working on changing supply chains from relying on China to relying on domestic manufacturers.

That’s before talking about the things he’s done to reopen the economy. That’s a lengthy list, too, especially including the PPP and the relief payments. He’s advocating for reopening the economy quickly but safely. He doesn’t always agree with the scientists but he isn’t ignoring them, either. That’s reading the American people right. Then there’s this:

The Point: Be wary of conventional wisdom. Especially when it concerns Trump.

If ever there was a president that shouldn’t be underestimated, President Trump is that president. Let’s remember all of the ground game that the Trump campaign built before the COVID pandemic. That volunteer army hasn’t disappeared. That GOTV machine is still intact. At this point, the Biden campaign’s social media game, to use Larry Jacobs’ phrase, is just starting spring training. Meanwhile, figuratively speaking, the Trump campaign is working on its 6-pack abs for the summer.

This recent Gallup Poll shows the approval ratings for Republicans and Democrats heading in the opposite directions. According to Megan Brenan, the “rating for Republicans in Congress has risen six percentage points since late October, before the impeachment of President Donald Trump in the U.S. House of Representatives. Over the same period, congressional Democrats’ approval rating has edged down three points and disapproval has climbed five points, from 57% to 62%.”

Brenan later highlights the finding as “Although majorities of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, as well as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, approve of the job their own party’s members of Congress are doing, there is a significant difference between the two groups. Republicans’ approval of congressional Republicans has jumped 13 points to 76% since October, but Democrats’ 65% approval of congressional Democrats is virtually unchanged from October.”

This is interesting, too:

Just as the public’s assessments of congressional Republicans appear to have benefited from Trump’s impeachment, so too has Trump. In January and February, the president’s job approval rating rose to his personal best of 49%; it remains elevated from where it was before his impeachment. Likewise, Trump’s favorability rating, which was 41% in October, reached 48% in January and is currently 46%, including 89% favorable among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

The Republican who should be most worried by this poll is Mitt Romney:

Utah Sen. Mitt Romney was the sole Republican to break with his party and vote to convict Trump on one of the two charges in the Senate impeachment trial. Although Romney’s 39% favorability among U.S. adults is unchanged from a year ago, he is currently viewed more favorably among Democrats than he is among Republicans, a reversal of previous readings. A 56% majority of Democrats but just 23% of Republicans now hold favorable views of Romney.

Utah is a caucus state so whether Utah Republicans approve of him matters. It was only a few years ago that Utah Republicans threw out Sen. Bennett and replaced him with Mike Lee. Republicans disliked Bennett so bad that he didn’t get enough support to get on the primary ballot.

With Super Tuesday literally just days away, the question that all of the pundits are asking is whether Joe Biden will get a bounce from his victory Saturday night. A quick scan of the RCP average of polls for Super Tuesday primaries shows Bernie Sanders with leads in most of the states, including delegate-rich Texas and California. Sen. Sanders also leads in Virginia and Massachusetts. The RCP average shows Sen. Sanders running away with Colorado and Utah.

If things go well for Sanders on Tuesday night, he’ll be in a dominant position to win the Democrats’ presidential nomination. That’s what I’m expecting. Further, I’m expecting Biden to do just well enough to continue but not well enough to contend. I expect Klobuchar, Warren and Buttigieg to drop out of the race, with Klobuchar having the best shot at doing well enough to stay in the race.

California will send a harsh signal to the Democrats. Here’s why:

There’s an outside possibility that Sanders will be the only candidate who will win California delegates. If that’s what happens, Sanders will be virtually unstoppable. Sanders also leads in Texas:

This doesn’t sound like the type of performance Biden and the Democrats’ Establishment needs. If things go according to the RCP average in each of these states, Bernie will be the prohibitive favorite to be the Democrats’ nominee. After that, expect to hear about lots of article with ideas on how to steal the nomination from Bernie.

Based on his actions, it’s more than fair to question Collin Peterson’s loyalty to Nancy Pelosi. In this post, I wrote that Pelosi had disrespected Peterson, omitting him from the USMCA press conference. In December, Peterson said that he hadn’t decided whether he’d run or retire but that he’d make up his mind “in January or February.” Today is Feb. 25 so there isn’t much time to make a decision. This tweet might tell us what he’s going to do:


“I’m not sure I want to win.” Let that sink in a bit. Think about whether Collin Peterson would want to be part of the minority party again. Think about whether Collin Peterson would want to have to deal with AOC + 3. (I think that’s his worst nightmare but I might be wrong.)

Personally, I question whether Peterson could win. He isn’t the perfect match for the District that he used to be. Peterson’s voted against President Trump 85% of the time in a district that Trump won by 31 points. There’s a strong set of candidates running on the GOP side. President Trump is pouring tons of money into Minnesota, too, with the goal of flipping the state from blue to red and to bring with him as many House seats as possible. MN-7 is certainly at the top of his ‘flip list’.

