Archive for the ‘Battleground States’ Category

One thing that’s lost on the MSM about the Trump administration is that they’re great listeners. That’s the first thing that jumps out from Salena Zito’s interview of Vice President Mike Pence. In the article, Ms. Zito writes “The vice president began his daylong trip to various corners of Western Pennsylvania in Wilkinsburg, a predominantly black suburb of Pittsburgh, meeting with the African American pastors and community members at Covenant Church to listen to their experiences with racism and the hardships that have resulted from them.”

Shortly thereafter, she wrote “Pence said the first thing he heard again and again was that just public safety reforms won’t be enough.” Pence said “We have to continue to do what President Trump has done from the very beginning, and that is work to bring jobs, opportunity, educational excellence, school choice, and improved health outcomes to our inner-city communities, especially our African American community.”

The fact that the Vice President of the United States would spend an entire day listening to people in suburban black neighborhoods explodes the myth that the Trump-Pence team sees this as a base election. Clearly, African-Americans weren’t part of President Trump’s base in 2016. That doesn’t mean the Trump-Pence team won’t try to do much better with minorities this election.

“The second thing I heard was the role of faith and the role of the church in healing that which divides in this country,” he explained. “You can’t study the history of abolition in America without seeing the role of the church, the populous that thundered for freeing the slaves that literally made the moral case that led us to the Civil War that led us to ending slavery in this continent.”

This is totally spot-on. Christians are taught that everyone is created “in God’s own image.” The minute that people genuinely see others in that light, the equation changes. There’s now an incentive for being people of integrity. Things change when a person’s first thought is ‘What would Jesus do?’

Pence then departed a few miles down the road toward Sarver, where hundreds of people lined on both sides of the street waving flags and Trump signs as he made his way along North Pike Road for his last stop: an economic event at Oberg Industries.

The vice president was there as part of America First Policies’ “Great American Comeback Tour,” a nationwide policy series reflecting the trade agreement and the payroll tax cut of the Trump administration. He spoke for over half an hour to a crowd of around 100 employees and apprentices spaced 6 feet apart following a panel discussion on the reopening of the economy by local Republican congressmen Mike Kelly, Guy Reschenthaler, and Glenn “G.T.” Thompson.

Vice President Pence travels to Pennsylvania and “hundreds of people lined on both sides of the street waving flags and Trump signs. That’s a turnout that Joe Biden could only wish was possible for his campaign. It’s just more proof that the Trump-Pence campaign has enthusiastic supporters in this important battleground state. If Biden doesn’t win Pennsylvania, he’ll lose. It’s that simple.

Biden’s campaign took a cheap shot at the Pence visit, saying “It’s an insult to Pennsylvanians that Vice President Pence is using Pittsburgh as a prop on the cynically-named ‘Great American Comeback Tour’ — because had the Trump-Pence administration not bungled the response to the coronavirus pandemic so dramatically, there wouldn’t be a need for such an enormous comeback.”

When President Trump put in place the China travel ban, he stopped the spread of the virus from China. Biden’s response to that decision was to call President Trump a racist and accuse him of creating a hysteria. A Biden administration would’ve meant a lethargic response to the pandemic that likely would’ve cost tens of thousands more American lives. That’s the definition of bungling.

Ed Morrissey’s post about where the presidential race is at right now is rather revealing. First, Ed points out that “Republican and Democratic voters overwhelmingly favor their party’s candidate. Trump holds an early advantage in Republican-leaning states, while Biden has an even wider lead in Democratic-leaning states. In battleground states, neither candidate has an advantage (47% prefer Trump, while 45% favor Biden).”

A Trump 47%-45% lead in the battleground states doesn’t sound huge but it’s daunting for Biden. Don’t forget that Trump won the vast majority of battleground states in 2016, including Hillary’s Blue Firewall states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The only battlegrounds that tipped in Hillary’s favor were Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia. Meanwhile, President Trump won Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Then there’s this:

Slightly more than half of white voters say they would vote for Trump (55%), while black and Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly likely to say they would vote for Biden if the election were held today (76% and 63%, respectively).

