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IBD’s editorial on the state of the economy is great news for Republicans’ midterm hopes. It opens by saying “A new report shows that the median household income has climbed 3% since President Trump took office. It’s another sign of a strong economy, and at least one poll shows the public credits Trump for the good news. Should Democrats wave bye to the Blue Wave?”

After that, it mixes in statistics to strengthen its point. For instance, included in the article is the fact that the “latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is 53.6. This index has been in positive territory (anything over 50 is optimistic) since Trump took office. The Quality of Life Index, meanwhile, hit a 14-year high in May and the Financial Stress Index is at an all-time low. Gallup’s tracking poll shows that 67% now say it’s a good time to find “a quality job in the U.S.,” which is the highest since Gallup started asking this question 17 years ago. The best this measure ever got under Obama was a paltry 45%. CNN’s poll finds that 57% now say ‘things are going well in the U.S.,’ up from just 49% in February. The latest CBS News/YouGov poll found that 64% rate the economy as somewhat or very good.”

This isn’t cherrypicking the only good news out of a gloomy economic report. This is reporting one bit of economic good news after another. The most important part is that President Trump and Republicans are getting the credit for these improvements:

But what must really concern Democrats is that 68% of the public now says Trump’s policies deserve at least some of the credit, according to the CBS poll. Thirty-five percent say he deserves a ‘great deal’ of credit for the current economy, while only 11% say he deserves none at all.

That isn’t good news for Democrats but that isn’t what should worry Democrats most. Here’s what Democrats should be most worried about. They don’t have a defense for unanimously voting against the Trump/GOP tax cuts. When the calendar flips to October and politicians make their final push towards the election, Democrats won’t have a legitimate defense for voting against the tax cuts. That’s precisely when most voters will finally start paying attention to the election and making their final decisions.

By the time the polls register that change, it’ll be too late for Democrats. Their political ship will have already hit the proverbial iceberg. Good luck with that.

That same poll found the Democratic advantage in the “generic ballot” at only +2 points. The latest Reuters poll has Republicans up by almost 6 points. As recently as March, Democrats had an average 9-point lead on this question, which is seen as an indicator of the enthusiasm for the two parties going into the midterm elections in November.

We’re heading into Memorial weekend. By the time Labor Day weekend rolls around, we’ll likely be looking at a significantly improved situation — for Republicans.

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Newt Gingrich has always been good at shocking people. That isn’t to say that he’s wrong with these predictions. It’s just that Mr. Gingrich’s predictions don’t comply with the MSM’s predictions from within the DC echochamber.

Speaker Gingrich’s shocking predictions start virtually in the first paragraph when he said “The great political surprise of 2018 will be the size of the Republican victory. After members of the elite media have spent two years savaging President Trump, lying about Republican legislation, and reassuring themselves that Republican defeat was inevitable, the size of the GOP victory in 2018 will be an enormous shock.”

Saying that those predictions run contrary to conventional wisdom is understatement. Nonetheless, it’s worth looking at Gingrich’s logic. Specifically, Gingrich focused on a CBS News article featuring a “North Carolina single mother with an income slightly under $40,000 who didn’t think she would be affected will keep about $1,300 more per year under the GOP bill.” Then the article focused on two “college teachers in Rhode Island with a joint income of over $150,000 a year thought they would pay more taxes, but they will actually pay about $650 less under the GOP tax cut.” The article finished with “a California couple with three children, a small business, and earning an income of approximately $300,000. The family believed that because California is a high-tax state, that capping state and local tax deductions would really hurt them. Instead, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will save them nearly $13,000 in taxes.”

Imagine if people in the Midwest find out that Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer lied to them about the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Imagine what will happen when people find out that their Democrat representative or senator voted against these tax cuts. Finally, imagine how those people will feel if they find out that Democrats put a higher priority on winning political battles than they put on doing the right thing for families.

