Archive for the ‘Battleground States’ Category

After his Super Tuesday victories, Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden insisted that he was riding a wave of “Joementum.” At the time, Biden was riding wave of momentum. At the time, Biden said “People are talking about a revolution. We started a movement.”

In the final days of this election, virtually no momentum is visible regarding the Biden campaign. Democrats are worried, especially in Florida:

Democrats are concerned about lower enthusiasm among Latino voters in the final days of the 2020 campaign, warning it could cause the party and its presidential nominee Joe Biden to come up short in key states on Election Day.

Latino voters make up large portions of the electorate in a number of crucial states, including two top battlegrounds, Arizona and Florida, as well as Texas, where Biden’s campaign is mounting a late push, and Nevada, where President Donald Trump is seeking to broaden his own map.

That’s what nomentum looks like. I don’t know what these pundits were talking about:

I know what this looks like:


That’s what Trump momentum 2 days out from the election looks like. With a huge anticipated wave of GOP voters expected in the battleground states, things are looking good for Team Trump.

Saying that the Cook Political Report electoral map is warped is understatement. It’s as accurate as the ABC-Washington Post poll that says Joe Biden will win Wisconsin by 17 points. According to Amy Walter’s article, “Less than a week out from Election Day and President Donald Trump is playing catch-up. In 2016, he won 30 states (and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District) and their 306 electoral votes. Today, just 20 states, worth 125 electoral votes, are safely in his column. Former Vice President Joe Biden is holding 24 states worth 290 electoral votes in his column.”

According to Walter, this race is over. I can’t wait to watch her eat a full plate of crow a week from Friday. As much as I disagree with this electoral map, this isn’t what worries me most. This is:

To win the election, Trump will need to win every state we currently have in the Toss Up column: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Maine’s 2nd CD, as well as the newest addition, Texas. Even then, Trump would be 22 electoral votes short of 270.

Texas isn’t a toss-up. Last night, Karl Rove was interviewed by Hannity. Though I don’t trust him on policy, I trust Rove’s understanding of Texas politics. It’s where he grew up. It’s where he still lives. He knows Texas like Newt knows Georgia and Chuck Grassley knows Iowa. Mr. Rove said that Texas is part of the red column, partly because Biden isn’t investing in the state.

It’s worth noting that Dan Crenshaw has worked hard in cultvating minority talent for Republicans. It’s paying off down-ticket. Every 4 years, Democrats promise that this is the year they’ll pull off the Texas upset. This isn’t that year. Again. Republicans need to keep working through Election Day because so much is at stake. We need to re-elect President Trump. Let’s expand our GOP majority in the Senate. Let’s finally retire Nancy Pelosi and retake our majority in the House. Finally, let’s elect lots of new Republicans to state legislatures nationwide.

Let’s make America great again.

Joe Biden’s campaign stops tell us who he’s targeting and who isn’t important to him. Monday, Biden made a hastily-arranged trip into Pennsylvania. It was a short car trip from his home. Tuesday, he’s heading to Atlanta. He’s making a single trip to Iowa, too. In other words, he isn’t visiting Blue Collar America, the sections that President Trump flipped in winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Biden is still fighting to limit the damage of his fracking flip-flop:

“I’m not shutting down oil fields, I’m not eliminating fracking. I’m investing in clean energy and I’m going to make sure that we don’t continue to subsidize the oil companies,” Biden told reporters on Monday as he made a campaign stop in Chester, Pennsylvania, just a short drive from his home in Wilmington, Delaware.

Years ago, Michael Kinsley said that “A gaffe is when a politician tells the truth – some obvious truth he isn’t supposed to say.” This is Joe Biden’s biggest gaffe. Biden is doing his best to limit the damage of his gaffe in the hopes he hasn’t killed his presidential hopes.