Here’s Ed’s commentary on that Pew finding:

Ahem. Getting 76% of the African-American vote is not “overwhelming” for a Democratic presidential candidate — it’s disastrous. Biden will need 90% or more of that vote to beat Trump, and he will need an enthusiastic turnout to boot. If Seven Months In The Future Guy (apologies to Gary Cole) showed up tomorrow and told Trump and Brad Parscale that Joe Biden would win 76% of the black vote and 63% of the Hispanic vote, they’d start measuring the Oval Office drapes for Trump’s second term now.

Ed says that those numbers won’t stay static and I agree. Still, if Biden can’t win with large minority turnout and win a high percentage of the minority vote, he’s sunk. That would cost him too many votes in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

I don’t think that Biden can unite Democrats. I don’t think anyone can do that, to be honest. It’s like there’s 2 distinctly different Democrat Parties. One Democrat Party is timidly socialist. The other Democrat Party is unabashedly socialist. That split’s been there for years:

Howard Dean’s stump speech used to say that he represents “the Democrat wing of the Democratic Party.” He was the frontrunner for Iowa for the better part of 6-8 weeks. Articles were written about his ground game and how they knew where each of their voters lived, etc. On the night of the Caucuses, Dean finished third behind John Kerry and John Edwards. Thereafter, Dean’s campaign was chiefly known for “The Scream”:

The animosity between the proudly socialist wing of the Democrat Party and the timidly socialist wing of the Party isn’t legend. It’s real. Plenty of Bernie Bros have already said that they aren’t jumping on the ‘Joe Train’. Still, it’s foolish for Republicans to think Trump’s a lock to win re-election. Republicans should run like they’re a point behind with a month left until Election Day. With that attitude, there won’t be room for complacency.

The Democrats’ dark money groups plan to spend millions of dollars in key battleground states. That isn’t disgusting. That’s just politics. What’s disgusting is that they plan on politicizing the Wuhan virus.

According to the Washington Post, “the group Pacronym is planning to spend $5 million on ads attacking Trump’s response to the pandemic. Pacronym, whose board of directors includes former Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, said its ads will target key 2020 swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona.”

Good luck with that. The next time Democrats complain about dark money or too much money in politics, throw this information in their face:

Pacronym is the political action committee affiliated with Acronym, the non-profit who also funded Shadow, Inc., the company responsible for the failed Iowa caucuses reporting app. Acronym is financed by a larger democratic dark money group, New Venture Fund.

In 2018, the New Venture Fund gave at least $250,000 to Acronym, Acronym’s 2018 990 IRS forms show. New Venture Fund is just one of the dark money nonprofit funds under the umbrella of the for-profit, privately held consultancy called Arabella Advisors, LLC.

It isn’t just that Democrats don’t hate money in politics. It’s that Democrats have put together networks of dark money organizations to propagandize the people. It’s proof that Democrats can’t live without dark money in politics.

Another Democratic PAC called American Bridge said they will also be running similar ads politicizing the pandemic in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. American Bridge told the Washington Post it would be placing an additional ad on “Trump’s incompetence,” including “clips of Trump himself downplaying the crisis.”

If that’s what Democrats want to do, fine. Let’s throw this back in the Democrats’ faces:

In that press availability, Biden said that the Chinese “are not bad folks, folks.” Let’s remind people in Michigan, Pennsylvania and other Rust Belt battleground states and see how Biden’s own words on China play, especially in light of China’s hiding the Coronavirus Crisis for almost 3 months. How do you think that’ll play with an out-of-work steel mill worker? How will that work with an out-of-work UAW worker in Ohio or Detroit?

David Plouffe is a talented political guy but he doesn’t have a clue about Trump’s Rust Belt battleground states. If Democrats want to politicize the Wuhan Virus, they should expect the Trump campaign to highlight Vice President Biden’s friendliness with China, including his son Hunter’s virtual affair with the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership.

