Archive for the ‘Polling’ Category

This recent Gallup Poll shows the approval ratings for Republicans and Democrats heading in the opposite directions. According to Megan Brenan, the “rating for Republicans in Congress has risen six percentage points since late October, before the impeachment of President Donald Trump in the U.S. House of Representatives. Over the same period, congressional Democrats’ approval rating has edged down three points and disapproval has climbed five points, from 57% to 62%.”

Brenan later highlights the finding as “Although majorities of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, as well as Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, approve of the job their own party’s members of Congress are doing, there is a significant difference between the two groups. Republicans’ approval of congressional Republicans has jumped 13 points to 76% since October, but Democrats’ 65% approval of congressional Democrats is virtually unchanged from October.”

This is interesting, too:

Just as the public’s assessments of congressional Republicans appear to have benefited from Trump’s impeachment, so too has Trump. In January and February, the president’s job approval rating rose to his personal best of 49%; it remains elevated from where it was before his impeachment. Likewise, Trump’s favorability rating, which was 41% in October, reached 48% in January and is currently 46%, including 89% favorable among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

The Republican who should be most worried by this poll is Mitt Romney:

Utah Sen. Mitt Romney was the sole Republican to break with his party and vote to convict Trump on one of the two charges in the Senate impeachment trial. Although Romney’s 39% favorability among U.S. adults is unchanged from a year ago, he is currently viewed more favorably among Democrats than he is among Republicans, a reversal of previous readings. A 56% majority of Democrats but just 23% of Republicans now hold favorable views of Romney.

Utah is a caucus state so whether Utah Republicans approve of him matters. It was only a few years ago that Utah Republicans threw out Sen. Bennett and replaced him with Mike Lee. Republicans disliked Bennett so bad that he didn’t get enough support to get on the primary ballot.

With Super Tuesday literally just days away, the question that all of the pundits are asking is whether Joe Biden will get a bounce from his victory Saturday night. A quick scan of the RCP average of polls for Super Tuesday primaries shows Bernie Sanders with leads in most of the states, including delegate-rich Texas and California. Sen. Sanders also leads in Virginia and Massachusetts. The RCP average shows Sen. Sanders running away with Colorado and Utah.

If things go well for Sanders on Tuesday night, he’ll be in a dominant position to win the Democrats’ presidential nomination. That’s what I’m expecting. Further, I’m expecting Biden to do just well enough to continue but not well enough to contend. I expect Klobuchar, Warren and Buttigieg to drop out of the race, with Klobuchar having the best shot at doing well enough to stay in the race.

California will send a harsh signal to the Democrats. Here’s why:

There’s an outside possibility that Sanders will be the only candidate who will win California delegates. If that’s what happens, Sanders will be virtually unstoppable. Sanders also leads in Texas:

This doesn’t sound like the type of performance Biden and the Democrats’ Establishment needs. If things go according to the RCP average in each of these states, Bernie will be the prohibitive favorite to be the Democrats’ nominee. After that, expect to hear about lots of article with ideas on how to steal the nomination from Bernie.

Based on his actions, it’s more than fair to question Collin Peterson’s loyalty to Nancy Pelosi. In this post, I wrote that Pelosi had disrespected Peterson, omitting him from the USMCA press conference. In December, Peterson said that he hadn’t decided whether he’d run or retire but that he’d make up his mind “in January or February.” Today is Feb. 25 so there isn’t much time to make a decision. This tweet might tell us what he’s going to do:


“I’m not sure I want to win.” Let that sink in a bit. Think about whether Collin Peterson would want to be part of the minority party again. Think about whether Collin Peterson would want to have to deal with AOC + 3. (I think that’s his worst nightmare but I might be wrong.)

Personally, I question whether Peterson could win. He isn’t the perfect match for the District that he used to be. Peterson’s voted against President Trump 85% of the time in a district that Trump won by 31 points. There’s a strong set of candidates running on the GOP side. President Trump is pouring tons of money into Minnesota, too, with the goal of flipping the state from blue to red and to bring with him as many House seats as possible. MN-7 is certainly at the top of his ‘flip list’.

Nobody would blame Peterson if he retired. The recent Minnesota Poll shows Trump trailing in the metro (Hennepin and Ramsey counties) but winning in the suburbs quite comfortably:

President Trump’s approval rating in the suburbs looks quite strong. If that’s the case, the GOP congressional candidates in MN-2 and MN-3 should enthusiastically support President Trump’s legislative agenda. If Republicans flip MN-2, MN-3 and MN-7, they’ll retake their majority in the US House. Does Collin Peterson want to return to the minority party again? That’s the $64,000 question.

