Archive for the ‘Polling’ Category

It’s easy to see that the Democrats’ impeachment hearings have pushed the 2020 presidential campaign into a higher gear. While I’d be wrong to call it full speed, I wouldn’t be wrong in saying that it’s sped up more than a notch or two. Lots of information is accumulating just begging to be deciphered.

First, there’s the effect that impeachment is having on shaping the election. For that, I turn to FNC’s Liz Peek, who writes “Newsflash: Rep. Adam Schiff is dithering over impeachment! On CNN’s ‘State of the Union’ Sunday, the House Intelligence Committee chairman claimed that grounds for impeaching President Trump are ‘not contested’ but also said he wants to ‘discuss this with my constituents and colleagues before I make a final judgment on this.'”

Whoa! That’s like watching Moses part the Red Sea, then decide that 400 additional years of slavery in Egypt sounded ok. It isn’t that impeachment went well for Democrats. It didn’t. It’s that Schiff saw things that weren’t there.

The thing is that the impeachment train left the station when Pelosi announced the inquiry. It picked up steam when 232 Democrats voted for the inquiry. By now, the train that left DC is likely heading through Kentucky or parts west. The Lunatic Left demands an impeachment vote and they’re gonna get it or they’ll stop writing checks to the Democrats’ congressional candidates.

Displeasure with the impeachment push is also showing up in the polls. While early surveys indicated widespread support for the investigation into Trump’s commerce with Ukraine, the tables have turned. A recent Emerson poll shows 45 percent of voters oppose the impeachment push while 43 percent support; a month earlier 48 percent supported impeachment and 44 percent were against it. Perhaps more significant for Democrats hoping to regain the White House in 2020, support among independents has nosedived. Some 34 percent approve of the push today, down from 48 percent in October.

The Emerson poll is not an outlier. An NPR/Marist poll also shows support for impeachment dropping over the past month and, even worse for the showboating Schiff, interest in the proceedings waning. Only 30 percent of the nation saying they were following the proceedings “very closely,” down from 37 percent in September. Adding insult to injury, Trump’s approval rating has actually gone up, not down, over the past month. And, the stock market keeps hitting new highs.

Then there’s this:

According to two new polls, Trump has now gained popularity with African-Americans— and the numbers are significant, even “bigly.” Both polls—Rasmussen, which usually tilts Republican, and Emerson, which is considered even-handed—came out almost exactly the same, putting Trump’s support among blacks at a surprising, almost astonishing, 34 percent. Typically, Republicans poll in single digits among blacks.

Check this out:

If President Trump gets 15%-20% of the African-American vote, Democrats would be looking at an historic bloodbath next November. It’s still a long ways from Election Day but the warning signs are accumulating. The bad news for Democrats is that they aren’t heading in the right direction.

Finally, the fundraising totals continue heading in the GOP’s favor. With the DNC essentially bankrupt, Pelosi, Perez and Schiff shouldn’t feel too confident.

According to this article by David Ignatius, last week’s “testimony was damaging to the president.” The next sentence from Ignatius’ article says it all:

But the Wisconsin survey showed modest but nonetheless perceptible shifts in the direction favoring Trump, on the question of whether he should be impeached and also in head-to-head matchups against leading Democratic presidential candidates. What makes the Wisconsin poll important is that it is a snapshot of a state that, more than any other in the country, could decide the 2020 election.

The obvious question is simple. If the testimony was damaging to President Trump, why is he in better shape today than he was before impeachment was initiated? It’s impossible, obviously, to hurt a candidate while he’s rising in the polling.

This is what inside-the-Beltway thinking looks like. David Ignatius is a smart guy. Still, he’s trapped thinking like others trapped inside the Beltway.

The Marquette poll found 40 percent of registered voters favoring impeachment of Trump and his removal from office, compared with 44 percent in October. At the same time, 53 percent oppose impeachment and removal, compared with 51 percent the previous month. Statistically these are tiny-to-insignificant shifts, but the direction of the changes on this and other questions are consistent.

This isn’t insignificant when put into perspective. The net negative on impeachment is what’s required. In October, impeach-and-remove was a net negative of -7. In November, impeach-and-remove was a net negative of -13. That’s heading in the right direction for the Trump campaign:

The results from Wisconsin also showed that, since the summer, the Democratic candidates have seen clear slippage in their support in hypothetical matchups with the president. Former vice president Joe Biden led the president by 51 percent to 42 percent in August. By October the margin was 50 percent to 44 percent. The latest poll flips the script. Trump now is ahead of Biden by 47 percent to 44 percent. The shift came primarily from movement among independents, either away from the former vice president to Trump or to a posture of saying they liked neither candidate.

