Archive for the ‘Marty Seifert’ Category
8:23 – With 1.1% of the precincts counted, Jeff Johnson has 1127 votes, followed by Scott Honour with 806, Kurt Zellers with 769 and Marty Seifert with 390.
In the DFL primary for State Auditor, Rebecca Otto leads with 2,339 to Matt Entenza’s 408 votes.
8:30 – 3% of precincts reporting — Johnson 1,758, Zellers 1,214, Honour 1,146, Seifert 740
DFL State Auditor Otto 6,308, Entenza 1,223
8:36 – CD-6 GOP Primary — 4 of 279 precincts reporting — Tom Emmer 311, Rhonda Sivarajah 92
8:40 – 4.5% of precincts reporting — Johnson 4,566, Honour 3,400, Zellers 3,357, Seifert 1,801
8:45 – DFL Auditor primary — Otto 9,964, Entenza 1,774
Observations: Thus far, Randy Gilbert has earned 10,523 votes in an uncontested primary. Rebecca Otto and Matt Entenza have earned 11,738 votes in a contested primary.
Matt Entenza really must’ve gotten under the DFL’s skin. He’s spent $675,000 on TV ad and he’s still getting crushed.
8:57 – GOP gubernatorial primary — 5% of precincts reporting — Johnson 4,637, Honour 3,454, Zellers 3,418, Seifert 1,902
9:00 – DFL State Auditor — Otto 10,213, Entenza 1,841
9:03 – GOP primary CD-6 — 3.23% of precincts reporting — Tom Emmer 525, Rhonda Sivarajah 141
9:06 – DFL Primary — 15% of precincts reporting Otto 42,957, Entenza 8,504. Get out the butter, folks. Matt Entenza is toast.
9:10 – GOP gubernatorial primary — Johnson 12,187, Zellers 9,219, Honour 8,696, Seifert 5,355
9:15 – 8% of precincts reporting — CD-6 GOP primary — Tom Emmer 1,117, Rhonda Sivarajah 304
9:17 – GOP Gubernatorial Primary — 23% of precincts reporting — Jeff Johnson 19,162, Kurt Zellers 13,806, Scott Honour 13,438, Marty Seifert 8,581
9:20 – DFL Primary State Auditor — Rebecca Otto 57,365, Matt Entenza 11,305
9:22 – GOP CD-6 primary — 17.5% of precincts reporting — Tom Emmer 2,721 votes, Rhonda Sivarajah 1,017
9:25 – GOP gubernatorial primary — 26.6% of precincts reporting — Jeff Johnson 20,966, Scott Honour 15,413, Kurt Zellers 15,322, Marty Seifert 9,999
9:30 – Entenza concedes
9:30 – GOP Primary CD-6 — 22.6% of precincts reporting — Tom Emmer 3,560, Rhonda Sivarajah 1,183
9:35 – GOP Gubernatorial Primary — 33.3% of precincts reporting — Jeff Johnson 24,588, Kurt Zellers 18,478, Scott Honour 18,030, Marty Seifert 12,800
9:40 – GOP CD-6 Primary — 31% of precincts reporting — Tom Emmer 5,083, Rhonda Sivarajah 1,564
9:45 – GOP Gubernatorial Primary — 39.5% of precincts reporting — Jeff Johnson 26,936, Kurt Zellers 20,285, Scott Honour 19,379, Marty Seifert 15,929
9:55 – GOP Gubernatorial Primary — 49% of precincts reporting — Jeff Johnson 31,045, Kurt Zellers 24,178, Scott Honour 22,098, Marty Seifert 19,897
10:02 – GOP CD-6 Primary — 35% of precincts reporting — Tom Emmer 6,347, Rhonda Sivarajah 1,937
10:10 – CD-6 GOP Primary — 44.44% of precincts reporting — Tom Emmer 7,844, Rhonda Sivarajah 3,097
The plot thickens. With 57.65% of the precincts reporting, Jeff Johnson still leads with 34,827 votes, followed by Kurt Zellers with 27,430, Scott Honour with 24,427 and Marty Seifert with 23,334.
10:25 – GOP Gubernatorial Primary — 63% of precincts reporting — Jeff Johnson 38,041, Kurt Zellers 30,273, Scott Honour 26,869, Marty Seifert 25,546
RealClearPolitics declared Jeff Johnson the winner of the GOP Gubernatorial primary. With 76% of precincts reporting, Johnson has a lead of almost 10,000 votes over Kurt Zellers, his nearest competitor.