Byron York’s article eliminates the MSM-peddled myth that this will be a base election. There’s little question whether President Trump’s base is fired up. You can’t read this information and reach another conclusion:

Trump won the Texas primary with 94.1% of the vote. In 2004, the last time an incumbent Republican president ran for reelection, George W. Bush, a former Texas governor, won the Texas primary with 92.5% of the vote. This year, Trump won with 1,889,006 votes out of 2,007,314 Republican votes cast. Democrat Joe Biden won Texas with 716,030 votes out of 2,075,862 Democratic votes cast.

Republicans didn’t have a competitive primary to drive turnout. Democrats had a huge primary to drive turnout. Despite that, Trump outdistanced Democrats. This information should put to rest this silliness that Democrats will flip Texas this year. That isn’t happening.

The story was similar in other states. In Alabama, Trump won the Republican primary with 96.2% of the vote. In 2004, Bush won the Alabama primary with 92.8% of the vote. This year, Trump won with 695,469 votes out of 722,809 Republican votes cast. Biden won with 286,065 votes out of 452,278 Democratic votes cast.

I could continue with other ruby-red states but you get the picture. This lets the Trump campaign focus their resources and attention on battleground states. While Democrats fight with each other, Republicans focus on maximizing their victory. This paragraph says everything:

“There is unprecedented support and enthusiasm for President Trump in the Republican Party, and supporters are turning out in state primaries because they just can’t wait to get involved in the process that will end with his re-election,” said campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh in an email exchange. “The president has inspired record turnout and record vote totals, but it’s not just Republicans who are fired up. Our data shows that a quarter of people who register for the president’s rallies are independents or Democrats. The president has unified Republicans, but he’s also attracting new voters to his side as well.”

Republicans have the opportunity to do something special this year. Republicans should work their buns off so they strengthen their Senate majority and recapture their House majority while re-electing President Trump for 4 more years. If Republicans can pull off that trifecta, the nation will be in incredibly strong shape for the next 4 years.

This is a fitting conclusion:

Kristol told NPR he thought it was “unlikely” that Trump could be defeated in the primaries. Still, NPR reported, the Never Trumpers’ “secondary goal” is to “bruise Trump enough to hurt his chances come November 2020.”

Bill Kristol is a petty, bitter man. He, Steve Hayes and George Will should move to Bloomberg Island, aka, American Samoa, and leave the rest of us alone.

Everyone is used to President Trump’s ‘rally persona.’ Thursday night, people got to see a different side of President Trump when they got to see President Trump’s townhall persona. This Trump persona was relaxed, confident and informed. When asked about the coronavirus, he had strong command of the latest news. He enumerated then explained the decisions he’d made. He took the opportunity to praise Vice President Pence for the job he’s doing leading the task force and to emphatically state that Pence will be his running mate again in 2020.

When asked about the border wall, President Trump told the questioner that he’d already gotten rid of 129 miles that was easy to get over and replace it with 129 miles of wall that’s 30′ tall and is virtually impossible to climb. President Trump said that he’s building the wall that the border patrol wanted him to build. Trump said the new fencing is virtually impossible to climb.

The third questioner identified himself as David Hines. Mr. Hines identified himself as a Democrat who is the Director of Operations for the City of Pittston. Mr. Hines asked about regulations:

DAVID HINES:Mr. President, welcome back to Scranton. Everyone supports protecting the environment but the EPA seems to focus on complex regulations, fines, fees and lawsuits. What can you do to lead the EPA to focus more on proactive compliance than on punitive enforcement to protect the environment?
PRESIDENT TRUMP: David, I love the question because our EPA is much different. We’re very tough but we get things done and we’re taking regulations off the books like nobody’s ever seen and I say I want to have the cleanest air on the planet. I want to have the cleanest, crystal clear, beautiful water on the planet. The conditions we have now are much cleaner now than they were 3 years ago.