If last week’s testimony was damaging to the president, shouldn’t that equate to bigger leads for Democrat presidential candidates? Isn’t this proof that the testimony wasn’t as damaging as the Beltway thinks it was? This is interesting:

Trump’s current approval rating in the state, according to the Marquette poll, is 47 percent, higher than his national number and about the same as it was in the poll in October. Republicans are more unified behind him today than they were when he first ran for president.

If Democrats can’t flip Wisconsin back to the blue column, there’s virtually no chance of them retaking the White House. Democrats would have to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania and another Trump state to win. Trump won with 306 electoral votes. Michigan and Pennsylvania equal 26 electoral votes. Wisconsin adds another 10 electoral votes. Even if Trump lost the so-called blue firewall, he’s still at 270, the winning number. The Democrat nominee would need to flip yet another red state while holding New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota and New Hampshire.

I can’t picture Democrats re-flipping the Blue Firewall while keeping the previous list of states. It’s possible. It just isn’t likely. When the votes are counted on Election Night, President Trump will still be President Trump.

Despite a topsy-turvy day on Capitol Hill, President Trump still has plenty to smile about. President Trump should smile at Marquette University’s latest presidential polling. The highlight of Marquette’s poll is that President Trump leads each of the top 4 Democrats in the race:

President Trump leads the top Democrats in the battleground state of Wisconsin. In October, Trump trailed Biden, Sanders and Warren by 6, 2 and 1 points respectively while leading Buttigieg by just 2 points. This month, after the public impeachment has started, Trump leads Biden, Sanders and Warren by 3, 3 and 5 points respectively. Meanwhile, Trump leads Buttigieg by 8 points.

It’s interesting to see President Trump taking the lead over the top 4 contenders while Democrats pursue impeachment. The ratings kinda tell the tale on that. The first day of testimony attracted 13,800,000 viewers. The second day of testimony attracted 12,700,000 viewers. The third day attracted 11,400,000 viewers. It’s apparent that the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry is backfiring.

Despite all of the MSM headlines that talk about bombshell testimony and Republicans in despair, the people are sending a different message. While House Democrats are working themselves into a lather, the people are tuning out. Again, the Democrats have overpromised and underdelivered. With impeachment sucking all the oxygen out of the presidential campaign and with President Trump frequently holding rallies across the nation, it isn’t surprising that President Trump is gaining momentum.

Once the RNC ground game kicks into high gear, which it will, this race will turn. President Trump has a lengthy list of accomplishments that will appeal to independent voters. Democrats have earned the title of Do-Nothing Democrats.

There’s an old saying in football and track. It says “If he’s even, he’s leaving.’ Right now, the Trump campaign is even. With the Trump/RNC cash advantage, a lengthy list of accomplishments and a weak opponent, President Trump won’t be even much longer.

Republicans, led by Andy Biggs, the new chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, have gone on the offensive against the Democrats’ weakest link, aka Adam Schiff. Schiff’s tactics have been unfair, unconstitutional and totally partisan. If the goal of this impeachment process is to win people over and hold them there, it’s failing.

Newt Gingrich knows a thing or two about impeachment. He said “Schiff is an embarrassingly dishonest person. Pelosi has become an embarrassingly dishonest person.” He’s right, albeit a bit gentle. He said that to Fox & Friends. When he appeared on Outnumbered, Newt said “I think he’s lost his mind”, which is true, though not in the clinical sense.

Schiff isn’t interested in being fair. Further, his statements are further out there than Hillary’s latest statements. Hillary’s statements about Tulsi Gabbard are out there beyond the edge of the solar system. Schiff’s statements are out there beyond the edge of the galaxy.

This information should frighten Democrats:

In the six closest states carried by the president in 2016, registered voters support the impeachment inquiry by a five-point margin, 50 percent to 45 percent. The same voters oppose impeaching Mr. Trump and removing him from office, 53 percent to 43 percent.

In other words, Democrats are pushing something that’s underwater in the polls. Support for an impeachment inquiry isn’t that popular. Support for impeaching and removing President Trump is far less popular. If Pelosi and Schiff push forward on impeachment and removal, 2 things can’t be avoided. First, those vulnerable freshman Democrats will have to vote for impeachment for it to pass. Their other option is voting against impeachment, which hangs out their far leftist Democrats to dry.

This isn’t good news for Democrats either:

An NBC/WSJ poll, for instance, found that adults opposed impeachment and removal by a six-point margin, 49 percent to 43 percent, nearly the reverse of Fox’s result of 51 percent supporting and 43 percent opposed. Other surveys, from Marist College, Quinnipiac, CNN/SSRS and Monmouth College, also found more opposition than support for impeachment and removal. The Times/Siena results are fairly consistent with those surveys.