KSTP has called the race for Johnson, too.
Tomorrow morning, I’ll enthusiastically cast my primary vote for Jeff Johnson. The reasons I’ll cast my vote for Jeff are similar to why I’ll vote for Tom Emmer.
Though he hasn’t published a post to the Hennepin County Taxpayers Watchdog blog in over a year, it’s clear that Jeff Johnson isn’t afraid to highlight wasteful government spending. The fact that he’s willing to do that in the Twin Cities shows that, if he’s elected governor this November, he won’t hesitate in calling out Tom Bakk’s pork. He certainly won’t hesitate in line-item vetoing things that, had they happened while he was commissioner, would’ve earned the Golden Hydrant award.
Things like spending $500,000 on 10 artistic drinking fountains would’ve won the Golden Hydrant Award.
Simply put, Jeff’s a proven watchdog of the taxpayers’ money. The DFL legislature and Gov. Dayton trampled taxpayers the last 2 years. They spent money on things drunken sailors would’ve been ashamed of.
On that note, Jeff Johnson held a special event last week at the site of Gov. Dayton’s and the DFL legislature’s biggest pork project. Last week, Jeff held a mock groundbreaking ceremony for Sen. Bakk’s Senate Legislative Office Building, aka the SLOB.
That’s a $90,000,000 monument to the DFL’s disdain for the taxpayers. After the event, the Dayton administration and the DFL legislators who voted for that ‘monument’ issued a statement saying that they didn’t hold a groundbreaking ceremony because there’s a tight schedule to get the thing built. That’s BS.
Gov. Dayton didn’t hold a ground-breaking ceremony because he didn’t want that to be turned into an ad against him this election cycle. (You know something’s terrible when even Gov. Dayton thinks it’s excessive.)
I’m voting for Jeff Johnson because Jeff will be a reform-minded governor. That’s what’s required of Minnesota’s government at this critical point in our history.
I’ll also be voting against Marty Seifert. I’m voting against him because of the stunt he tried pulling at the GOP State Convention in Rochester.
Dave Thompson spoke at the podium and withdrew from the race, telling his delegates to support Jeff Johnson. When Mr. Seifert asked to address the delegates, it was understood that it would be to withdraw his name from the endorsement fight. Instead, he instructed his delegates that they could leave.
With that decision, Seifert alienated 2,000 delegates and alternates in a single action. Now he’s saying that he’s the right candidate to unite the party. What a joke. I suppose he’d unite people in opposing him. I’m fairly certain that isn’t the type of unification he’s talking about, though.
The bottom line is this: I have lots of reasons to enthusiastically pull the trigger for Jeff Johnson. He’ll be a great governor.
This morning, Marty Seifert was interviewed by Tom Hauser. One of Hauser’s questions was about Seifert’s speech to his delegates that they could go home. Specifically, Hauser asked how that’s playing.
Seifert said that they’d “travelled to 13 cities by plane and by car”, noting that nobody was worried “about convention adjournment procedures.”
Noticeably missing from Seifert’s statement was how big the crowds were at his stops. Notice that he didn’t say that he was drawing big crowds. The point I’m making is simple. I spoke with lots of delegates to the convention that went there supporting Seifert who aren’t supporting him now.
Please understand that a substantial portion of Seifert’s supporters are fiercely loyal. People I know — friends of mine — wouldn’t abandon his campaign in its worst hour. These people should be commended for their loyalty. Anyone can support a candidate when times are good. People that support their candidate no matter what aren’t that common.
That being said, there were lots of people who supported Marty Seifert because they liked him or his policies. Many of those people got upset when they say that Marty Seifert tried preventing the delegates from endorsing a candidate for governor.
People aren’t upset with Seifert because of “convention adjournment procedures.” They’re pissed at him because he tried to thwart the voice of the delegate.
He’s lost those votes plus the people those delegates talk to. They understand that Marty Seifert was given permission to speak to the delegates with the understanding that he was dropping out of the endorsement fight. It was understood that he’d still run in the primary.
Instead, Marty Seifert tried to prevent the convention from doing its business. He put himself ahead of the delegates, the people who work hard to get Republicans elected, the people who march in parades, drop lit and make phone calls.
That isn’t what a team player does. That’s what a selfish person does. That’s why Marty Seifert faces an uphill fight. He’s facing an uphill fight because he deserves it.