Steve Kornacki thinks that President Trump is playing defense this cycle:

In the sense that he’s hoping to hold all of the states he won in 2016, that’s technically true. Then again, all presidents running for re-election are playing a bit of defense. Kornacki thinks that all polls should be averaged together. With that, I vehemently disagree. Many of the media polls have been utterly worthless. I don’t want those junk polls in the mix. I only want polls that’ve figured out how to identify hidden Trump voters. If they haven’t figured that out, then they’re worthless.

Polls that have figured this out are Insider Advantage, Susquehanna and Trafalgar Group. Those polls show President Trump leading. I don’t pay attention to those polls because Trump’s leading. I pay attention because they’ve figured things out.

Joe Biden’s visits indicate that he isn’t trying to win back blue collar workers in battleground states. That’s a major mistake.

Barack Obama will campaign with Joe Biden in an attempt to salvage what little is left of President Obama’s tattered legacy. An aide to the former president told ABC News that “President Obama plans to hit the trail soon, in addition to all the other activities he’s undertaken all year in support of electing VP Biden – as he’s said, we all have to do everything we can to win on November 3.”

It isn’t surprising that President Obama will campaign with Joe Biden. It’s just that President Obama is past his sell-by date. President Obama got fewer votes in 2012 than he got in 2008. That’s the only time in history that a US president got re-elected with fewer votes than for election.

Obama has participated in several fundraisers on behalf of Biden’s campaign and gave a primetime speech during the Democratic National Convention in which he excoriated President Donald Trump over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and extolled Biden’s leadership.

The former president has yet to travel to any of the traditional battleground states to campaign for Biden, mostly due to the greatly reduced in-person footprint the former vice president’s team has stuck to amid the ongoing pandemic.

The only battleground cities where President Obama might be welcome are Detroit, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Frankly, I’m not certain that he’d be welcome in Pittsburgh. Here’s why:

Compare that with this:

President Trump’s message appealed to voters because he preached the gospel of prosperity and restoration. Entire communities are getting rebuilt in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Industries have gotten rebuilt, starting with the energy industry, followed by manufacturing. Remember this?

I’d nickname President Obama Presidential Trash-Talker. I’d nickname President Trump Presidential Miracle Worker. Joe Biden is hoping that blue collar workers will forget the manufacturing jobs that disappeared during the Obama-Biden administration. I’m betting that won’t happen. If Joe Biden isn’t the recipient of divine intervention, the people will re-elect President Trump to another 4-year term in office.

Barack Obama might move the needle a little bit but he won’t move it in enough states. Democrats need to find a new savior. Right now, they don’t have one. They ran 30 (more-or-less) candidates for president. Sleepy Joe was the best of a terrible bunch.

This article highlights today’s campaign from the battleground states. Kamala Harris, the Democrats’ nominee for Joe Biden’s ticket, spent the day in Wisconsin. Biden spent the day in Pennsylvania pretending to be the unions’ friends.

Later, at an AFL-CIO virtual town hall with union President Richard Trumka, Biden called Trump’s alleged remarks about fallen soldiers being “losers” and “suckers” un-American and said Trump would never understand why Americans serve. Trump has denied the remarks. “He’ll never understand you, he’ll never understand us, he’ll never understand our cops, our firefighters, because he’s not made of the same stuff,” Biden said.

That’s the least of Biden’s worries, though. This is a much bigger worry:


What’s happening to Joe Biden? We’ve gotten reports that he’s gone bikeriding in his neighborhood so it isn’t that he’s out of shape. I’m not a doctor so I won’t speculate about what’s happening. Still, honest people have admitted that Vice President Biden isn’t capable of remembering important things.