Nobody would blame Peterson if he retired. The recent Minnesota Poll shows Trump trailing in the metro (Hennepin and Ramsey counties) but winning in the suburbs quite comfortably:

President Trump’s approval rating in the suburbs looks quite strong. If that’s the case, the GOP congressional candidates in MN-2 and MN-3 should enthusiastically support President Trump’s legislative agenda. If Republicans flip MN-2, MN-3 and MN-7, they’ll retake their majority in the US House. Does Collin Peterson want to return to the minority party again? That’s the $64,000 question.

The DC pundits who’ve been talking about how the votes for ‘moderate’ Democrat presidential candidates outnumber the votes for radical Democrat presidential candidates likely will be surprised by this poll. Hidden deep within the poll is this statistic:

When the Democratic field is reduced to just Sanders and Bloomberg, Sanders holds a 20-point national lead, 57 percent to 37 percent.

The conventional wisdom has been that Elizabeth Warren’s voters would migrate to Bernie and that Joe Biden’s voters would migrate to either Klobuchar or Buttigieg. Apparently, those voters aren’t getting the memo.

Perhaps it’s true that Democrat primary voters realize that there isn’t that big of a difference between Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar and Buttigieg. Stylistically, there’s a little difference but substantively, the difference is quite tiny. This is good news for President Trump, too:

Turning to the general election in November, 47 percent of all registered voters say they approve of Trump’s job performance, up one percentage point from last month and tied for his all-time high in the NBC News/WSJ poll.

By the time the Democrats pick their nominee, President Trump’s GOTV operation will likely be running at full strength. President Trump’s rallies are part of that GOTV effort but it isn’t all of it. President Trump’s rallies serve as a registration drive, too. After each rally, the Trump campaign announces how many registrations happen, what percentage of the registration were former Democrats, what percentage were minorities and what percentage of registrations hadn’t voted in the last presidential election.

President Trump’s message resonates with people. Bernie’s tax hikes galore won’t resonate outside his base. Bloomberg’s $5,000,000,000,000 tax hike will frighten people. You can’t turn out people who reject your message.

Based on Fox’s reporting and this article, the Senate trial of President Trump’s impeachment is almost over. Wednesday’s questions opened with a question from Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Mitt Romney to President Trump’s legal team.

Before that, though, Mitch McConnell met with Sen. Murkowski “for about 20 to 30 minutes. That was seen as a sign by several senators that Democrats will fail to convince four Republicans to join them in calling for witnesses. Without a vote to hear from witnesses, the trial could end as soon as Friday.”

After their meeting, the mood in the GOP Conference was improved:

“We’re going to get it done by Friday, hopefully,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said following the meeting. Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), emerging from the lunch, said, “I think I can say the mood is good.” Braun expressed confidence that McConnell will be able to keep his conference unified enough to defeat a motion to consider subpoenas for additional witnesses and documents.

Sean Hannity isn’t a great interviewer but he’s been right about the various Trump administration investigations. I take him seriously when he says that the trial is almost over, which he did in his opening monologue Wednesday night:

If Sen. Romney votes to convict President Trump, he’ll instantly become a pariah in Utah. It’s almost guaranteed that he’d get primaried, too. After seeing Matt Towery’s poll results, Mitt would be wise to think twice about rejecting President Trump.

Towery asked 400 registered voters in Utah these questions:

  1. How would you like your 2 senators to vote in the trial? Vote to acquit President Trump: 68%
  2. Do you support or oppose calling additional witnesses? Oppose 64%
  3. More or less likely to support Romney re-election if he votes for witnesses? Less likely 60%

At this point, I can’t picture an outcome were more than 49 senators vote for additional witnesses. If the vote comes out 51-49 in President Trump’s favor, this will become a non-factor in the 2020 senatorial elections. Impeachment just isn’t that important to the people.

News like this will certainly give Democrats heartburn. Speaker Pelosi is justified in worrying about this election cycle. This is terrible news for Democrats:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters agree with Trump’s statement in a letter to the U.S. House of Representatives before the vote: “This impeachment represents an unprecedented and unconstitutional abuse of power by Democrat lawmakers unequaled in nearly two-and-a-half centuries of American legislative history.”

With a microscopic-length list of accomplishments and a reputation of unjust investigations, not legislation, Democrats won’t get the benefit of the doubt on whether they should be given the opportunity to govern. That’s especially true when multiple Democrats have said that they’d continue impeaching President Trump if he’s re-elected.

With 2020 likely to be spent campaigning, there’s virtually no chance that the Democrats’ list of accomplishments will grow. What they have now will be what they have when Election Day arrives. A congress that abuses its authority while ignoring its responsibilities to We The People is derelict in its duties.

Democrats are treating impeachment is being treated like it happens daily. That isn’t acceptable. Impeachment is the political equivalent of the death penalty. For 3 years, Democrats have tormented President Trump daily while he’s tried accomplishing things on the people’s behalf. It won’t take a genius to highlight the difference between President Trump’s attempts to work on the people’s behalf and the Democrats’ attempts to resist President Trump’s positive initiatives. This is what happens to Democrats who try impeaching President Trump with hearsay testimony:
It isn’t pretty.