Former Minneota Gov. Al Quie has endorsed Marty Seifert’s bid to replace Gov. Mark Dayton. Quie was once barred from participating in GOP events, including the 2012 Republican National Convention. First, here’s Quie’s endorsement:
“I have been impressed by Seifert’s ability to connect with Minnesotans all over our state and his unique grasp of the issues that are important for our future,” said Quie. “We need a leader who is dedicated to justice and he will appoint judges and justices who respect the law and the Constitution, have radical integrity, and who will respect the litigants.”
Quie is urging his fellow Republicans to vote for Seifert in the upcoming August 12th primary in order to defeat Dayton.
“Just as I defeated a DFL incumbent to become governor, Marty Seifert has the ability to bring people together and win in November.”
The notion that Seifert “has the ability to bring people together” is only credible if you think he pushed some of his supporters into supporting someone other than him when he tried to prevent Republicans from endorsing a candidate for governor.
Further, a substantial number of Seifert supporters also support judicial elections. Quie is the face of retention elections, which opposes judicial elections.
The reality is that Quie hasn’t been relevant to Republican Party politics for almost a generation. He’s from the RINO wing of the Minnesota GOP. Here’s more on why Quie was disciplined:
MPR reports that delegates to the party’s state central committee meeting voted 59-55 Saturday to bar 18 Republicans from party activities for two years, including the 2012 Republican National Convention.
The list of those who supported Independence Party candidate Tom Horner includes former Govs. Arne Carlson and Al Quie, former U.S. Sen. Dave Durenberger and donor George Pillsbury.
If Marty Seifert wants Quie’s endorsement, that’s his option. If Quie wants to endorse Seifert, that’s fine, too. The question is whether Quie’s support will have a positive impact on Republicans. I’m betting it won’t because most of the people who will vote in August’s primary don’t know who Quie is because he served before they were born. Here’s Seifert’s spin on Quie’s endorsement:
“Governor Quie has been universally praised for being a public servant willing to take risks, offering out-of-the-box ideas for education and judicial reforms,” said Seifert. “I am looking forward to hearing more of his advice on how to make Minnesota an even better place.”
Now that’s professional spin. Saying that Quie is “willing to take risks”, I suspect, is Seifert’s way of saying he’s supported former Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner’s tax increases and Horner’s candidacy. Nothing says ‘Let’s pull people together’ like getting endorsed by one of the erstwhile Republicans who cost Tom Emmer the election in 2010.
Compare that with State Sen. Michelle Benson endorsing Jeff Johnson, the endorsed GOP gubernatorial candidate. Sen. Benson is a talented legislator with impeccable conservative credentials and who’s very much relevant in Republican Party politics.
The latest KSTP-SurveyUSA poll showed Seifert trailing Jeff Johnson and Kurt Zellers by 10 points. There’s no reason to think the endorsement battle will help Seifert close that gap in any substantial way.
This weekend’s Republican Convention was a study in how 2 candidates handled things differently. Mike McFadden and Marty Seifert both said that they were keeping their options open on going to the primary if they weren’t endorsed at the convention. That’s where the similarity ends.
Friday’s first ballot in the senatorial campaign produced 2 stunners. Julianne Ortman finished in third. Meanwhile Chris Dahlberg came in first. While Dahlberg might’ve hoped for that, there’s no way he should’ve expected that. That result established him as a serious candidate.
It also hurt Sen. Ortman’s standing with the delegates. Had she finished with 35% and in first place, she might’ve played it positive the rest of the way. Instead, they went negative. That hurt her with the delegates.
Through it all, Team McFadden kept grinding away, staying in close contention on each ballot. Then they caught a break after the 7th ballot. The next morning, they were back at it with renewed confidence. They won it before the results of the 10th ballot were announced whe Dahlberg graciously conceded.
Contrast that with Team Seifert. They didn’t lead at any point. When the outcome became clear, Dave Thompson conceded while giving a gracious concession speech. Seifert approached the podium while Sen. Thompson spoke. It was thought that he’d concede, too.
Instead, he released his delegates publicly while telling them to leave the convention so there wouldn’t be a quorum. Without a quorum, there couldn’t be an endorsement. Activists on Twitter didn’t take that well. The convention video shows some people booing while others applauded.
This statement sums things up pretty nicely:
Delegate and Minnesota Tea Party Alliance chair Jack Rogers was blunter. “Marty [Seifert] has just galvanized every faction in this party to work for the endorsed candidate,” he said.