Let’s be clear about President Trump’s performance. He spoke with great specificity. He spoke with a better command of the facts than he speaks with at his rallies. If this President Trump shows up for the presidential debates this fall, he’ll win over the majority of the independents/undecideds.
Here is Part II of the town hall:

Here’s Part III:

You’ll want to watch the closing of the town hall in Part III. The electricity in the room was excellent. I thought President Trump answered the people’s questions directly, which is his style. After the town hall, Byron York joined Martha MacCallum on an abbreviated version of her show. Here’s what York said:

Here he was much more relaxed. And it was interesting to see him defend his administration, certainly on coronavirus and on a number of other issues, said some really interesting things about Obamacare. [Trump] said that he had basically inherited the carcass of Obamacare and would like to kill it altogether if Republicans could somehow come up with something better, which they haven’t been able to do.

Last night’s Trump will be quite the formidable opponent.

Democrats know that winning the White House in 2020 is difficult if they get swept in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. At this point in the campaign, Ohio is pretty much out of the Democrats’ reach so let’s scratch that state off the battleground list. Pennsylvania is still definitely a toss-up state, which brings us to Florida.

Andrew Gillum, the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate, “has played a vocal role in registering voters in Florida through 2019.” Despite that high-profile help in registering voters, “state data shows Republicans in the swing state are far outpacing Democrats when it comes to the raw number of registered voters. Between January and September 2019, the latest month for which data is available, Republicans registered a net 23,084 new voters in the state, compared to 10,731 Democrats, according to the Florida Division of Elections.”

Though those are impressive statistics important to Florida, this is important nationwide:


When Democrats argue, as they did at last week’s debate, that the Trump-GOP economy helps only the 1%, this refutes the Democrats’ lies. Listening to this BS is difficult:

President Trump isn’t just rallying his base. He’s growing that base through one great policy after another. Policies that are lifting African-Americans out of poverty will extend President Trump’s base. The people benefiting from President Trump’s policies know that the stuff Biden is peddling is BS. Without a coherent economic message, the Democrats are sunk, in Florida and elsewhere.

Democrats will undoubtedly spend lots of money trying to win Florida. That’s a losing strategy because of this:


The DNC literally can’t afford to get into a spending fight with the RNC. That’s a losing fight if ever there was one. At this point, the Trump-RNC campaign is hitting on all cylinders. Here’s proof:


Adding 600,000 new small dollar donors equals 600,000 additional GOP voters. Whatever genius thought it smart to impeach President Trump is likely looking for a new job right now. That wasn’t the brightest decision in presidential campaign history.

The Democrats were already fighting an uphill fight to unseat President Trump. That’s thanks to the power of incumbency and a great economy. With Democrats moving even further left and with them impeaching President Trump with just hearsay testimony, Democrats just made that steep hill a little more difficult to climb.

During a week in which House Democrats impeached President Trump, Democrats also all-but-officially signed the political death certificates for their members who represent Trump districts. House Democrats then passed President Trump’s USMCA trade agreement, then passed the bill funding government for FY2020. Included in that bill was funding for President Trump’s wall and a 3.1% pay raise for the military.

After impeaching President Trump but before passing USMCA, Nancy Pelosi decided that she’d make Democrats look utterly unserious. She did that by telling reporters that she wouldn’t send the articles of impeachment to the Senate. She said that despite telling We The People that President Trump had to be impeached and convicted immediately to protect national security and preserve our elections.

While Pelosi impeached President Trump, President Trump held a rally in Michigan. These rallies have been turned into entertainment/pep rallies as well as voter registration drive headquarters. At this week’s rally, 27% of the people who filled out voter registration forms switched from being Democrats. On the subject of voter registration drives, the rally in Sunrise, FL, was a huge success, registering 31,000 people, 30% of which used to be Democrats and 27% are Hispanics.