The gap between the news media falsehoods and the dramatically better reality of the GOP tax cuts will have three huge effects on the 2018 campaign:
1. The American people will be positively surprised and pleased by the degree to which Republicans kept their word and actually put more money in taxpayer pockets. After 10 months of frustration from trying to repeal Obamacare, Republicans have proven they can get big things done.
2. The news media’s dishonesty will be vivid at a personal level. People will be able to compare their personal experience with the news media’s fake reporting and endless bias. As the truth sinks in, the ability of the liberal media to shape opinion will decline even further.
3. Democrats who voted against the bill will live to regret it as people look at their family budgets and realize Democrats in the House and Senate wanted Washington bureaucrats to have more money, rather than hard-working Americans. This will certainly be a losing proposition for the 10 Senate Democrats up for re-election in states President Trump won in 2016.

I haven’t bought into the MSM’s doom-and-gloom-for-Republicans predictions, mostly because I still think people will change their mind when they find the outcome from this tax reform is significantly different than they were told it would be. I’m a firm believer in the old cliché that says “when the facts change, I change, too. What do you do, Sir?”

It isn’t stretch to think that people don’t like the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act because they’ve been told that it’s raising their taxes. Imagine what happens when people find that their taxes are actually getting cut. First, that’ll lead to a serious erosion of trust of Democrats.

There’s no doubt that this is contrarian stuff. Still, Gingrich has held awfully contrarian views for quite some time. In 1994, he told the world that Republicans would retake the House. Democrats, especially Vic Fazio, laughed. That November, Republicans won the House majority for the first time in 40 years.

I’m not predicting Republican gains in the House but I won’t bet against Gingrich, either.

The once-anticipated Democrat wave appears to be off to a bumpy start. Sen. Schumer said that Republicans will “rue the day” they pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Earlier this afternoon, Nancy Pelosi said that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was the “worst bill in history.” If drama queen antics translate into votes, Democrats will have a supermajority in the House and a filibuster-proof Senate.

The bad news for Democrats is that drama queen antics don’t translate into votes. John Daniel Davidson’s article for the Federalist highlights the Democrats’ problem. In his article, Davidson wrote that “the main problem with the blue wave theory of 2018 is that it asks too much of the Democratic Party, which is riven by as much division and confusion as the GOP is, if not more. As Ed O’Keefe and Dave Weigel reported recently in The Washington Post, Democrats ‘can’t agree on what the party stands for. From immigration to banking reform to taxes to sexual harassment, many in the party say it does not have a unified message to spread around the country.’ The left-wing base of the Democratic Party seems content to go out and run on a promise to impeach the president on some grounds or other, even as centrist Democratic candidates that don’t toe the Bernie Sanders-Elizabeth Warren line on everything from health care to Wall Street regulations are left to fend for themselves. What’s worse, they have no economic message.”

In other words, the Democrats still have lots of problems. That’s been verified by this:

It’s pretty pathetic when Democrat protesters don’t show up for an anti-tax cut protest. It’s beyond pathetic when the protesters and Ms. Pelosi don’t show up for an anti-tax cut protest.

House Republicans, for all their difficulties this year, passed the bill 227-203 this afternoon. Tonight, Senate Republicans are expected to pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 51-48, with all Republican senators still in DC voting for it. Sen. McCain is in Arizona getting treated at the Mayo Clinic for complications arising from his cancer treatment. In the first half of this video, Newt Gingrich lays out what’s likely to happen in 2018:

Once the tax tables get updated and people start seeing their paychecks get bigger and people who are currently unemployed get good-paying full-time jobs, reality will crush the Democrats because every Democrat in the House and Senate will have voted against tax cuts and more jobs.

When Sen. Schumer and Nancy Pelosi skipped their meeting with President Trump, they handed President Trump the easiest PR victory of his presidency. This picture is worth half a dozen Senate seats and a dozen House seats:

Ainsley Earhardt asked Newt Gingrich if it was genius on Trump’s part, to which Gingrich replied “It’s not genius walks up to you and hands you a big, easy win”:

Newt laid it out perfectly at the start of the interview, saying “Trump’s sitting there, saying ‘I’m trying to solve it; I wonder where they are.'” ‘Chuck and Nancy’ were literally nowhere to be found. That picture will be used against Democrat incumbents and challengers alike next fall. The message that picture will send is ‘we’re working for the American people. The Democrats are no-shows.’ Being a no-show is infinitely worse than being a do-nothing politician.