That can’t be what Team Seifert was hoping for. I’d think the fundraising doors slammed shut during Seifert’s speech, too.
Had Seifert accepted defeat or announced outside that he was going to the primary, he wouldn’t have upset the delegates. Instead, he essentially said that if he couldn’t win the endorsement, he’d do whatever he could to make sure nobody was endorsed.
That selfish act won’t play well with people. There’s no question that Seifert has loyal supporters. There’s no question that he’s alienated those who aren’t already his supporters.
McFadden earned a ton of political capital this weekend because he didn’t disrespect the delegates. Seifert lost whatever political capital he had by disrespecting the delegates.
As a result, McFadden’s stock is on the upswing while Seifert’s has ebbed.
Now that the fishing opener is pretty much history, it’s time to say that the Seifert Fishing Opener was a fiasco. This is what made it a fiasco:
It’s one thing for a candidate to hold a mock fishing opener. It’s a bit gimmicky but people aren’t likely to remember a stunt like that a month from now. It’s another to offer reporters free hotel rooms. That isn’t a gimmick. That’s a foolish stunt that’s sure to get Capitol reporters upset.
Here’s a little insight for Seifert’s campaign: This was foolish on multiple fronts. First, if reporters were interested in attending, they wouldn’t accept the offer for fear that they’d look compromised. Reporters have expense accounts for things like this.
Second, it’s foolish because it’s giving free ammunition to the DFL and the Alliance for a Better Minnesota. Even if Team Seifert made a sincere offer, which I believe they did, the reality is that the DFL and ABM don’t care. They’ll highlight this while they’re smearing Seifert.
This too-clever-by-half stunt carried significant downside with it but little upside. Had the Seifert campaign just done the fishing opener, ABM would’ve had to make something up to smear him. Instead, the Seifert campaign gift-wrapped this present for them. The only thing they didn’t do for the DFL is deliver it on a silver platter.
Third, this isn’t a net plus for Seifert with the Capitol press corps. It’s possible it’ll have the opposite effect. The old saying that there’s no such thing as bad press is BS. In this instance, the buzz won’t help the Seifert campaign.
This alone won’t prevent Seifert from winning the GOP endorsement. It just means people will enter the Convention questioning if he’ll make other unforced errors.
According to the Minnesota Morning Watchdog, Tom Emmer got a shot of good news from last night’s precinct caucuses:
6th District Congress (97% Reporting):
Tom Emmer with 67.7%, Rhonda Sivarajah with 17.7%, Phil Krinkie with 10.1%
Only 4.3% of caucus voters were undecided. While this straw poll isn’t binding, it can’t be ignored. Rhonda Sivarajah can’t be happy finishing 50 points behind Emmer. Phil Krinkie can’t be happy that he finished almost 60 points behind Emmer.
I’d be surprised if CD-6 delegates will be impressed with Commissioner Sivarajah’s or Rep. Krinkie’s showing. At this point, I’d argue that both face steep uphill fights to win the endorsement. I’d also argue that the odds of Tom Emmer winning a first ballot endorsement victory seem more likely this morning than they were a week ago.
In other straw poll news, Marty Seifert, Jeff Johnson and Dave Thompson appear to be heading for top 3 finishes in the gubernatorial straw poll. With 96% of precincts reporting, Seifert had 28% of the vote, followed by Dave Thompson with 26% and Jeff Johnson with 17%.
That’s got to put a smile on Sen. Thompson’s face. With a strong finish like that, Sen. Thompson can credibly tell potential contributors that his message is popular.
Marty Seifert has to be pleased, too. He can credibly tell potential contributors that he’s got the experience, organization and name recognition it’ll take to defeat Gov. Dayton.
While this wasn’t the strong showing the Johnson campaign was hoping for, Jeff Johnson must still be considered a top tier candidate. He’s got a solid fundraising team. He’s managing his resources well (he’s got the most cash-on-hand of the candidates) and he’s got a terrific record of being a fiscal conservative.
This couldn’t have been the night that Kurt Zellers was hoping for. Finishing a next-to-last 6th place with 8% can’t instill confidence in potential campaign contributors or in potential delegates.
Based on the results of last night’s U.S. Senate Straw Poll, it’s looking like it’s down to a 2-person race. With 96% of precincts reporting, Julianne Ortman led Mike McFadden by a 31%-22% margin. Finishing in third place was Undecided with 16%, followed by Jim Abeler with 15%.