Any issue that consistently polls at 43% isn’t an issue I’d spend more than a few seconds on. That being said, I hope Democrats spend the next month on this. While Democrats are holding impeachment hearings in private, then leaking partial transcripts to the press, they’re reinforcing their image of being the Swamp. Meanwhile, President Trump can hold weekly rallies to tell 25,000+ people at each event that he’s still fighting for them but these Do-Nothing Democrats keep holding these hearings instead of working with him on fixing immigration or making his tax cuts permanent or doing other things.

Don’t be surprised if, a year from now, people say that they prefer a president who wants to fix things over Democrats who want to spend all of their time investigating things. Do-Nothing Democrats isn’t just a talking point. It’s the truth. This truth, though, won’t set Democrats free.

It’s pretty clear that Keith Ellison knows a thing or two about being slippery. With a week left before Election Day, Keith Ellison is still attempting to slip away from Karen Monahan’s accusations.

It’s fun reading that “Keith Ellison stood in front of reporters this week desperate to redefine the attorney general’s race as his poll numbers slide. The Democratic congressman’s campaign has been overshadowed for the two months since his ex-girlfriend accused him of physical and emotional abuse.” As the candidate with near universal name recognition, he’s fighting a difficult problem:

Ellison has denied the allegations, but the damage was done. Once leading Republican opponent Doug Wardlow in polls, Ellison trails by 7 percentage points in the most recent Minneapolis Star Tribune/MPR News survey. Still, Ellison has hope: the same poll shows 16 percent of voters say they’re not sure who they’ll choose. So there he was Thursday in the basement conference room at the state Capitol, imploring voters to examine Wardlow’s record instead of his own troubles.

Ellison doesn’t have much hope. Most undecideds break away from well-known candidates. If they know who you are but are still undecided, that isn’t a vote of confidence. That’s a sign that voters aren’t satisfied with their options.

Here’s mathematical proof that Ellison is in trouble. Let’s suppose that 1,000 likely voters were polled. If Ellison is getting 36% of the vote, then convinced 2/3rds of undecideds to vote him, which is highly unlikely, Ellison would finish with 467 votes. Wardlow is getting 43% of the vote. If he convinced 33% of the undecideds to vote for him, he’d finish with 483 votes.

The reality is that Ellison isn’t likely to win 67% of undecideds. He’ll be lucky to convince 50% of undecideds to vote for him. If Ellison and Wardlow each won half of the undecideds, Wardlow would finish with 51% of the final vote. Frankly, Ellison’s support of Assata Shakur should disqualify him from being Minnesota’s Attorney General:

Then, too, so should Ellison’s statement that he wouldn’t uphold Minnesota laws he doesn’t like. It’s time to end Keith Ellison’s political career.

John Sununu Sr.’s perspective definitely doesn’t match with the MSM’s. Just watch this interview with Bill O’Reilly and you’ll know what I mean:

I was particularly fascinated when they got to the subjects of Kavanaugh and the “migrant march.” Check out Sununu’s perspective. He said that Kavanaugh will affect the hard-cord Republican voter who was going to vote Republican. Then Sununu said that the migrant march “is going to affect the marginal Republican and the independents. Those are the ones that the surprise data has a majority talking about how they want this march stopped. So those 2 things affect the Republican vote but with 2 different groups of voters.”

I think that’s exactly right. That’s why I think the polling is missing what’s happening. It’s my theory that pollsters have misinterpreted suburban white women in a significant way. Every night, I hear how Democrats are leading with women, which I don’t doubt. That being said, I’m highly skeptical of the theory that suburban white women don’t worry about immigration.

They’re smart enough to know that those illegal immigrants pile tons of extra costs on them by piling tons of additional expenses on school districts and safety net programs.

The other thing that Gov. Sununu said that makes sense is that he disputes the notion that the union worker who’s voted Democrat “all his life except in 2016” will vote Democrat in 2018. Gov. Sununu thinks that Trump’s economy has earned him tons of good will with union workers. I wholeheartedly agree. Here in Minnesota, the DFL doesn’t have much of a chance of winning back the private sector unions anytime soon. That’s why Pete Stauber will handily win in the Eighth District.

This NYTimes article highlights in detail the difficulty Keith Ellison finds himself in.

It states “But in recent weeks, Mr. Wardlow has received one of the biggest political gifts of the midterm election cycle, in large part because of his opponent’s fall from grace, after Mr. Ellison’s former girlfriend said that he mistreated her. The charges, which Mr. Ellison denies, have snapped voters to attention across the state. The race has shifted dramatically in Mr. Wardlow’s favor. Last month, Mr. Ellison had a five-point lead among likely voters, according to a Star Tribune/Minnesota Public Radio News poll. But the numbers have more than flipped: Mr. Wardlow has taken a seven-point lead, according to the group’s new poll taken last week.”