The DC pundits who’ve been talking about how the votes for ‘moderate’ Democrat presidential candidates outnumber the votes for radical Democrat presidential candidates likely will be surprised by this poll. Hidden deep within the poll is this statistic:

When the Democratic field is reduced to just Sanders and Bloomberg, Sanders holds a 20-point national lead, 57 percent to 37 percent.

The conventional wisdom has been that Elizabeth Warren’s voters would migrate to Bernie and that Joe Biden’s voters would migrate to either Klobuchar or Buttigieg. Apparently, those voters aren’t getting the memo.

Perhaps it’s true that Democrat primary voters realize that there isn’t that big of a difference between Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar and Buttigieg. Stylistically, there’s a little difference but substantively, the difference is quite tiny. This is good news for President Trump, too:

Turning to the general election in November, 47 percent of all registered voters say they approve of Trump’s job performance, up one percentage point from last month and tied for his all-time high in the NBC News/WSJ poll.

By the time the Democrats pick their nominee, President Trump’s GOTV operation will likely be running at full strength. President Trump’s rallies are part of that GOTV effort but it isn’t all of it. President Trump’s rallies serve as a registration drive, too. After each rally, the Trump campaign announces how many registrations happen, what percentage of the registration were former Democrats, what percentage were minorities and what percentage of registrations hadn’t voted in the last presidential election.

President Trump’s message resonates with people. Bernie’s tax hikes galore won’t resonate outside his base. Bloomberg’s $5,000,000,000,000 tax hike will frighten people. You can’t turn out people who reject your message.

Based on Fox’s reporting and this article, the Senate trial of President Trump’s impeachment is almost over. Wednesday’s questions opened with a question from Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Mitt Romney to President Trump’s legal team.

Before that, though, Mitch McConnell met with Sen. Murkowski “for about 20 to 30 minutes. That was seen as a sign by several senators that Democrats will fail to convince four Republicans to join them in calling for witnesses. Without a vote to hear from witnesses, the trial could end as soon as Friday.”

After their meeting, the mood in the GOP Conference was improved:

“We’re going to get it done by Friday, hopefully,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said following the meeting. Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), emerging from the lunch, said, “I think I can say the mood is good.” Braun expressed confidence that McConnell will be able to keep his conference unified enough to defeat a motion to consider subpoenas for additional witnesses and documents.

Sean Hannity isn’t a great interviewer but he’s been right about the various Trump administration investigations. I take him seriously when he says that the trial is almost over, which he did in his opening monologue Wednesday night:

If Sen. Romney votes to convict President Trump, he’ll instantly become a pariah in Utah. It’s almost guaranteed that he’d get primaried, too. After seeing Matt Towery’s poll results, Mitt would be wise to think twice about rejecting President Trump.

Towery asked 400 registered voters in Utah these questions:

  1. How would you like your 2 senators to vote in the trial? Vote to acquit President Trump: 68%
  2. Do you support or oppose calling additional witnesses? Oppose 64%
  3. More or less likely to support Romney re-election if he votes for witnesses? Less likely 60%

At this point, I can’t picture an outcome were more than 49 senators vote for additional witnesses. If the vote comes out 51-49 in President Trump’s favor, this will become a non-factor in the 2020 senatorial elections. Impeachment just isn’t that important to the people.

News like this will certainly give Democrats heartburn. Speaker Pelosi is justified in worrying about this election cycle. This is terrible news for Democrats:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters agree with Trump’s statement in a letter to the U.S. House of Representatives before the vote: “This impeachment represents an unprecedented and unconstitutional abuse of power by Democrat lawmakers unequaled in nearly two-and-a-half centuries of American legislative history.”

With a microscopic-length list of accomplishments and a reputation of unjust investigations, not legislation, Democrats won’t get the benefit of the doubt on whether they should be given the opportunity to govern. That’s especially true when multiple Democrats have said that they’d continue impeaching President Trump if he’s re-elected.

With 2020 likely to be spent campaigning, there’s virtually no chance that the Democrats’ list of accomplishments will grow. What they have now will be what they have when Election Day arrives. A congress that abuses its authority while ignoring its responsibilities to We The People is derelict in its duties.

Democrats are treating impeachment is being treated like it happens daily. That isn’t acceptable. Impeachment is the political equivalent of the death penalty. For 3 years, Democrats have tormented President Trump daily while he’s tried accomplishing things on the people’s behalf. It won’t take a genius to highlight the difference between President Trump’s attempts to work on the people’s behalf and the Democrats’ attempts to resist President Trump’s positive initiatives. This is what happens to Democrats who try impeaching President Trump with hearsay testimony:
It isn’t pretty.