Even if Biden remembered things, he’d still be at a loss because he isn’t capable of putting the US on the right economic path. Larry Kudlow eviscerates Biden in this interview:

What’s impressive is that President Trump didn’t just preside over a great economy once. The pre-COVID economy was excellent. Then COVID hit, which shut the US economy down for 2 months. When it re-opened, it started creating jobs virtually immediately. When the economy created 2,700,000 jobs in May, the unemployment rate dropped from 14.7% to 13.3%. When the economy created 4,800,000 jobs in June, the unemployment rate dropped to 11.1%. When the economy created 1,800,000 jobs in July, the unemployment rate dropped to 10.2%. When the economy created 1,400,000 jobs in August, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.4%. Since re-opening from COVID, the economy has created 10,600,000 jobs in 4 months.

That’s more jobs created in 4 months than Obama-Biden created in 8 years. Then there’s Kamala Harris fracking flip-flop:

BASH: President Trump, Vice President Pence, they have been campaigning more and more on the issue of fracking, which is a process of oil and gas drilling. They think that this is going to help them win votes in key states like Pennsylvania. Joe Biden has said — quote — “I am not banning fracking.” During your primary campaign, you said that you supported a ban. Are you comfortable with Joe Biden’s position?

HARRIS: Yes, because Joe is saying, listen, one, those are good- paying jobs in places like Pennsylvania, and, two, that we need to also invest and put a significant investment in the good-paying union jobs that we can create around clean energy, around renewable energy. And that is the kind of approach we need to have, but always understanding that it’s a false choice to suggest that we either take care of jobs or we take care of our environment. We can do both, and we should do both.

Here’s the video of Sen. Harris being as dishonest as San Fran Nan about getting hoodwinked by a salon owner:

Other than Joe needing a teleprompter to read his answer to an AFL-CIO question and Sen. Harris’s fracking flip-flop, there was nothing new from the Democrat campaign trail.

The Biden campaign won’t like this CNN news article. That’s because it’s reporting the results of some focus groups from several battleground states. Let’s just say that, despite what the polls say, Joe Biden isn’t in the great shape CNN, MSNBC, the Washington Post and the NYTimes want you to believe.

According to the article, Rich Thau, the man who’s moderated the focus groups, wrote “Pollsters are consistently telling us Democratic nominee Joe Biden is far ahead. I’m not looking to pick a fight, as their sample sizes are much larger than mine. That said, as a focus group moderator, I’m hearing strong support for President Donald Trump from a critical sliver of the electorate.”

Then Thau explains his results:

And, each month for the past 17 months, I’ve had a unique window into the Americans largely responsible for giving the president his slim Electoral College victory: so-called “Obama-Trump” swing voters across the upper Midwest.

Our Swing Voter Project has uncovered that many of these people, who live in places such as Canton, Ohio; Davenport, Iowa; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Macomb County, Michigan, prefer Trump over Biden. In fact, 22 of 33 respondents in these four most recent locations feel this way.

And over the first year of the project, from March 2019 through February 2020, more than two-thirds of the “Obama-Trump” voters said they would take Trump over Obama in a hypothetical match-up.

That isn’t good news for the Biden campaign. This is worse news:

Additionally, many of these voters have yet to hear Biden make his case, and some may still be impacted by the economic and health consequences of the pandemic.

CNN, MSNBC and other media outlets have given Biden a pass on campaigning, often saying that his strategy is working. That’s BS. These media outlets aren’t pushing him on this because they’re fully aware that Biden would turn into a puddle the minute he’s asked hard-hitting questions by legitimate reporters. There’s no way Biden can appear on Special Report or Outnumbered Overtime. Bret Baier and Harris Faulkner would be respectful but they wouldn’t let him off the hook like other networks.

Voters understand that these networks are essentially the Propaganda Wing of the DNC. Voters understand that the networks aren’t serious journalists. Notice that CNN and MSNBC haven’t invited Biden on to discuss his unity agreement. They could announce Biden’s appearance on Morning Joe, then invite people to send in their questions via Twitter and Facebook. There’s a reason they haven’t done that. It’s because Biden’s answers would become material for President Trump’s advertising campaign. It’s because Biden’s words would expose him as a Sanders-AOC leftist.