Later, Chuck and Nancy issued a joint statement, saying “Given that the president doesn’t see a deal between Democrats and the White House, we believe the best path forward is to continue negotiating with our Republican counterparts in Congress instead. Rather than going to the White House for a show meeting that won’t result in an agreement, we’ve asked Leader McConnell and Speaker Ryan to meet this afternoon.” Speaker Ryan and Sen. McConnell sent their own message by showing up for the meeting with President Trump but rejected meeting with Chuck and Nancy.

Still later, Pelosi posted this tweet:

.@realDonaldTrump now knows that his verbal abuse will no longer be tolerated. His empty chair photo opp showed he’s more interested in stunts than in addressing the needs of the American people. Poor Ryan and McConnell relegated to props. Sad!

Pelosi and Schumer haven’t figured it out that their nonparticipation in negotiations is proof of their unseriousness. Acting like a pair of spoiled brats won’t win the fight with President Trump. He’s defeated them without them showing up. That’s too easy.

Once the tax bill is passed (yes, it’s happening) and the government is funded and the debt ceiling is raised, Republicans will return to tormenting Democrats, especially on the campaign trail.

If there’s a message coming from Newt Gingrich’s op-ed, it’s that Republicans must put together a compelling message to pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Gingrich reminds Republicans that “passing serious legislation is very hard work. There is still a great deal to do, and the timeline is incredibly tight”, adding that “The Joint Committee on Taxation has already provided preliminary analysis for the bill. Its estimates are static and assume tax cuts will have no impact on growth. As a result of this bad assumption, the JCT incorrectly estimates the bill would create a significant budget shortfall, $1.43 trillion over 10 years.”

Gingrich continued, saying “The truth is, our gross domestic product is growing at 3 percent, largely due to deregulatory efforts by the Trump administration and the expectation of tax cuts. Passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would further spur GDP growth, so the bill should be scored dynamically. The Tax Foundation has made dynamic estimates on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which show the bill would ‘significantly lower marginal tax rates and the cost of capital, which would lead to 3.9 percent higher GDP over the long term, 3.1 percent higher wages, and an additional 975,000 full-time equivalent jobs.’ This economic growth would raise federal revenues by nearly $1 trillion over 10 years, according to the Tax Foundation. In the end, this new revenue could bring the bill close to neutral, depending on what baseline is used to score it.”

Let’s get serious about something. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will speed up the economy. That’s indisputable even though Nancy Pelosi insisted in this speech that it would kill jobs. Ms. Pelosi has told lots of whoppers in the past. This is another whopper. Republicans seem interested in self-destruction.

Sen. Lankford has announced his opposition to it because it supposedly increases the deficit. Here’s a simple question for Sen. Lankford. If Republicans fail to pass this bill, what’s the likelihood they’ll have to vote on a Democrat budget that would hurt job creation and economic growth? What’s the likelihood that a Democrat budget would increase the deficit more than this bill would?

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act isn’t perfect but it’s definitely a step in the right direction. There’s economic growth happening right now. This isn’t just the right time to pass tax cuts. It’s the best time to pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

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Much internet bandwidth has been used on who won Monday night’s presidential debate. Two of the best political thinkers think that Trump won. Pat Caddell, Jimmy Carter’s pollster, has some interesting statistics that indicate some interesting things that contradict conventional wisdom. In this article, Caddell notes that “48 percent said Clinton did a better job, compared to 43 percent, who said Trump did the better job” before noting “95 percent of the people we contacted told us they were not going to change their vote based on the debate.”

Caddell then noted that “Trump won on the most critical factor, on whether Clinton or Trump was more ‘plausible’ as president, 46 percent to her 42 percent,” saying that “that, for him, was what this debate was really about.” Dovetailing off of that is the fact that, according to Caddell, “forty-eight percent of respondents said in the debate Trump showed he would be a strong leader, compared with 44 percent for Clinton.”