Apparently, Democrats are noticing that their impeachment hearings are hurting Democrats more than they’re hurting President Trump. It’s becoming painfully obvious to those willing to see what they actually see.

CNN’s Chris Cillizza just now noticed and wrote about it, saying “Even as the House prepares for the historic vote, however, there’s growing evidence that the public impeachment proceedings in the House against Trump may actually be helping him politically.” Cillizza then continued, saying this:

Take a new Gallup poll released Wednesday morning, which shows two things happening since House Democrats, led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, opened up a formal impeachment inquiry in October regarding Trump’s conduct with Zelensky:

  1. Trump’s job approval rating has gone from 39% to 45%
  2. Support for Trump’s impeachment and removal has dipped from 52% to 46%.

Pelosi’s Democrats have helped President Trump go from a good candidate with great fundraising figures to a total beast whose campaign is just getting started. This isn’t about fact-finding. It’s about the Democrats’ outright hatred of President Trump. Doug Collins, the highest ranking Republican on the House Judiciary Committee, summarized things beautifully during this interview on Fox & Friends:

By contrast, Democrats are flailing during today’s impeachment. Earlier today, Chairman Nadler accused Republican Louie Gohmert of repeating “Russian propaganda”:

The best line of Rep. Gohmert’s presentation was “You send blankets and MREs. They can eat and be warm while the Russians are killing them.” That’s what caused Chairman Nadler to accuse Gohmert of repeating “Russian propaganda.” It’s understandable that Chairman Nadler didn’t like what Mr. Gohmert said. That doesn’t make it Russian propaganda, though. It’s just the truth.

There’s plenty of verification that the Obama administration sent blankets and MREs to Ukraine. This article highlights how the Obama administration ‘helped’:

The package includes $7 million for international relief organizations providing humanitarian aid to civilians impacted by the fighting between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists. Another $46 million will go to assist Ukrainian military and border guards.

~~~~~

U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker will also travel to Ukraine later this month to meet with senior government officials and business leaders to discuss economic reforms there, as well as steps Kiev can take to strengthen its economy and attract private capital.

Those efforts are in addition to $291 million in direct assistance the U.S. has already provided to Ukraine, as well as a $1 billion loan guarantee offered to stabilize its economy.

But the new assistance does not include lethal aid, which leaders in Kiev have long called for in their fight against pro-Russian separatists. Poroshenko renewed that call during a joint address to Congress earlier Thursday, telling lawmakers “one cannot win a war with blankets.”

Democrats, not Republicans, endangered Ukrainian lives. Here’s additional proof that Democrats are flailing:


(H/T: Hot Air) If Democrats have “overwhelming evidence”, they should be willing to hold the trial without additional witnesses. These Democrats aren’t the brightest bulbs in the chandelier.

This USA Today poll proves that the average voter has figured it out. The article itself proves that the MSM hasn’t figured it out.

One of the first results reported shows that “In the poll, sentiments divided along predictable partisan lines. Republicans by an overwhelming 89%-9% oppose a Senate vote that would remove Trump from office; Democrats by 81%-15% support it. Independents by 52%-41% oppose it.” It isn’t exactly predictable that independents oppose impeachment by 11 points.

Later, the poll reports “Men oppose convicting Trump by close to 2-1, 62%-33%. Women by double digits support a conviction, 57%-40%.” It isn’t surprising that there’s a gender gap. What’s surprising is that men oppose President Trump’s conviction by 29 points. That’s a huge gap that favors Republicans bigtime. Despite that, here’s what USA Today says about the gender gaps:

That could signal political turbulence ahead for the GOP, which struggled to hold the support of female voters in last year’s midterm elections.

It isn’t disputable that women abandoned Republicans by a wide margin. This graphic tells the tale, though:

In 2018, Democrats had a 19-point advantage with women while Republicans held a 4-point lead with men. With all due respect to the journalists 4-point gap with men in 2018 vs. a 29-point gap in 2020 is a pretty significant difference. Based on 2018 exit polling and this USA Today polling, 2020 will be nothing like 2018. This paragraph from this article should frighten Democrats:

According to the survey, Trump would beat former Vice-President Joe Biden by three points, Sen. Bernie Sanders by five points, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren by six points.

Additionally, President Trump defeats Bloomberg by 9 points and Buttigieg by 10 points. It’s worth noting that this is a national poll. Prior to this poll, the only polling that showed President Trump ahead were battleground state polls.

That isn’t insignificant because we have a federal election, not a national election. Polling that shows President Trump leading in battleground states are most important. National polling that shows President Trump leading the top 5 Democrats should frighten the daylights out of Democrats. Perhaps this graphic tells the story better:

The people have figured it out that impeachment is just the latest Democrat-led temper tantrum. Democrats should accept the fact that they won’t defeat President Trump and they won’t impeach and convict him, either. That’s the political reality of this situation.

In a bombshell poll from CNN, support for impeachment is dropping — amongst Democrats. That’s a stunning piece of news. What’s more stunning is that Democrat support for impeachment is dropping like a lead balloon:

A CNN poll released Tuesday on the eve of the pivotal vote showed 77% of Democrats now backing impeachment, compared with 90% in the same poll in mid-November.

That’s a 13-point drop in a month. If you look in the dictionary for the definition for cold feet, you’ll find a picture of this polling. That doesn’t mean there will be double-digit defections tomorrow, though.

That isn’t the only grim news for Democrats from that poll. Here’s more bad news from the CNN poll:

Just 38% of Independents and only 7% of Republicans expressed approval in December of the way Congressional Democrats are handling their impeachment quest, comparable to the October results.

If I was a swing-district Democrat running for re-election, I’d be biting my fingernails and ordering a case of Maalox because of this polling. This definitely isn’t good news for Democrats. In fact, I can’t picture this being good news for Democrats in any but the safest districts across the USA.

Pundits have talked endlessly about the 31 Democrats holding seats that Trump won in 2016. This polling tells me that those aren’t the only House Democrats who should be worried.

It’s easy to see that the Democrats’ impeachment hearings have pushed the 2020 presidential campaign into a higher gear. While I’d be wrong to call it full speed, I wouldn’t be wrong in saying that it’s sped up more than a notch or two. Lots of information is accumulating just begging to be deciphered.

First, there’s the effect that impeachment is having on shaping the election. For that, I turn to FNC’s Liz Peek, who writes “Newsflash: Rep. Adam Schiff is dithering over impeachment! On CNN’s ‘State of the Union’ Sunday, the House Intelligence Committee chairman claimed that grounds for impeaching President Trump are ‘not contested’ but also said he wants to ‘discuss this with my constituents and colleagues before I make a final judgment on this.'”

Whoa! That’s like watching Moses part the Red Sea, then decide that 400 additional years of slavery in Egypt sounded ok. It isn’t that impeachment went well for Democrats. It didn’t. It’s that Schiff saw things that weren’t there.

The thing is that the impeachment train left the station when Pelosi announced the inquiry. It picked up steam when 232 Democrats voted for the inquiry. By now, the train that left DC is likely heading through Kentucky or parts west. The Lunatic Left demands an impeachment vote and they’re gonna get it or they’ll stop writing checks to the Democrats’ congressional candidates.

Displeasure with the impeachment push is also showing up in the polls. While early surveys indicated widespread support for the investigation into Trump’s commerce with Ukraine, the tables have turned. A recent Emerson poll shows 45 percent of voters oppose the impeachment push while 43 percent support; a month earlier 48 percent supported impeachment and 44 percent were against it. Perhaps more significant for Democrats hoping to regain the White House in 2020, support among independents has nosedived. Some 34 percent approve of the push today, down from 48 percent in October.

The Emerson poll is not an outlier. An NPR/Marist poll also shows support for impeachment dropping over the past month and, even worse for the showboating Schiff, interest in the proceedings waning. Only 30 percent of the nation saying they were following the proceedings “very closely,” down from 37 percent in September. Adding insult to injury, Trump’s approval rating has actually gone up, not down, over the past month. And, the stock market keeps hitting new highs.

Then there’s this:

According to two new polls, Trump has now gained popularity with African-Americans— and the numbers are significant, even “bigly.” Both polls—Rasmussen, which usually tilts Republican, and Emerson, which is considered even-handed—came out almost exactly the same, putting Trump’s support among blacks at a surprising, almost astonishing, 34 percent. Typically, Republicans poll in single digits among blacks.

Check this out:

If President Trump gets 15%-20% of the African-American vote, Democrats would be looking at an historic bloodbath next November. It’s still a long ways from Election Day but the warning signs are accumulating. The bad news for Democrats is that they aren’t heading in the right direction.

Finally, the fundraising totals continue heading in the GOP’s favor. With the DNC essentially bankrupt, Pelosi, Perez and Schiff shouldn’t feel too confident.