Now that the people see President Trump’s lengthy list of mainstream accomplishments, they can compare his accomplishments with Obama’s trash-talking and his lengthy list of failures, especially on exporting manufacturing jobs to China, intentionally crippling the fossil fuel industry and decimating small towns throughout the Rust Belt and Great Lakes states.

People in Macomb County, MI, get it that President Trump’s economic agenda was restoring communities and rebuilding the middle class. People living there get it that President Obama and the Democrats shipped their jobs to China and Mexico through NAFTA, high taxes and regulations. Then there’s this problem:

Biden isn’t mentally fit to be president. He’s a smiling face with a history of being a nice guy and a moderate Democrat. He isn’t a moderate Democrat anymore. He sold his soul to the devil, aka Bernie and AOC, to become the nominee. He’s now a captive of the hate- and rage-filled left. Anyone that thinks that Biden can frequently forget where he is but still win over voters in swing states is kidding themselves. Couple that with the fact that he’s promising to end fracking. There goes Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.

I’ve said for a month that Democrats are touting polling because they know their nominee is a feeble-minded old fart who belongs in a nursing home, not in a presidential debate. Democrats hitched their wagon to Biden because he wasn’t as insane as Bernie and some of the other Democrat hopefuls. Rush put it best when he told Chris Wallace months ago that Biden has the best shot of all the Democrats to defeat Trump before saying that Biden doesn’t have a shot.

One thing that’s lost on the MSM about the Trump administration is that they’re great listeners. That’s the first thing that jumps out from Salena Zito’s interview of Vice President Mike Pence. In the article, Ms. Zito writes “The vice president began his daylong trip to various corners of Western Pennsylvania in Wilkinsburg, a predominantly black suburb of Pittsburgh, meeting with the African American pastors and community members at Covenant Church to listen to their experiences with racism and the hardships that have resulted from them.”

Shortly thereafter, she wrote “Pence said the first thing he heard again and again was that just public safety reforms won’t be enough.” Pence said “We have to continue to do what President Trump has done from the very beginning, and that is work to bring jobs, opportunity, educational excellence, school choice, and improved health outcomes to our inner-city communities, especially our African American community.”

The fact that the Vice President of the United States would spend an entire day listening to people in suburban black neighborhoods explodes the myth that the Trump-Pence team sees this as a base election. Clearly, African-Americans weren’t part of President Trump’s base in 2016. That doesn’t mean the Trump-Pence team won’t try to do much better with minorities this election.

“The second thing I heard was the role of faith and the role of the church in healing that which divides in this country,” he explained. “You can’t study the history of abolition in America without seeing the role of the church, the populous that thundered for freeing the slaves that literally made the moral case that led us to the Civil War that led us to ending slavery in this continent.”

This is totally spot-on. Christians are taught that everyone is created “in God’s own image.” The minute that people genuinely see others in that light, the equation changes. There’s now an incentive for being people of integrity. Things change when a person’s first thought is ‘What would Jesus do?’

Pence then departed a few miles down the road toward Sarver, where hundreds of people lined on both sides of the street waving flags and Trump signs as he made his way along North Pike Road for his last stop: an economic event at Oberg Industries.

The vice president was there as part of America First Policies’ “Great American Comeback Tour,” a nationwide policy series reflecting the trade agreement and the payroll tax cut of the Trump administration. He spoke for over half an hour to a crowd of around 100 employees and apprentices spaced 6 feet apart following a panel discussion on the reopening of the economy by local Republican congressmen Mike Kelly, Guy Reschenthaler, and Glenn “G.T.” Thompson.

Vice President Pence travels to Pennsylvania and “hundreds of people lined on both sides of the street waving flags and Trump signs. That’s a turnout that Joe Biden could only wish was possible for his campaign. It’s just more proof that the Trump-Pence campaign has enthusiastic supporters in this important battleground state. If Biden doesn’t win Pennsylvania, he’ll lose. It’s that simple.