That’s the statistical side of things. Newt Gingrich’s op-ed provides the analysis:

The Intellectual Yet Idiot class that dominates our news media fell all over themselves critiquing Trump and praising Holt and Clinton. In doing so, they repeated the mistake they have made about every debate since August 2015.

Trump wins strategically because in a blunt, clear style, he is saying things most Americans believe.

With 70% of the country thinking that we’re heading in the wrong direction, it’s a major victory for a candidate to win the people’s trust. That’s confirmed by Salena Zito’s reporting, which Gingrich cited here:

Salena Zito is one of the country’s most perceptive journalists, in part because she is grounded outside of Washington and New York. Her column about the debate, “How Trump Won Over a Bar of Undecideds and Democrats,” should be required reading for everyone who wants to understand why Trump strategically won the debate.

After that, Gingrich mocked the elitists:

Trump has a hard time with media elites because they earn a living by talking. The media values glibness. In their world you can speak nonsense if you do it smoothly and convincingly. Trump is a blunt, let’s-make-a-deal, let’s-get-the-building-built, let’s-sell-our-product businessman. The first debate showcased a blunt, plain spoken businessman and a polished professional politician.

In other words, the fight was word salad vs. leadership. Here’s how that worked out:

Time: Trump 55 Clinton 45
Fortune: Trump 53, Clinton 47
N.J.com (New Jersey): Trump 57.5, Clinton 37.78
CNBC: Trump 68, Clinton 32
WCPO Cincinnati: Trump 57, Clinton 37
Variety: Trump 58.12, Clinton 41.88
Slate: Trump 55.18, Clinton 44.82
WKRN Nashville: Trump 64.58, Clinton 35.42
Las Vegas Sun: Trump 82, Clinton 18
Fox5 San Diego: Trump 61.45, Clinton 33.69
San Diego Tribune: Trump 65, Clinton 35


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Last night, Newt Gingrich was on Hannity’s TV show after Hannity interviewed Sen. Cruz. Newt’s words should serve as a wake-up call to Trump. Among the things that Gingrich said was that Trump getting down in the mud over Sen. Cruz’s wife, Heidi, would hurt Trump in California.

Gingrich said that Trump’s ratings were already bad with women, that Trump can’t afford further erosion of support with women and that women make up a “huge” part of the GOP electorate in California. According to this LA Times poll, Trump leads Sen. Cruz with likely primary voters by a 36%-35% margin.

According to Gingrich, Trump will be in trouble if Trump doesn’t start acting more stable and being more of a gentleman. The odds of that happening are roughly equivalent to the odds that Hillary Clinton will walk into FBI headquarters this week and signing a confession that she lied to FBI investigators. In other words, there’s no chance of Trump starting to act like a gentleman.

Newt said that he thinks Sen. Cruz will do pretty well in Wisconsin and that “this ought to be a wake-up call to Trump, that he’d better rethink some of the underlying patterns of his campaign.” I think that’s the right advice. I don’t think, though, that Trump will pay much attention to Newt’s advice. If we’ve learned anything, it’s that Trump’s ego is bigger than the Grand Canyon and that it might be as big as the state of Texas.

Rethinking things isn’t Trump’s strength.

Newt explains things perfectly here:

Look, Donald Trump had a very easy answer to that truly stupid — I think it was actually a Facebook ad that was sent out. The answer was simple. Melania was a supermodel on a professional shoot for a very famous magazine. He’s very proud of her and she’ll be a very beautiful first lady. Now, if he had just said that and moved on, then the Cruz campaign would’ve looked stupid. The issue would’ve been over. He would’ve seemed more disciplined and more pleasant and a gentleman. Instead, he gets down into this mud that I really think has hurt him. I’m not sure that anyone in the Trump campaign understands yet what a big mistake this is and they can’t keep doing this stuff and expect to win this nomination.

Gingrich thinks that Trump’s threatening Heidi Cruz will hurt him with women, especially in California. I’ll simplify this for the Trump campaign. If Trump doesn’t win California, he won’t be the GOP nominee. Sen. Cruz has outhustled him in too many states. If Trump isn’t the nominee on the first ballot, he’s history.