With that many undecideds and soon-to-be undecided delegates, this is another race to watch.
Last night, I received an email from Jim Kroger, an assistant professor in the Accounting & Business Law department at Minnesota State University, Mankato. Dr. Kroger had studied the campaign finance reports of the GOP gubernatorial candidates.
This post shouldn’t be interpreted as me expressing my preference for who runs against Gov. Dayton. This post is simply about Dr. Kroger’s studies.
Dr. Kroger’s spreadsheet, which doesn’t translate well into WordPress formatting, gives us some basic information. Specifically, it highlights the fundraising per week and the burn rate per week for each of the candidates. At this point, Marty Seifert has raised an average of $26,029 per week while spending $1,842 per week since entering the race in late November. By contrast, Scott Honour has raised an average of $14,142 per week while spending $14,132 per average week.
Kurt Zellers is raising $13,392 per week while spending $9,894 per week. He’s followed by Jeff Johnson, who is raising an average of $7,041 per week while spending an average of $2,091 per week, followed by Dave Thompson, who has raised an average of $4,559 per week while spending $2,673 per week.
Here are some of Dr. Kroger’s observations:
- Seifert’s average weekly individual cash contributions of $26,029 exceed Dayton’s average weekly individual cash contributions of $15,327 by $10,702. Presently, in Republican circles, one of the issues that is discussed is which candidate can raise enough money to be competitive against Dayton. Based on this analysis, which seeks to measure each candidate equally based on when they announced for governor, Seifert is by far the strongest fundraiser outperforming Honour by a margin of nearly 2 to 1.
- The average amount of cash burned per week by Zellers exceeds the average amount of cash burned per week by Dayton by 143%. The average amount of cash burned per week by Honour exceeds the average amount of cash burned per week by Dayton by 204% (more than double). In Republican circles it is often said that no candidate will be able to fundraise and spend more than Dayton. Based on how fast Zellers and Honour are blowing their cash and what they are burning it on, I would argue that both of their campaigns are wasteful and simply unsustainable on a long-term basis.
- Thompson ended the year with $50,283 cash on hand, but he also has unpaid bills of $28,235. This means that he essentially ended the year with approximately $20,000 cash on hand, which is the lowest next to Farnsworth. Given his monthly expenses, I would argue that Thompson’s campaign is either dead in the water or running on fumes. I suspect that his announcement of a running mate was the last gasp as he attempts to gain momentum and save what appears to be a sinking ship.
- Zellers has $44,300 or 11% of his total receipts coming from out-of-state; however, I discovered what may be a red flag issue. Zellers received $21,000 from 38 individuals in 8 states (Missouri, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Illinois, Washington, DC, New Jersey, and Florida) and ALL 38 contributors listed Express Scripts, a mail-order pharmacy, as their employer. This raised a red flag in my mind. Is Express Scripts funneling money to Zellers through these individuals? What ties does Zellers have to Express Scripts? What will Express Scripts expect if he is elected? Is Express Scripts trying to skirt lobbyist regulations? I don’t know the answers to these questions, but it presents an interesting puzzle.
- Honour has $295,847 or 48-58% of his total receipts coming from out-of-state. It is 48% if you include his $101,000 loan to himself in total receipts and 58% if you exclude it. 189 of 368 total contributions to Honour’s campaign are from people outside of Minnesota and, in some cases, outside the United States (Singapore and London). 51% of all individuals contributing to Honour’s campaign are not Minnesotans. I counted 13 contributions from Beverly Hills, CA, 29 from Los Angeles, CA, and 16 from New York City. It appears that bankers, lawyers, and even an actress are the ones who think Honour would make a good governor. If you disregard the $295,847 that came from outside of Minnesota and the $101,000 loan that he gave himself then he only raised $217,919 from Minnesotans, which is less than both Johnson and Zellers. Further, the deep pockets that he tapped from outside of Minnesota often gave $4,000 so they cannot contribute again. I would argue both that Honour is not supported by the people of Minnesota and that his campaign is likely not sustainable due to fundraising concerns and wasteful spending. Having exhausted his out-of-state deep pockets and squandered the money, he must now look to the people of Minnesota or himself to fund his campaign. He ended the year with $14,251 on hand. I would argue that Honour’s campaign is more akin to the campaign of Farnsworth or Thompson and that Honour is nearly dead in the water or running on fumes.