President Trump’s great week continued when Democrats held a presidential debate in LA. At the debate, the Democrats’ frontrunner was asked a question about energy policy. Here’s Mr. Biden’s reply:

MODERATOR: Would you be willing to sacrifice [economic growth in the energy sector] knowing potentially that it could displace maybe hundreds of thousands of blue-collar workers in the interest of a greener economy?
JOE: The answer is yes.

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were the only Democrats with a shot at winning Pennsylvania and Michigan. That opportunity disappeared when they said that they’d worship at the altar of Climate Change. Climate change and mining fit together like oil and water. If Democrats can’t flip Michigan and Pennsylvania back into the blue column, Democrats can’t win in 2020.

During the impeachment debate and vote, the Trump campaign raised $5,000,000:

President Trump’s re-election campaign raked in $5 million in donations Wednesday, the day the House of Representatives voted to impeach him, his campaign manager said.

“Incredible fundraising numbers!” manager Brad Parscale tweeted. “[Trump] has raised over [$5 million] (still growing) today as Americans use their wallet to show support against Pelosi’s impeachment hoax!” he added.

This isn’t just people supporting a candidate they like. This impeachment has fired up Trump supporters. To them, this is personal now. When independents saw the railroad job being pushed onto President Trump, they reacted.

Next November, the Republicans’ fantastic week will come to fruition.

This USA Today poll proves that the average voter has figured it out. The article itself proves that the MSM hasn’t figured it out.

One of the first results reported shows that “In the poll, sentiments divided along predictable partisan lines. Republicans by an overwhelming 89%-9% oppose a Senate vote that would remove Trump from office; Democrats by 81%-15% support it. Independents by 52%-41% oppose it.” It isn’t exactly predictable that independents oppose impeachment by 11 points.

Later, the poll reports “Men oppose convicting Trump by close to 2-1, 62%-33%. Women by double digits support a conviction, 57%-40%.” It isn’t surprising that there’s a gender gap. What’s surprising is that men oppose President Trump’s conviction by 29 points. That’s a huge gap that favors Republicans bigtime. Despite that, here’s what USA Today says about the gender gaps:

That could signal political turbulence ahead for the GOP, which struggled to hold the support of female voters in last year’s midterm elections.

It isn’t disputable that women abandoned Republicans by a wide margin. This graphic tells the tale, though:

In 2018, Democrats had a 19-point advantage with women while Republicans held a 4-point lead with men. With all due respect to the journalists 4-point gap with men in 2018 vs. a 29-point gap in 2020 is a pretty significant difference. Based on 2018 exit polling and this USA Today polling, 2020 will be nothing like 2018. This paragraph from this article should frighten Democrats:

According to the survey, Trump would beat former Vice-President Joe Biden by three points, Sen. Bernie Sanders by five points, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren by six points.

Additionally, President Trump defeats Bloomberg by 9 points and Buttigieg by 10 points. It’s worth noting that this is a national poll. Prior to this poll, the only polling that showed President Trump ahead were battleground state polls.

That isn’t insignificant because we have a federal election, not a national election. Polling that shows President Trump leading in battleground states are most important. National polling that shows President Trump leading the top 5 Democrats should frighten the daylights out of Democrats. Perhaps this graphic tells the story better:

The people have figured it out that impeachment is just the latest Democrat-led temper tantrum. Democrats should accept the fact that they won’t defeat President Trump and they won’t impeach and convict him, either. That’s the political reality of this situation.

One thing that Brad Parscale isn’t getting credit for is his installing efficiencies into the Trump campaign. That will change as more information (like this) gets out: Dr. Gina Loudon was at President Trump’s rally in Sunrise, FL, Tuesday night. She’s the national co-chair of the Women For Trump campaign. Dr. Gina reported that Republicans registered 31,000 voters at Tuesday night’s rally. First, that’s a staggering total. I’m certain that President Trump is the only candidate in this race who could accomplish anything like this, mostly because there isn’t a Democrat in the race who can attract that big of a crowd. It’s important to remind people that Sunrise, FL is in Broward County, one of the bluest counties in Florida.