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This editorial by the Mesabi Daily News’ Editorial Board beautifully defines who’s fighting against the Keystone XL Pipeline project:

So why should the Barack Obama administration continue to drag this “good for the USA” project out after six years of review and a recent Nebraska Supreme Court ruling paving the way on a local level for the pipeline?

We see no reason other than the president being controlled by the far-left environmental wing of the Democratic Party that is so far out of step with the vast majority of Americans that you need some powerful binoculars to even find its members.

Let’s be blunt. The environmental activist wing of the Democratic Party isn’t just out of step with “the vast majority of Americans.” It isn’t that you’d “need powerful binoculars” to see these activists from America’s political mainstream.

It’s that the environmental activist wing of the Democratic Party isn’t interested in anyone’s opinions. They’re like crazed cult members. Though these environmental activists don’t respect other people’s opinions, that doesn’t mean they’ll pick fights with the people that support their agenda:

And we would also like to hear what both Sens. Klobuchar and Franken think about what the anti-Keystone zealots say about the thousands and thousands of construction jobs that would be created by the pipeline.

The people that make up the environmental activist wing of the Democratic Party will never get asked difficult questions by politicians like Sen. Klobuchar and Sen. Franken. That’s because politicians like Sen. Klobuchar and Sen. Franken know that environmentalists are significantly more reliable Democrat votes than construction union members are.

Members of the local pipefitters or other unions sometimes meander away from the Democratic Party. Politicians like Sen. Klobuchar and Sen. Franken know that. They also know that environmental activists vote for Democrats almost as reliably as journalists or trial attorneys. Private sector union workers don’t.

That’s why Sen. Klobuchar and Sen. Franken voted against cloture on S.1, the bill that would force the Obama administration to permit construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline:

The motion passed with strong bipartisan support by a 63-32 margin. Five senators didn’t vote. Democrats mocked Republicans for coming up with slogans like “Drill, baby, drill” and “Drill here, drill now, pay less”:

It isn’t that Democrats are stupid when it comes to energy policy. It’s that they’re that beholden to those crazed cult members known as environmental activists. You know the type. They’re the wing of the Democratic Party that’s “so far out of step with the vast majority of Americans that you need some powerful binoculars to even find its members.”

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First, I’ll stipulate that Newt Gingrich is a flawed man who’s paid a hefty price for his mistakes. Next, I’ll state what I emphatically believe: that Newt Gingrich the visionary isn’t just the right tonic for what’s ailing the GOP. He’s the perfect strategist to lead Republicans to victory. Newt’s speech at CPAC this year is a perfect illustration of what I’m talking about:

The reason why Newt’s got the right strategy is because his speeches aren’t about politics. They’re about improving life with a political twist. Check out this part of Newt’s speech:

NEWT: We must stop being the opposition movement. We must become the alternative government movement that will help make the life of every American better so that they would understand what we would do that we would do right, not just what the left is doing wrong.

The biggest thing that conservatives can do to guarantee the best shot at victories this fall is telling the American people that a) we’re the solutions party and b) we trust families and small businesses to make great decisions.

That necessarily means trusting people with lots of options. If we trust families, we should be the party whose health care reform legislation gives families tons of options to fit their families’ needs. By doing that, Republicans will highlight the difference between Harry Reid’s and Al Franken’s one-size-fits-all plan, aka the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, and Republicans’ legislation that trusts families.

That’s a perfect segue into another major point in Newt’s speech:

The smartphone will be the leading public health device of the 21st Century. It’ll be the leading learing device. It’ll be the leading management tool. Congressman Dr. Michael Burgess has a smartphone that has 8 medical applications on it. He can do an electrocardiogram with his smartphone. Now the Food and Drug Administration, seeing the dramatic rise in applications that improve your health, now wants to take over approving applications for smartphones.

Now if you want to see a fight where we can be on the side of young Americans and the left is hopeless, you just go out to any college campus and you say ‘how would you like Washington bureaucrats slowing down the number of new applications you can get, most of them, by the way, are free’?

The party of excessive government can’t control its appetite for controlling people’s lives. Young people naturally love lots of options. In that fight, Democrats lose bigtime.