Whether Dr. Kroger’s opinions hold up is subject to the test of time. Another thing that’ll require additional scrutiny is whether Marty Seifert can continue at his current fundraising pace. If he can, then he’ll be a formidable opponent for Gov. Dayton. Jeff Johnson’s figures aren’t gaudy but his burn rate is under control. That will matter over the course of a long campaign.
Each of these candidates would be a significant improvement over Gov. Dayton. It’s difficult to have faith in a politician who doesn’t know what’s in the bills he’s signed and negotiated.
Finally, tonight is precinct caucus night in Minnesota. If you want to shape this election, there’s no better place to be tonight than at your local precinct caucus. If you’ve never attended a precinct caucus, you’ll want to attend. It’s the best place to let your voice be heard. If you don’t know where your precinct caucus is being held, follow this link, then enter your zip code. It’s just that simple.
GOP gubernatorial candidate Marty Seifert is running on a reform-minded platform. One of the reforms he’ll push is elimination of the Met Council. Here’s Seifert’s statement on why the MC should disappear:
Dear Fellow Minnesotan,
As the start of a new year approaches, we can look forward to the opportunity for new leadership in our state in 2014. My campaign for governor is less than a month old, but our message of restoring leadership at the State Capitol is resonating across Minnesota.
Part of leadership is offering bold ideas to address critical problems. The Metropolitan Council is a major problem for the people of Minnesota and I am calling for it to be abolished. For far too long, the Met Council’s unelected bureaucrats have imposed higher taxes, burdensome regulations and “urban planning” without representation and against the will of local governments. This weekend’s Star Tribune called the Met Council a “master of imposition” – I encourage you to read the editorial.
I hope you will visit my website, learn more about the issues I am focusing on, and consider making a small donation to help our campaign finish this year strong. I’m asking for your support to dramatically downsize the size and scope of state government, reverse harmful taxes and regulations, bring real job growth to our economy and halt the damaging implications of Obamacare in Minnesota.
From my family to yours, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
No taxation without representation was one of the principles that started the Revolutionary War. Nearly 250 years later, Minnesota politicians think that taxation without representation is a great idea. The DFL and the Met Council’s lobbyists will fight against abolishing the Met Council if Rep. Seifert is elected. In fact, they’re likely to fight him to prevent him from becoming governor.
Here’s what Rep. Seifert said about abolishing the Met Council on his issues page:
Abolishment of three cabinet departments, in addition to complete elimination of the Metropolitan Council. Over a one-year period, the functions no longer required will be eliminated and needed functions will be transferred to local units of government or other cabinet departments.
Assuming that each part of the Met Council is essential is foolish. Ditto with cabinet offices.
Republicans should run on a positive, pro-growth reform agenda next year, whether they’re runnning for the legislature, governor, Congress or the US Senate. Telling the people how electing Republicans will lead to more prosperity with more disposable income and more representative government will sell.
Just telling people that the next Republican administration won’t rationalize a bureaucrat going on a 2-week vacation while her agency is in crisis will highlight the difference between Republicans and Democrats.
This article puts its finger on why the Affordable Care Act is likely to fail:
A recent Reuters poll found Obamacare may not attract enough young people to keep costs low for others, despite a headline that asserts the opposite: “Poll shows healthy young adults may keep Obamacare afloat.”
The conflict between headline and data represents a collision between the hopes of survey respondents and economic logic.
The poll found that a little more than a third of young adults in its survey had tried and failed to purchase health insurance in the past. It also found that a third hoped to be able to buy health insurance now.
Reuters figured if just half of them do so, “the White House would easily meet its goal of getting 2.7 million young adults, out of about 16 million uninsured 19-to-29-year-olds, to buy Obamacare insurance for 2014.”
Here’s the flaw with Reuters’ optimism:
This group couldn’t afford health insurance before, and Reuters never bothers to explain how they’ll afford it when it gets more expensive.
The other thing that the Obama administration isn’t talking about is how the Affordable Care Act will attract the additional young people over their initial projection to subsidize the additional 50-somethings that are getting kicked off their company-supported health insurance plans.
The initial estimates didn’t figure on businesses dropping their health insurance plans at the rate that they’re actually dropping their health insurance plans. That likely means that the 2.7 million figure needed to float the Affordable Care Act significantly underestimates the number of young people buying health insurance.
After the glitches are straightened out, mathematical reality will hit the Obama administration. The numbers simply won’t add up. It’s just that simple.