Biden’s campaign took a cheap shot at the Pence visit, saying “It’s an insult to Pennsylvanians that Vice President Pence is using Pittsburgh as a prop on the cynically-named ‘Great American Comeback Tour’ — because had the Trump-Pence administration not bungled the response to the coronavirus pandemic so dramatically, there wouldn’t be a need for such an enormous comeback.”

When President Trump put in place the China travel ban, he stopped the spread of the virus from China. Biden’s response to that decision was to call President Trump a racist and accuse him of creating a hysteria. A Biden administration would’ve meant a lethargic response to the pandemic that likely would’ve cost tens of thousands more American lives. That’s the definition of bungling.

Ed Morrissey’s post about where the presidential race is at right now is rather revealing. First, Ed points out that “Republican and Democratic voters overwhelmingly favor their party’s candidate. Trump holds an early advantage in Republican-leaning states, while Biden has an even wider lead in Democratic-leaning states. In battleground states, neither candidate has an advantage (47% prefer Trump, while 45% favor Biden).”

A Trump 47%-45% lead in the battleground states doesn’t sound huge but it’s daunting for Biden. Don’t forget that Trump won the vast majority of battleground states in 2016, including Hillary’s Blue Firewall states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The only battlegrounds that tipped in Hillary’s favor were Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia. Meanwhile, President Trump won Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Then there’s this:

Slightly more than half of white voters say they would vote for Trump (55%), while black and Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly likely to say they would vote for Biden if the election were held today (76% and 63%, respectively).

Here’s Ed’s commentary on that Pew finding:

Ahem. Getting 76% of the African-American vote is not “overwhelming” for a Democratic presidential candidate — it’s disastrous. Biden will need 90% or more of that vote to beat Trump, and he will need an enthusiastic turnout to boot. If Seven Months In The Future Guy (apologies to Gary Cole) showed up tomorrow and told Trump and Brad Parscale that Joe Biden would win 76% of the black vote and 63% of the Hispanic vote, they’d start measuring the Oval Office drapes for Trump’s second term now.

Ed says that those numbers won’t stay static and I agree. Still, if Biden can’t win with large minority turnout and win a high percentage of the minority vote, he’s sunk. That would cost him too many votes in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

I don’t think that Biden can unite Democrats. I don’t think anyone can do that, to be honest. It’s like there’s 2 distinctly different Democrat Parties. One Democrat Party is timidly socialist. The other Democrat Party is unabashedly socialist. That split’s been there for years:

Howard Dean’s stump speech used to say that he represents “the Democrat wing of the Democratic Party.” He was the frontrunner for Iowa for the better part of 6-8 weeks. Articles were written about his ground game and how they knew where each of their voters lived, etc. On the night of the Caucuses, Dean finished third behind John Kerry and John Edwards. Thereafter, Dean’s campaign was chiefly known for “The Scream”:

The animosity between the proudly socialist wing of the Democrat Party and the timidly socialist wing of the Party isn’t legend. It’s real. Plenty of Bernie Bros have already said that they aren’t jumping on the ‘Joe Train’. Still, it’s foolish for Republicans to think Trump’s a lock to win re-election. Republicans should run like they’re a point behind with a month left until Election Day. With that attitude, there won’t be room for complacency.

The Democrats’ dark money groups plan to spend millions of dollars in key battleground states. That isn’t disgusting. That’s just politics. What’s disgusting is that they plan on politicizing the Wuhan virus.

According to the Washington Post, “the group Pacronym is planning to spend $5 million on ads attacking Trump’s response to the pandemic. Pacronym, whose board of directors includes former Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, said its ads will target key 2020 swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona.”

Good luck with that. The next time Democrats complain about dark money or too much money in politics, throw this information in their face:

Pacronym is the political action committee affiliated with Acronym, the non-profit who also funded Shadow, Inc., the company responsible for the failed Iowa caucuses reporting app. Acronym is financed by a larger democratic dark money group, New Venture Fund.

