Archive for the ‘Battleground States’ Category
Newt Gingrich is one of the best political strategists of our time. Whether you agree or disagree with his policies, whether you think he’s too temperamental or whether you think he’s utterly brilliant, there’s no denying the fact that he’s got a fantastic knack of understanding main street. This video is a tour de force presentation by Newt:
Here’s the first thing Newt said that caught my attention:
It’s great. It’s the American drama. After all the talk, after all the ads, after all the pontificating, the American people get to tell us.
I’ll just say this. It’s about time. Let’s get this started. I’ve had enough of looking at deceitful polls. I’m tired of listening to President Obama’s stump speech. It isn’t time for the pontificators to leave the stage. It’s just time for them to add insight into why the American people made the decision they made.
This is the next thing Newt said that caught my attention:
I’ll give you one example. They’re talking about Democratic early voting in Ohio but they’re counting the counties along the Ohio River, which is coal country, which are Second Amendment gun rights country, which are God-fearing counttry, which are the very things that Obama had contempt for in San Fransisco. Those Democrats are going to vote against Obama.
It’s wrong to think of these coal-mining Democrats as Romney Democrats, at least at this point. It’s possible they’d be accurately described as Romney Democrats. It’s entirely possible they’ll just join the GOP.
At this point, though, it’s best calling them anti-Obama Democrats. At this point, they’re best described as people agitated that a Democrat wouldn’t fight for the blue collar Democrats that once was the backbone of the Democratic Party.
This statement spoke volumes to me:
NEWT: I was struck by something Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times, hardly a right wing reporter, said that the states he’d been in this week, his phrase was “The organic enthusiasm was for Romney.” There was a mechanical machine for Obama but there was an organic enthusiasm for Romney. My experience in politics is that organic enthusiasm,. the whole wave effect, always defeats the mechanical machine.
Notice that Newt didn’t criticize the machine. He simply said that a mob of genuinely enthusiastic voters will defeat the machine every time. I couldn’t dispute that if I wanted to.
Later, they talked about Todd Akin. Here’s what Newt said there:
Well, first of all, Callista and I have both been out campaigning with him. I’ve really liked Todd Akin. He was given a very bum rap by the national establishment. She is a very Obama-like voter in a state that voted by 71% against Obamacare and then she voted for Obamacare six weeks later. And Romney’s going to carry the state by 8-12 point so I think Akin wins by 3 points.
Frankly, I hadn’t thought about the folks along Ohio River Democrats voting early for Mitt but it makes sense. If that’s what’s happened, then that drops Ohio comfortably into Mitt’s lap. Similarly, if Mitt’s winning Missouri by double-digits and if Missourans don’t like Claire McCaskill like I think is the case, then I think Todd Akin wins.
I’m usually not a big fan of the RCP polling averages because too many junk polls get included in their averages. That said, it’s occasionally a good indicator of the state of specific races.
One of those races is the U.S. Senate race in Florida between Republican Connie Mack and Democrat incumbent Bill Nelson. In a rare instance of a trio of recent polls from highly qualified pollsters that sampled likely voters give us a strong indication of the state of the race.
SurveyUSA puts the race at Mack 48%, Nelson 42%. Mason-Dixon puts the race at Nelson 47%, Mack 42%. Finally, Rasmussen has it at Mack with 46%, Nelson at 37%. Each of these polls were within the past 2 weeks and sampled likely voters.
At this point, I wouldn’t count this as a GOP gain but I’d certainly put it in the leans GOP gain column. If a former astronaut like Bill Nelson is having difficulty winning re-election in Florida, think what that says for President Obama’s chances of winning Florida again.
At this point, Sen. Nelson is in trouble. It wouldn’t surprise me if President Obama is, too.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker says President Barack Obama’s political machine is pulling out all the stops to defeat him in the pivotal June 5 recall election, a race that could determine the future of many efforts around the country to curb runaway government spending.
“I think you’ll see the most radical elements on the left are going to be involved in this recall, because again for them, this is so critically important,” Walker told Newsmax in an exclusive interview.
“I think they understand that when we win, this will send a powerful message not just to other Republican governors, but to even some of the discerning Democrats who hold governorships and even mayoral positions across the country.”
Here’s what I wrote about potential ramifications from the recall election:
There’s alot riding on this recall election for both sides. If the unions dump tons of money into defeating Gov. Walker, which they will, but Gov. Walker still wins, it’ll be another stinging defeat for the unions. If they’re defeated, that means President Obama’s campaign will be fighting an uphill fight.
With the Wisconsin GOP GOTV operation off to a successful start, Democrats, especially the unions, have alot to worry about.
The fact that President Obama knows that he must spend tons of money in Wisconsin says that he knows he’s in trouble if Gov. Walker wins this recall election. First, the unions’ bankrolls will be severely depleted after these recall elections.
They’ll be scrambling for the cash they’ll need to protect pro-union legislators in state legislatures and Congress. They won’t have the warchest they’ll need to go on the offensive. Additionally, they’ve got to protect the incumbents they’ve got. If they don’t protect their incumbents, things could get ugly in state legislatures and in DC alike.
President Obama knows that Gov. Walker winning also energizes Republicans. That’s something he can’t afford in Wisconsin. With Saturday’s impressive GOTV operation, morale will be riding high for GOP GOTV volunteers.
In 2008, President Obama raised a ton of cash, which he used to bury Sen. McCain with. This cycle, he’s raising tons of cash, too. This time, though, he’ll need every penny of it to fend off his GOP opponent.
When the dust settles on June 5, there’s a distinct possibility that political historians will mark that as the date President Obama’s re-election campaign suffered a mortal blow.
A recent PPP poll showed Walker with a 50 to 45 percent edge over his leading Democratic opponent, Milwaukee County executive Tom Barrett. He also holds a 50 to 43 percent advantage over his other potential rival, Kathleen Falk, the former Dane County executive who is the unions’ favorite.
That Gov. Walker is over 50% against both of his opponents can’t help the Democrat’s morale. They’ll still work hard but they’re still fighting an uphill fight.