If Republicans become the party that trusts small businesses to innovate and make families’ lives better, they’ll win decisively because people of all demographic backgrounds will want what we’re selling.

If conservatives return to Reagan’s and Kemp’s and Thatcher’s belief that great ideas that make families’ lives better also makes for great politics, then conservatives will win decisively.

The point isn’t about sounding more conservative or more moderate. It’s about who has great ideas. I’m not advocating for moderation. I’m advocating that makes families’ lives better through entrepreneurship and innovation. Conservatives will jump all over that because it’s from the private sector. Apolitical people will jump all over it because their lives will be improved by the innovations that’s only possible through entrepreneurship.

Watch Newt’s entire speech if you want to see how to win the future. You’ll want to hear Newt’s connecting the dots between the Bakken and defeating Putin. Newt’s speech isn’t getting the buzz like others’ speeches. It’s just the blueprint that’ll make the GOP the dominant party again.

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According to Newt’s article, it’s apparent that conventional wisdom was wrong…again. Based on the latest CNN poll, it’s apparent that the American people blame Republicans, Democrats and President Obama equally for the shutdown:

When asked in the CNN poll whom they are angry at, 63% said Republicans, 58% said Democrats and 53% said Obama. That is a 10-point margin for the president and only a 5-point margin for Democrats, compared with a 23-point margin in November 1995. Independents said they blamed all three equally (60% GOP, 59% Democrats, 58% Obama). This is so clearly within the margin of error that it is for all practical purposes a tie.

After weeks of the media focusing blame on House Speaker John Boehner, Sen. Ted Cruz and the House Republicans, it is clear the American people are not buying it.

Earlier in the article, Newt talked about polling during 1995 shutdown:

A CNN poll at the time showed Americans blamed Republicans over President Bill Clinton for the first shutdown by almost 2-to-1, 49% to 26%. Republicans fared only a little better in the second shutdown of the mid-’90s. A CNN poll after it began showed the American people preferred Clinton’s approach to that of the Republicans by 52% to 38%.

Sixty-two percent said they had negative feelings about the Republican leaders during that conflict, compared with only 49% about Clinton.

It’s pretty apparent that the American people are perfectly capable of understanding the different dynamics at play in this shutdown vs. the 1995-96 shutdown. In 1995, Gingrich’s troops didn’t hide the fact that they a) took seriously the fact that they controlled the purse strings and b) that they wanted to change the direction of the country. They didn’t hide the fact that they were will willing to shut government down if that’s what it took to win the longterm fight.

President Clinton understood that. He didn’t hesitate in negotiating with Republicans. By doing that, he looked reasonable. Fast forward to today. This time, it’s Boehner’s Republicans who look reasonable compared with President Obama’s mean-spirited character.

After weeks of the media focusing blame on House Speaker John Boehner, Sen. Ted Cruz and the House Republicans, it is clear the American people are not buying it.

There have been too many days of the president saying, “I will not negotiate.” The country believes him. They can see he’s a big part of the reason the government is shut down.

That’s why it’s impossible for me to believe the Gallup and Rasmussen polling that shows President Obama with a job approval rating near 50%. There’s no way to square up the CNN and AP polling with Rasmussen’s and Gallup’s polling.

If House Republicans continue to pass targeted, clean continuing resolutions to fund parts of the government and Senate Republicans demand day after day for the right to vote on these popular measures, the margin of blame may begin shifting from virtual parity to a solidly Democratic problem.

If the Republicans repeat every day their willingness to negotiate and Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid repeat every day their refusal to negotiate, this may become catastrophic for the Democrats.

I don’t expect President Obama to take that hardline approach much longer. He’s got to be seeing polling that shows his popularity tanking. That’s why it’s impossible to believe President Obama will stick to his guns.

That said, House Republicans have done their Senate colleagues a ton of good during this fight. They’ve forced Mark Begich, Kay Hagan, Mary Landrieu and Mark Pryor to take votes they’ll regret next November. Voting against funding of the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and voting to keep the national parks closed just isn’t popular. It’s too early to predict that the entire group of Democratic senators will lose in November, 2014. Still, they might want to start drafting an outline for their concession speeches.

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