In 2018, the New Venture Fund gave at least $250,000 to Acronym, Acronym’s 2018 990 IRS forms show. New Venture Fund is just one of the dark money nonprofit funds under the umbrella of the for-profit, privately held consultancy called Arabella Advisors, LLC.

It isn’t just that Democrats don’t hate money in politics. It’s that Democrats have put together networks of dark money organizations to propagandize the people. It’s proof that Democrats can’t live without dark money in politics.

Another Democratic PAC called American Bridge said they will also be running similar ads politicizing the pandemic in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. American Bridge told the Washington Post it would be placing an additional ad on “Trump’s incompetence,” including “clips of Trump himself downplaying the crisis.”

If that’s what Democrats want to do, fine. Let’s throw this back in the Democrats’ faces:

In that press availability, Biden said that the Chinese “are not bad folks, folks.” Let’s remind people in Michigan, Pennsylvania and other Rust Belt battleground states and see how Biden’s own words on China play, especially in light of China’s hiding the Coronavirus Crisis for almost 3 months. How do you think that’ll play with an out-of-work steel mill worker? How will that work with an out-of-work UAW worker in Ohio or Detroit?

David Plouffe is a talented political guy but he doesn’t have a clue about Trump’s Rust Belt battleground states. If Democrats want to politicize the Wuhan Virus, they should expect the Trump campaign to highlight Vice President Biden’s friendliness with China, including his son Hunter’s virtual affair with the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership.

Byron York’s article eliminates the MSM-peddled myth that this will be a base election. There’s little question whether President Trump’s base is fired up. You can’t read this information and reach another conclusion:

Trump won the Texas primary with 94.1% of the vote. In 2004, the last time an incumbent Republican president ran for reelection, George W. Bush, a former Texas governor, won the Texas primary with 92.5% of the vote. This year, Trump won with 1,889,006 votes out of 2,007,314 Republican votes cast. Democrat Joe Biden won Texas with 716,030 votes out of 2,075,862 Democratic votes cast.

Republicans didn’t have a competitive primary to drive turnout. Democrats had a huge primary to drive turnout. Despite that, Trump outdistanced Democrats. This information should put to rest this silliness that Democrats will flip Texas this year. That isn’t happening.

The story was similar in other states. In Alabama, Trump won the Republican primary with 96.2% of the vote. In 2004, Bush won the Alabama primary with 92.8% of the vote. This year, Trump won with 695,469 votes out of 722,809 Republican votes cast. Biden won with 286,065 votes out of 452,278 Democratic votes cast.

I could continue with other ruby-red states but you get the picture. This lets the Trump campaign focus their resources and attention on battleground states. While Democrats fight with each other, Republicans focus on maximizing their victory. This paragraph says everything:

“There is unprecedented support and enthusiasm for President Trump in the Republican Party, and supporters are turning out in state primaries because they just can’t wait to get involved in the process that will end with his re-election,” said campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh in an email exchange. “The president has inspired record turnout and record vote totals, but it’s not just Republicans who are fired up. Our data shows that a quarter of people who register for the president’s rallies are independents or Democrats. The president has unified Republicans, but he’s also attracting new voters to his side as well.”

Republicans have the opportunity to do something special this year. Republicans should work their buns off so they strengthen their Senate majority and recapture their House majority while re-electing President Trump for 4 more years. If Republicans can pull off that trifecta, the nation will be in incredibly strong shape for the next 4 years.

This is a fitting conclusion:

Kristol told NPR he thought it was “unlikely” that Trump could be defeated in the primaries. Still, NPR reported, the Never Trumpers’ “secondary goal” is to “bruise Trump enough to hurt his chances come November 2020.”

Bill Kristol is a petty, bitter man. He, Steve Hayes and George Will should move to Bloomberg Island, aka, American Samoa, and leave the rest of us alone.