Next, Dr. Gina reported that 30% of the registrations were Democrats who switched allegiances to the GOP. Again, that’s an astronomical number, one that certainly frightens Democrats. Third, Dr. Gina reported that 27% of the registrations were Hispanics.

This isn’t just happening in Sunrise. It’s happening at each of President Trump’s rallies. They’ve registered voters in El Paso, TX, Houston, TX, Orlando, FL, and New Mexico. If these attendees of Trump rallies turn into votes, which a high percentage will do, it’ll be a game-changer. Think of all of the new Republicans that this efficiency will create. That isn’t good news for Democrats.

Brad Todd was on The Story Wednesday night. He’s the co-author of The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics along with Salena Zito. He told guest-host Ed Henry that Democrats aren’t even trying to win back the blue collar workers they lost to Trump in 2016. If that’s true, then Democrats face an uphill fight in 2020.

Finally, there’s the Trump campaign’s minority outreach program. Based on multiple recent polling, President Trump’s approval rating is improving with minorities. He’s at 34% with African-Americans in a recent Rasmussen poll. He’s at 34.5% with African-Americans in a recent Emerson poll.

If Democrats aren’t attempting to win back blue collar voters, which appears to be the case, and if President Trump is making inroads into minority communities, which appears to be happening, then Pennsylvania and Michigan would be uphill fights for Democrats. Factor in the Trump/RNC cash advantage and the Democrats’ hill gets even harder to climb. Factor in the great economy and that hill might look more like Kilimanjaro than foothill.

Something that the MSM, aka the Agenda Media, doesn’t understand is how detached the polling is from Trump’s real life army. Last fall, I read every one of Salena Zito’s articles from states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia and Michigan. (The first 2 states, like the last 2 states, were supposedly part of Hillary’s blue firewall.)

Thursday night in Huntington, WVA, President Trump held a rally that was high on energy, predictable in content and troubling for the Democratic Party. Despite the spate of recent negative polling, President Trump’s army hasn’t wavered in their support of him. Here’s why that should frighten Democrats. If Democrats can’t reconnect with blue collar voters, they’ll lose in 2020 by a bigger margin than Hillary lost by in 2016.

Tip O’Neill famously said that “all politics is local.” That’s definitely true. In the small towns in northern Pennsylvania, Ohio’s Mahoning Valley, Michigan and Wisconsin, blue collar voters are seeing the Trump economic plan pay dividends. In Pennsylvania, they’re creating tons of mining jobs. In Ohio, they’re creating steel industry jobs. In Wisconsin, Foxconn is creating high-paying manufacturing jobs. It isn’t likely that Democrats will flip those states back into their column anytime soon.

President Trump got lots of applause when, early in his speech, he said “We are putting our coal miners back to work. We’ve ended the war on beautiful clean coal. We’ve stopped the EPA intrusion. American coal exports are already up — think of this — American exports of coal are already up more than 60% this year.”

While he said this to a packed auditorium in Huntington, WVA, rest assured that coal miners in Pennsylvania and Ohio heard President Trump’s message and applauded. Watch President Trump’s speech here:

Charles Krauthammer said that the speech wasn’t particularly memorable but it was still important because it sent the message that he still commands a massive army of supporters. That’s totally true.

Last year, faux reporters were appalled when then-candidate Trump said that “You know what else they say about my people? The polls, they say I have the most loyal people. Did you ever see that? Where I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters, okay? It’s like incredible.” While he said it rather inartfully, there’s little doubt that he hasn’t lost much support. President Trump has figured out something that most politicians haven’t. He’s figured out that keeping his biggest promises engenders steadfast loyalty.

Until something substantive happens to dramatically change the electorate’s perspective, I’ll continue believing that Democrats will have an uphill fight in 2020.

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