Clearly, Ellison’s trend-line is working against him. That’s the least bad news for Ellison. When I wrote this post, I noted this:

Voters in Hennepin and Ramsey counties preferred Ellison in the new poll, but Wardlow was ahead in every other part of the state. Wardlow’s support also grew among voters aged 18 to 34. That age group went for Ellison by a wide margin in the September poll, and while he still leads among such voters, the percentage that backed Wardlow more than doubled.

That isn’t the worst of it. Ellison has virtually 100% name recognition. There’s still lots of potential voters who are undecided. If Ellison hasn’t closed the deal with them, he isn’t likely to.

Here’s the big picture view of the race according to the Strib-MPR Poll:

When I looked at the biggest problem facing Keith Ellison according to the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, it was easy getting caught up with the 41%-41% ‘horserace’ figure. That a candidate with virtually no name recognition is tied with a candidate with virtually universal name recognition isn’t exactly commonplace.

That isn’t what caught my attention most, though. Q4 of the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll asks “Minnesota will also elect an Attorney General. If the election for Attorney General were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) “, the poll found that 43% of independents said that they’d vote for Wardlow but just 27% said that they’d vote for Ellison. What’s even more striking is the fact that Ellison finished third, behind Wardlow 43% and Undecided at 27%.

Here’s the horse race graph of the race:

It’s also worth noting that 14% of all voters are undecideds. It isn’t a stretch to think that those voters won’t break for Ellison considering the fact that he’s such a known commodity.

The first time I read the headline to this article, I had to do a doubletake. The headline said “KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll: Ellison, Wardlow in Dead Heat in Attorney General Race.” I could picture it being close but tied? That was further than my imagination could stretch. Then I watched this video:

Democrats have had a vice grip on the office of Minnesota attorney general for 47 years, but the 2018 race for that job is shaping up as the closest in decades. A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows Democrat Keith Ellison and Republican Doug Wardlow deadlocked at 41 percent each. “This is anybody’s race,” said political scientist Steven Schier. “Ellison is vulnerable in a way other Democrats are not.”

When he jumped into the AG’s race, most Minnesota pundits thought it was Ellison’s to lose. If he loses, it’ll be the end of Ellison’s political career. How do you overcome a setback like that? It’s one thing to win over former Republicans. IT’s quite another to win back #MeToo Democrats.

The only thing missing from the headline is the theme song from the Twilight Zone.

I’m semi-stunned with the first polling for the DFL primary in Minnesota’s Eighth District. First, the polling company was “conducted by Victoria Research and Consulting for the Radinovich campaign. The firm, based in Maryland, has worked in Minnesota’s Eighth District since first hired by the late Jim Oberstar in 1992.” Next, “the company interviewed 400 likely DFL primary voters in the Eighth District from May 12-17. Of the five DFLers in the race, Lee had the highest name recognition at 39 percent, while Radinovich was second at 30 percent. Fewer than one-in-four likely primary voters had heard of state Rep. Jason Metsa or North Branch Mayor Kristen Hagen Kennedy.”

That few people had heard of Kristen Hagen-Kennedy isn’t surprising. That few people have heard of Jason Metsa is stunning. He’s a state legislator. He’s been re-elected, too. That isn’t the only bad news for Metsa, though. Here’s more:

The survey considered the candidates support within the district’s two major media markets, Duluth and the Twin Cities. Lee had a clear lead in the Duluth market, with 24 percent support, while Radinovich was second at 18 percent. Metsa finished third with 15 percent support while Kennedy had the backing of just four percent of those polled.

Radinovich holds a clear lead, however, in the southern part of the district, with 17 percent support. Kennedy was in second place at nine percent, while Lee finished third at seven percent. Metsa came in at just two percent support.

In other words, Metsa is tanking outside of his back yard.

Lee represents an interesting dilemma for the DFL. She’s well-known, popular and she opposes copper-nickel mining:

The last thing the DFL needs is for there to be a tough fight between the pro-mining people and the anti-mining activists as their 2 finalists duke it out. That’s what this is shaping up to be at this point. It’s impossible to forget, too, that Leah Phifer won all 10 of the ballots at the DFL CD-8 Convention, though she didn’t win the endorsement. Let’s remember, too, that Rebecca Otto’s only win in the Precinct Caucus straw poll was in CD-8. They might’ve gotten rid of Phifer but they haven’t gotten rid of the environmental activists.

I expect Radinovich to win the primary because there will a significant turnout for the pro-mining Swanson-Nolan gubernatorial ticket in the primary in the Eighth. That shouldn’t be underestimated. However, it wouldn’t be wise to predict a Radinovich victory in November if the Erin-Squared ticket wins the gubernatorial primary. An Erin-Squared victory will likely have a negative effect on turnout in the Eighth District.